Economic Crosscurrents: Inflation, AI, and the Road to 2026

Tom isn't really sure about 
which way the economy is going
so he puts a few extra
stockpiles on the side
just in case. 

The Guardian recently published an interesting piece on the economic outlook for 2026. I have to admit, I’m somewhat surprised by the conclusions. A few months ago, I expected the economy to remain sluggish through the New Year—not collapsing, but not particularly strong either. Instead, it appears we’re on a growth trajectory. How stable that growth will be remains uncertain, but for now, the indicators suggest things are holding up reasonably well.

According to the report, inflation is expected to ease, though it will likely remain a concern in the bond market. Unemployment may increase as new technologies are adopted, and there will be continued pressure to accelerate AI development. Job displacement and replacement. All of these factors are still part of a broader, somewhat muddled economic picture, but they are key metrics worth watching closely.

Rapid AI development is a particular concern. While it has the potential to drive growth, it can also create bubbles—especially since many people don’t fully understand the technology yet continue to invest and push its adoption. Progress is difficult, if not impossible, to stop, so we’ll likely have to embrace AI much as we did the internet, accepting that both positive and negative consequences will emerge from the same technology. In the meantime, someone out there is certainly making a great deal of money.

At a personal level, the best approach is to practice sound fiscal judgment: keep your budget in order and be prepared to weather economic shifts. It would also be encouraging to see everyday people—those most affected by policy decisions—have a stronger voice in the decision-making process. They are often the most sensitive to price changes and economic disruptions, and their perspective offers an important lens through which these issues can be understood.

Five charts that explain the global economic outlook for 2026