US Business Activity Expands in September 2026-Inflation and Supply Chains Still Pose Risk

September 23rd, 2026

ESCANABA, MI.-Business activity is showing encouraging signs for companies looking for a reason to remain optimistic. Recent indicators point to stronger demand, expanding business activity, and renewed momentum in U.S. manufacturing.

The outlook is not without challenges. Rising costs, inflation, and continuing supply-chain pressures could create difficulties for businesses as demand increases. However, a growing market also creates opportunities.

For business leaders, understanding where the economy is expanding can provide valuable information for planning. Stronger demand may influence decisions about staffing, production, investment, inventory, and the allocation of other business resources. In a changing market, knowing where opportunities and risks are developing can help businesses prepare for what comes next. Whatever that is. 🤷

U.S. Business Activity Accelerates in September, but Inflation Pressures Intensify

• The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, marking the fastest business expansion since July 2021.
• Services remained a major source of growth, while manufacturing also strengthened. The Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.9 to 57.0, its strongest reading since May 2022.
• Employment increased sharply, with job creation reaching its fastest pace since June 2022 as businesses worked to meet stronger demand and growing backlogs.
• Supply-chain constraints are becoming more significant. Backlogs increased rapidly, delivery times lengthened, and companies reported difficulty finding suitable workers, limiting operating capacity.
• Inflation pressures also intensified. Input costs rose at the fastest rate in four years, driven particularly by higher fuel and transportation costs, while raw-material shortages and supply delays added pressure on manufacturers.

S&P Global. (2026, September 23). S&P Global flash US PMI: Business growth surges to fastest for over five years and job gains accelerate, but price pressures also intensify amid spike in costs [News release]. S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Richmond Feds' Barkin Discusses Inflation

Federal Reserve officials continue to watch several forces shaping the U.S. economy, including inflation, tariffs, energy costs, supply-chain pressures, and rising investment in technology. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin offers an important perspective because Federal Reserve leaders rely on extensive economic research and analysis when considering monetary policy.

For businesses and consumers, these economic pressures can influence prices, investment decisions, borrowing costs, and demand. Technology investment may improve productivity over time, but higher costs elsewhere in the economy can continue to put pressure on prices. Following the views of financial leaders such as Barkin provides a useful window into how policymakers are interpreting these competing forces and the challenges facing the economy.

Richmond Fed’s Barkin Explains Why the Fed Raised Interest Rates

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin explained that the recent 25-basis-point rate increase reflected concern that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while the labor market continues to show relative strength.
• July headline PCE inflation was 3.7% and core PCE inflation was 3.3%, with more than 60% of the PCE index increasing at an annual rate above 3%.
• Barkin noted that consumer spending and business investment remain strong, with substantial investment in artificial intelligence, improving manufacturing activity, and healthy business pipelines.
• He argued that inflationary pressures may be becoming more persistent as tariffs, energy costs, Middle East disruptions, AI-related supply-chain pressures, and other costs encourage businesses to pass higher expenses to customers.
• Looking ahead, Barkin said the Fed remains committed to returning inflation sustainably to 2%, while leaving open the possibility of additional rate increases depending on how inflation, employment, consumer demand, and investment develop.

Barkin, T. I. (2026, September 22). Why hike? Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Read the full speech

From Lifeguard to Swim Coach: Learning to Stay Ahead of the Splash

Recently, I made the transition from lifeguard to swim coach to help out. The assignment seemed simple enough: get in the pool, take a lane or two, and help some swimmers improve. Of course, swimming has a way of reminding one that knowing how to swim and knowing how to coach swimming are two different things.

One may be a good swimmer and lifeguard, but competitive swimming is about much more than simply moving through the water. Technique, timing, body position, efficiency, and individual skill levels all matter. So, naturally, one needs to sharpen those skills as well. The video below provides a useful refresher on the four primary competitive strokes.

(Illustrative Only)
Jack illustrates
why its important to
have a strong
launch off the
starting block
with your body
in proper alignment. 
To help swimmers
he invented
the belly flop, 
half committed
dive, that 
makes a big splash
and sound that echos
off the walls
and makes everyone
focus on the swimmer.🙃 It's
called the 
Red Belly Flop.

Swimming also remains one of the better all-around forms of exercise. It provides excellent cardio, develops muscle, and is relatively easy on the joints. In other words, one can get a serious workout without having to explain to the knees why they have been betrayed.

I also hold certifications as a fitness trainer and yoga instructor, so helping people stay active is becoming something of a recurring theme. Need a little help getting moving? Send a message, and one can work with you virtually. No swim cap required.

Swimming Coaches and Professional Development

• The study surveyed 123 swimming coaches from 41 countries about professional development and coaching practices.
• Most coaches regularly sought new knowledge through other coaches, online resources, seminars, and conferences.
• Coaching philosophy often developed through experience, reflection, and continued learning.
• Mentoring was common, with coaches also identifying swimming as a way to develop athletes’ self-discipline and confidence.
• Technology and performance analysis were increasingly used, highlighting the value of continued education and collaboration between coaches and sport scientists.

Dalamitros, A. A., et al. (2023). Swimming coaches’ professional development and training practices: An international survey. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 5, 1229066. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2023.1229066

Building an Entrepreneurial Community: Lifestyles and Environments That Can Appeal to Start-Ups?

Small and midsize communities may have more entrepreneurial potential than they realize. Economic clusters are often defined around specific industries, but the concept can also describe the many economic and social transactions that connect people within a community.

(Illustrative Only)
Start-up appeal
has a lot to do
with lifestyle...
and quality of life.

Everyday exchanges matter. Buying and selling, sharing information, attending club events, building friendships, making business connections, engaging with public services and investing in property all contribute to the local economic system. Together, these interactions create the environment in which businesses can grow.

Lifestyle is another important part of the equation. Entrepreneurs may be attracted not only by business opportunities but also by parks, waterfronts, recreation, arts, schools, sports, and a strong sense of community. These qualities can create the “buzz” that makes people want to move to an area, open a business, and put down roots.

Escanaba provides an interesting example. The waterfront, parks, financial institutions, schools, social organizations, businesses, and recreational opportunities represent assets that can work together as part of a larger entrepreneurial ecosystem. Anchor industries such as manufacturing, wood products, shipping, and boat repair can provide additional economic connections.

Think of it as a whole package sell. Lifestyle and 'Sense of Community' is important to entrepreneurs, the people who work here, and the people who visit (i.e. tourism which also support start-ups). 

The challenge is recognizing these assets and connecting them. A community that brings entrepreneurs, businesses, institutions, and community organizations together can create opportunities for new investment. Some businesses will succeed and others will fail, but entrepreneurship is often built on persistence and repeated attempts.

The larger opportunity is to show potential entrepreneurs why a community is worth investing in—not simply as a place to operate a business, but as a place to live, raise a family, participate, and build something that contributes to the next generation.

What Makes a City Entrepreneurial?

• Entrepreneurial cities develop ecosystems that fit their unique economic and community conditions.
• Universities, businesses, investors, mentors, and skilled workers help create a strong entrepreneurial environment.
• Successful businesses can encourage additional entrepreneurship by providing role models and resources.
• Midsize cities may have untapped human capital, businesses, and institutions that can support growth.
• Entrepreneurship includes both startups and existing businesses that expand, hire, invest, and enter new markets.

Sitarz, K. (2018, June 25). What makes a city entrepreneurial? Babson Thought & Action. https://entrepreneurship.babson.edu/what-makes-a-city-entrepreneurial/

Super El Nino and The Need for Protecting Our Environment

Climate change remains a growing concern as the planet continues to warm and communities face increasingly uncertain environmental conditions. Scientists widely attribute much of the recent warming to human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions and pollution.

The energy debate is closely connected to the issue. Renewable energy technologies continue to develop, while rising oil prices and geopolitical conflicts demonstrate the potential value of greater energy independence. A more diverse energy system could reduce exposure to oil shortages, embargoes, and international conflicts.

Climate change also creates regional uncertainty. Some areas may experience relatively favorable changes, while others could face greater flooding, extreme weather, water shortages, or infrastructure problems. For coastal communities such as San Diego, preparation may include emergency plans, evacuation routes, backup resources, and alternative transportation options.

Individual choices can help, but larger changes may require businesses, governments, and communities to make sustainable practices more affordable and convenient. The challenge is not simply changing personal behavior but creating systems in which environmentally responsible choices become normal.

Ultimately, the issue extends beyond climate and into economics and generational responsibility. Fossil fuels helped build the modern economy, but pollution and environmental damage have also created long-term costs. The question now is how to maintain economic development while protecting the environment we leave to future generations.

Interesting article,

Super El Niño Breaks Temperature Record

A strong El Niño event has already exceeded previous modern temperature records in the Pacific.

Climate models suggest the event could strengthen further later in 2026.

El Niño can alter weather patterns worldwide, contributing to droughts, floods, storms, and agricultural disruptions.

Scientists note that El Niño is occurring against an already warmer global climate.

The event highlights the importance of preparing communities and economies for changing weather conditions.

Carrington, D. (2026, September 21). ‘Jaw-dropping’ El Niño bursts through temperature record months before peak. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/21/super-el-nino-temperature-record

Start-Ups and Entrepreneurs Have the Power to Rejuvenate-Pathway to Start-Up Success (Escanaba and Gladstone)

November 21s 2026

WELLS, MI.-Startups, entrepreneurship, and the revitalization of downtowns and small towns are recurring themes on this blog because understanding how entrepreneurial ecosystems develop can help communities create lasting economic and social value. Rather than simply discussing these ideas in the abstract, we can examine research and consider how its findings might apply to communities such as Escanaba.

(Illustrative)
Is it possible to do
something new?
In Theory.
Perpetual Sustainable Development.
Time answers all questions. 

A recent systematic review examined 48 studies and identified numerous factors associated with startup success, including vision, leadership, adaptability, resilience, and prior experience. These characteristics are particularly relevant to small-town entrepreneurship, where business development often requires persistence and a willingness to learn from setbacks. Entrepreneurs may experience failure, adapt their strategies, and continue pursuing new opportunities. Resilience and perseverance therefore become important components of the entrepreneurial process.

However, successful startups depend on more than individual characteristics. Organizational capabilities, access to resources, collaboration, and the surrounding economic environment can also influence whether new businesses develop and survive. This is where community development becomes particularly important. In Escanaba, for example, downtown development efforts, local stakeholders, entrepreneurs, and community organizations can contribute to an environment in which businesses interact, collaborate, and create additional opportunities for one another.

The researchers also identify the need for additional research across industries, geographic regions, and stages of business development. This connects closely with the concept of industry clusters that we have explored on this blog. The question becomes how communities can organically develop interconnected businesses that meet market needs, strengthen local economic resilience, and compete in broader markets.

Ultimately, entrepreneurship should not be viewed solely as a mechanism for increasing the wealth of individual businesses. It can also be a tool for community development. When entrepreneurs, local institutions, investors, organizations, and residents contribute to a supportive ecosystem, new businesses can generate employment, retain wealth locally, strengthen downtowns, and contribute to long-term community development and generational value.

The Pathway to Startup Success

• The study reviews 48 empirical studies identifying 24 factors associated with startup success in developed and emerging markets.

• Entrepreneurial characteristics such as vision, leadership, adaptability, resilience, experience, and opportunity recognition can influence startup performance.

• Organizational capabilities, including teamwork, innovation, financial management, strategic planning, and marketing, are important to startup development.

• External factors such as government support, incubators, accelerators, and economic conditions can also affect startup outcomes.

• The authors call for more research across industries, regions, and stages of business development, particularly in emerging markets.

Argaw, Y. M., & Liu, Y. (2024). The pathway to startup success: A comprehensive systematic review of critical factors and the future research agenda in developed and emerging markets. Systems, 12(12), 541. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12120541

Enlightenment, Justice, and the Responsibility to Challenge Corruption (The Allegory of the Clan)

In The Allegory of the Clan, a philosophical story modeled after Plato’s Allegory of the Cave, the pursuit of enlightenment extends beyond personal awareness to the responsibilities of citizenship and social justice.

The society was founded on ideals of liberty, equality, religious freedom, and individual dignity. Yet, as history demonstrates, declaring universal principles does not eliminate discrimination. Human beings often favor those within their social groups, creating divisions that can undermine equal treatment and institutional trust.

Within the allegory, individuals who belonged to an out-group faced targeting, corruption, and a lack of meaningful recourse. Although witnesses were aware of the misconduct, some remained silent or withdrew not because of moral conviction, but because they feared personal consequences. This raises an important ethical distinction: Is a person committed to justice, or merely avoiding the consequences of wrongdoing?

These questions extend into economic and social development. Discrimination and exclusion can weaken trust, limit participation, and prevent societies from fully developing their human capital. When prejudice shapes how people perceive others, it creates unnecessary divisions that restrict cooperation and opportunity.

(Illustrative Only)

Ancient concepts of justice

are personified in scales 

of justice today. 

We weigh one's heart, soul, 

good & bad. 

Here is an ancient 

example of things like

justice and fairness 

being part of the earliest formations

of society. 

Book of the Dead for the Singer of Amun

Such concepts 

do not belong to a day or

time but to humanity itself.

This is also why

such philosophical ideals also exist during

modern times or codified

into Constitutions.

Strengthening society requires individuals to recognize corruption, challenge injustice peacefully, and uphold the principles of equality and liberty—even when doing so carries personal risks. Courts and institutions must serve justice rather than become instruments of discrimination or political retaliation.

Ultimately, enlightenment requires more than recognizing the truth. It demands the moral courage to act upon it. A society advances when its members defend the dignity and rights of others, including those outside their own social groups.

Sometimes listening to a broader swath of society comes with new solutions. Elect the best and brightest and not the most connected. 

Justice reactions to deviant ingroup members: Ingroup identity threat motivates utilitarian punishments

• The study examines how an offender's group membership (ingroup versus outgroup) and their typicality within that group influence the punishment motives of observers.

• Observers show significantly stronger utilitarian, exclusion-oriented punishment motives and weaker restorative motives when sanctioning an ingroup offender compared to an outgroup offender.

• Transgressions committed by typical ingroup members trigger higher levels of experienced ingroup identity threat because their actions jeopardize the group's moral image and social reputation.

• Ingroup identity threat serves as the primary psychological mediator that drives group members to favor exclusionary, utilitarian punishments to protect the group's identity.

• Highly identified group members experience greater identity threat and favor stronger utilitarian punishments against ingroup deviants, reflecting a heightened desire to safeguard the group's social standing.

Fousiani, K., Yzerbyt, V., Kteily, N. S., & Demoulin, S. (2019). Justice reactions to deviant ingroup members: Ingroup identity threat motivates utilitarian punishments. British Journal of Social Psychology, 58(4), 869-893. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6850106/