NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)-Housing as an Economic Indicator

(Illustrative Only)

There was a time

when we didn't need

a complex maze of

construction codes for

simple structures

that seem to cater to construction

companies more than

individual builders. 

These two might 

have been able to 

build a house for 

under $10 grand

and another $15 grand

for a little forest. 

Just fyi on

housing economics. 

How the Fed studies and

 understands housing’s key

 role in the economy

Housing remains an important indicator of the nation’s economic health, reflecting not only the strength of the housing market but also the financial well-being of American families. Changes in home sales, construction activity, and housing affordability can offer insight into how households are managing rising costs and broader economic pressures.

The recent dip in housing market activity aligns with other economic indicators suggesting a shift in overall economic performance. Inflation, mortgage rates, construction costs, and the rising price of single-family homes continue to influence the housing market, making homeownership increasingly challenging for many families.

Economic policy may also play a role in these trends. While oversight and regulation can help maintain stability, excessive management of economic systems may create unintended consequences that affect growth and performance. Understanding these factors is important when evaluating the causes of changes in the housing market.

Ultimately, improving economic performance and addressing the nation’s debt remain important considerations for long-term stability. Housing affordability and construction costs should remain central to this discussion, as changes in the market directly affect the average family and their ability to achieve and maintain homeownership.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

• Measures U.S. homebuilder confidence in the single-family housing market.
• Evaluates current home sales, expected sales over the next six months, and prospective buyer traffic.
• Uses a 0–100 scale; scores above 50 indicate optimism, while scores below 50 indicate pessimism.
• Builder confidence is influenced by mortgage rates, construction costs, inflation, and housing affordability.
• Helps predict housing market trends and changes in residential construction.

National Association of Home Builders. (n.d.). NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index

Firefighting: An Opportunity to Make a Difference

One might wonder whether firefighting could appeal to a new category of people—not just working-class and middle-class workers, but also young executives.

We often think of people as one-dimensional. If someone is a young executive just starting their career, we assume they need to spend their entire working life chained to a desk, as though that’s all they’re capable of doing. But we were built with bodies and physical capabilities, too.

Over the years, I’ve met many executives who are in excellent physical shape. They’re looking for opportunities not only to maintain their fitness but also to put it to constructive use. Firefighting could be an ideal way to do both.

Whether through part-time work or volunteering, firefighting offers an opportunity to serve the community. While you may not make much money doing it part-time or as a volunteer, the need for firefighters is significant—and growing in importance as climate change contributes to increasingly severe wildfires and other emergencies, often while department budgets are shrinking.

For some, firefighting might be a rewarding way to contribute on the side. For others, it could become a full-time career. The statistics below offer some interesting points to consider. Although overall firefighter numbers have been declining, the need for capable, well-trained firefighters certainly hasn’t disappeared, especially as we continue to see devastating forest fires and other emergencies.

I do some part-time firefighting myself, alongside other commitments, and I see firsthand how important these efforts are.

If you’re interested in supporting a fire department that is growing and attracting younger people, consider helping us invest in the future. We need funding for training, equipment, and other essential resources. There are many ways your contribution can make a meaningful difference in our community.

We also support smaller cities and towns throughout Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and the surrounding region. As our efforts grow, we’re becoming known as a regional training hub, helping strengthen the capabilities of departments across the area.

Your donation could go a long way toward building a stronger, better-equipped, and better-trained firefighting community.

If you’d like to help, simply send me a message using the contact option to the right.

Thank you for your support!

You may be interested in reading this...

State of Firefighting 2026

Escanaba Spooktacular Trunk or Treat-Spooky Economics Through the Conjouring of Ghosts, Witches and Goblins

Escanaba recently put on a Trunk-or-Treat and it was awesome. There was a fire truck, local businesses came out, and kids and families were having a great time. This is exactly what you want to see in a community, especially in a vibrant downtown area like Lundington Street. A lot more fun stuff going on these days.

This event was put on by the Downtown Development Authority (DDA). If you are looking to start a business downtown and invest in our community, the DDA would be more than happy to take your call or email. Escanaba DDA

(Illustrative Only)
Spooky Economics
through Ghosts, Witches
and Goblins

Beyond the immediate fun, let's consider the economic benefits. As established in research, social connections and economic development are closely intertwined. Events like this create social ties, helping people get to know and understand one another.

 Typically, stronger social engagement leads to stronger economic development—as people feel more connected to their community, they get involved and drive positive outcomes.

This is why economic growth often follows social growth. Tightly knit, highly social communities tend to be economically stronger and foster more startups.

 Escanaba has a fantastic opportunity to leverage both its sense of community and its potential in startups and tourism to become a thriving regional hotspot.

Be sure to review the study below for additional insights. I hope everyone had fun at the event—and to the kids out there, don't eat too much candy!

Escanaba Spooktacular Trunk or Treat draws roughly 2,000 people

Social Capital And Economic Mobility: Non-Technical Research Summary

• Friendship networks in the United States are heavily stratified by socioeconomic class, as individuals tend to form connections primarily with peers of similar income levels

• Children who grow up in communities with higher economic connectedness—meaning greater interaction between low- and high-income individuals—exhibit significantly higher rates of upward income mobility in adulthood

• Other dimensions of social capital, such as community cohesiveness and civic engagement, do not show a strong association with upward economic mobility

• Differences in economic connectedness can account for the established relationships between upward mobility and factors like neighborhood poverty rates and racial segregation

• The class-based social disconnection is driven equally by income segregation across various social settings and by friending bias within those settings

• Both exposure and friending bias are influenced by institutional structures and policies, meaning they can be modified through targeted local interventions

Chetty, R., Jackson, M. O., Kuchler, T., Stroebel, J., Hiller, A., Oppenheimer, S., & The Opportunity Insights Team. (2022). Social Capital And Economic Mobility: Non-Technical Research Summary. Opportunity Insights. https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/socialcapital_nontech.pdf

Amvets Sunday Game Day

Just in case you are a local veteran and want to come down during game day. Good club and people. 

Donations are tax free. 

Start-up Driven Innovation and Growth (Escanaba)

Escanaba is quietly becoming one of the Upper Peninsula’s best-kept secrets for entrepreneurs and young families. With a revitalized downtown, strong local infrastructure, and an unmatched quality of life, the city is positioning itself as a prime destination for new businesses and residents seeking a change of pace.

The heart of the community centers around its vibrant downtown, which features newly upgraded streets and sidewalks, rising tourism, and family-friendly events ranging from block parties to annual holiday celebrations. Combined with dependable public safety, a thriving arts scene, and endless outdoor activities like sailing and hiking, Escanaba offers a lifestyle that major metropolitan areas simply cannot match.

(Illustrative Only)

Local leaders emphasize that the town strikes a rare balance, offering big-city amenities alongside a welcoming, close-knit environment where neighbors genuinely know and support one another.

On the economic front, momentum is building. The arrival of Amazon, paired with highway upgrades, an regional airport, and active deep-water ports, provides strong transportation links for growing enterprises. The region offers ideal conditions for retail, tourism services, and light manufacturing or export businesses operating out of local industrial parks.

To maintain this growth, one might consider outreach efforts on young professionals in their thirties looking to start a family and establish a business, as well as mid-sized employers seeking room to expand.

Start-up driven innovation and growth

• The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) focuses on how start-up companies drive innovation, productivity, and long-term economic growth across global markets.

• High-growth firms and young enterprises play a critical role in generating employment, fostering technological advancements, and introducing disruptive business models.

• Government policies play a vital role in supporting entrepreneurial ecosystems by improving framework conditions, easing regulatory burdens, and enhancing access to finance and venture capital.

• Start-up policies also address structural challenges such as encouraging green and sustainable transitions, fostering digital transformation, and ensuring inclusivity within the innovation economy.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (n.d.). Start-up driven innovation and growth. Retrieved October 18, 2026, from https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/start-up-driven-innovation-and-growth.html

Solving Statistical Problems and Analytics in the Morning Over Coffee

Check your emails, solve a few math problems, tackle the statistics, balance your checkbook or engage in analytic strategic decision making over morning coffee. According to a recent study, morning is actually the peak time for deep, analytical thinking.

(Illustrative Only)
Brain Fog

Admittedly, that idea can sound counterintuitive when you first wake up. I usually start my day in a complete fog, relying on a warm cup of coffee to clear the haze. Jumping straight into complex problem-solving isn't always my first instinct.

However, upon reflection, the reasoning makes a lot of sense. A major factor is simply the lack of mental noise early in the day. Before the daily deluge of notifications and tasks takes over, your mind operates with a fresh level of clarity.

The research highlights how our natural brain rhythms dictate how we process information throughout the day. The early hours are uniquely primed for focused cognition before mental fatigue sets in.

Whether you're sitting down at your computer or mentally preparing for the day, mornings seem ideally suited for tackling tough problems—be it scientific analysis, personal accounting, or complex decision-making.

I can certainly echo that idea. Moving forward, I want to pay closer attention to whether my mornings are truly best for analytics, while leaving creative work for later in the day. (I actually don't think exactly like that. I won't get anlalytic about my schedule but it might influence in the background how I partition my day broadly. You can't put energy into everything including your schedule.)

I’m not looking to radically overhaul my daily routine, but simple awareness goes a long way. Recognizing these peak windows allows me to choose the right activity whenever the opportunity arises.

So grab that morning coffee, wake up, and start tackling those statistics, formulas, and critical decisions.

You can read this article. 

Finally, I Know Why I’m So Insanely Productive In The Morning

Economics, Ethics, and Institutional Integrity Leads to Growth (Allegory of the Clan)

Without checks and balances, systems quickly lose public trust and long-term support. Helping to restore that faith through justice and thoughtful integrity is essential. Those who seek the strengthen institutions are cut from a different cloth than those willing to dehumanize and undermine the rights of others (There is plenty of research on why people might misuse authority and those who do care little about society's needs.)

In our learning example, the Allegory of the Clan, bad actors misuse power to target minorities, exploite others, enrich themselves, and operate without consequences. If by chance they get caught they are given sweetheart deals. As a thought experiment, we can trace this dynamic to its natural line.

Imagine years of unchecked abuse where anyone who speaks up is targeted, and the system lacked meaningful mechanisms to stop it. Open bigotries to sexual exploitation normalized. When clear corruption was found they incentivized the perpetrators and victim dumped to please stakeholders. Credible voices were dismissed in favor of well-connected rumor-mongers with histories of manipulating others.

However, when those engaging in corruption are finally uncovered and held accountable, the turnaround is dramatic. Income rises, crime declines, recruitment into public service rises, community engagement rises, investment increases, because the foundation has been improved. These higher values are difficult for people with dark triad traits to understand (There is some indication their brains are hardwired differently and while they can understand conceptual terminology they don't often get it's deeper, implicit ☝, abstract or esoteric meanings. At least in theory.)

While you can't sell wisome and goodness to all judges, especially the more extreme and partisan ones, you do begin to grasp the deeper nature of the problem  The message becomes clear: We are free because we still believe in freedom and expect our leaders to do the same. Ethics isn't just for the average people but is just as relevant and expected by the most connected and vetted. 

Just like trust declines by doing the wrong thing it can be improved by doing the right thing. It is a choice that depends on your Northern Star.  What is your value system? Be thoughtful and reflective. 

*The Allegory of the Clan is a Hypothetical Thought Experiment so take with a grain of salt. You may accept, reject, change, or dismiss. All ok because there is no right or wrong answer. 

This study is sort of interesting as it relates economics to ethics.

Cultural Factors and Ethical Integrity

• The essay examines why ethical behavior and rule of law enforcement remain elusive in many developing countries, drawing on the author's extensive professional experience across more than eighty-five nations.

• It establishes a direct link between the rule of law, judicial integrity, and economic development, noting that strong legal institutions reduce investor risk and minimize opportunities for corruption.

• It defines corruption and identifies structural and systemic conditions—such as complex bureaucratic procedures, underpaid government workers, and inadequate oversight—that enable both petty and large-scale corruption.

• It explores specific cultural and socioeconomic factors in developing regions, including extreme poverty, the economic strain on middle-class professionals, and strong communal, familial, and ethnic obligations that can inadvertently conflict with formal ethical norms.

• It highlights practical solutions and reform measures implemented globally, such as streamlining business registration processes (e.g., creating one-stop shops) and reforming justice sectors to enhance transparency and governance.

Vapnek, J. (2016). Cultural factors and ethical integrity. Hastings International and Comparative Law Review, 39(1), 123-146. https://repository.uclawsf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1805&context=hastings_international_comparative_law_review