September 2026 University of Michigan Survey of Consumers Declines to 47.8

The latest University of Michigan Survey of Consumers points to some increasingly cautious consumers. September’s consumer sentiment reading fell to 47.8%, suggesting that households are becoming more pessimistic about economic conditions.

That matters because economic behavior and social behavior are closely connected. When consumers feel less confident about the economy, they may become more cautious about spending, making major purchases or visiting retailers. Over time, that could affect sales and other areas of the economy.

Recent economic data have produced some mixed signals, and the decline in sentiment adds another piece to the picture. The important question is whether this is a temporary change or the beginning of a broader shift in consumer behavior. 

Continued monitoring of consumer sentiment will help provide a clearer view of where the economy may be heading. It can impact business and sales among other things because much of the economy is tied to consumer spending (sentiment and spending habits)

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Expectations

• The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers measure how households view current economic conditions and their expectations for the future.
• Key measures include consumer sentiment, current economic conditions, and consumer expectations, providing an important indicator of household confidence.

• 

  (Source)

  The surveys also track inflation expectations, personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, interest rates, housing, vehicles, and household purchasing conditions.
• Preliminary September 2026 data show consumer sentiment at 47.8, down from 51.7 in August and 55.1 a year earlier.
• The survey is useful for understanding consumer behavior because expectations about prices, income, employment, and economic conditions can influence spending and other household decisions.

University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research. (2026). Surveys of consumers. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

A Case for Leadership Character and Ethics for Organizational Growth (The Allegory of the Clan)

Leadership is not simply about making good decisions; it is about making decisions grounded in ethics, values, and sound judgment. Good leaders consider the economy, society, resources, risks, and consequences. Starting with strong values can also prevent greater problems later and improve strategic options.

(Illustrative Only)
Ethics and 
Values are what
keeps us
healthy and strong. 
He encourages
the next generation
of leaders to stay
on the right path
and not get distracted
by money, hate, corruption
or the other dark
forces. Even
if they are lucrative. 

The Allegory of the Clan illustrates what happens when those values break down. In the hypothetical example, people misuse institutions, favor their own networks, impose their ideology, and target other groups. With few checks and balances, unethical behavior becomes normalized and even rewarded.

But when people begin challenging those poor values, the community starts to change. Economic activity improves, crime declines, and civic engagement increases. Problems that persisted for decades begin to reverse within just a few years.

The lesson is straightforward: positions of authority should go to people who can serve the broader community, not simply the most connected or ideologically aligned individuals. Checks and balances help protect institutions from corruption and abuse while encouraging stronger leadership.

Ultimately, ethical leadership benefits more than the individual leader. It strengthens institutions, communities, the economy, and public trust. Elect and select the best and brightest and not the most connected (or loudest in the room).

As you can tell values, character is profitable and good for society (The Truth North Values)

The Case for Leadership Character

• Leadership character goes beyond ethics and includes integrity, empathy, courage, self-awareness, determination, optimism, and curiosity.
• Research cited by Harvard Business Impact found that organizations led by CEOs with high character scores had average returns on assets five times higher than organizations with lower character scores.
• Character influences everyday decision-making and is important at all levels of an organization, not just among senior executives.
• Leaders shape organizational culture through their behavior, the standards they establish, and the decision-making environment they create.
• Character can be strengthened through feedback, coaching, practice, and role modeling, suggesting that organizations should develop character alongside traditional management skills.

Belcher, D. (2024, February 13). The case for leadership character. Harvard Business Impact. https://www.harvardbusiness.org/insight/the-case-for-leadership-character/

Consumer Prices Rie .4% in August 2026-Energy is the Culprit

Source BLS

Consumer prices rose about 0.4% in August, with prices up 3.4% from a year ago. Gasoline prices climbed 3.9% during the month. That will have impact in a few other areas. Core CPI also increased, while food prices are up 2.7% over the past year. Not looking particularly positive in this report. 

The biggest concern is energy. Energy prices have risen 16.3% over the past year, creating a significant headwind for consumers and businesses. Because energy is an important input throughout the economy, higher costs can spread across transportation, production, and other areas. 

For now, we can continue to watch the data and see whether these pressures begin to weigh more heavily on economic growth. They may be short lived or they may be longer. 

(Illustrative Only)
Joan comes in from
the cottage to buy some
supplies. She hands
over some money for
some lamp oil and
a gallon of gas for her
chainsaw. 
The clerk lets her
know the prices are
changing rapidly so 
stock up before
winter. 😔

Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in August 2026

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% in August, following a 0.1% increase in July.
• Consumer prices increased 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August, unchanged from July.
• Gasoline prices rose 3.9% in August, contributing more than one-third of the overall monthly increase. Energy prices increased 2.1%.
• Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% in August and 2.4% over the past year. Shelter prices rose 0.3% during the month and 3.0% over the year.
• Food prices increased 0.1% in August and 2.7% over the past year. Food-at-home prices were unchanged during the month, while food-away-from-home prices increased 0.3%.
• Energy remains a major inflation pressure, rising 16.3% over the past year, with gasoline prices up 27.4%.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, September 11). Consumer Price Index—August 2026. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Values of Volunteer Firefighters

The study below looks specifically at firefighters and volunteer firefighters. The vast majority of firefighters in this country are volunteers. We have more fires happening, and they are becoming larger and more common. At the same time, budgets are increasingly constrained, so people are volunteering their time and putting themselves at risk to help their communities.

(Illustrative Only)

Firefighters do a lot
of other important work
beyond fires. 
Ki Ki the kitty
is thankful. 

What makes volunteer and part-time firefighters different? They tend to carry strong pro-social values. They want to help their communities, make a commitment to one another within their fire departments, and build trust. These commitments often reflect a broader way of looking at the world and their responsibility to others.

Read the study below, and if you would like to donate to a local fire department or help in some way in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, I know a great one. Send me a message to the right. They have a lot of young people compared with many other fire departments, and those firefighters need training, resources, and equipment. If you would like to provide tax-deductible support, I can point you in the right direction.

Values in the Activities of Volunteer Fire Brigades: A Collective Case Study

• Volunteer fire brigades (VFBs) operate as self-organizing community entities that fulfill essential safety functions while simultaneously acting as key cultural and social hubs for local residents.

• Members view their commitment strictly as an unpaid public service, mission, or calling rather than work, which fosters personal virtues such as self-discipline, courage, generosity, and loyalty.

• The core organizational values driving these communities include trust, friendship, kindness, solidarity, respect, and collaborative ties with other local institutions and civic groups.

• Beyond emergency response, firefighters actively engage in community work, such as local infrastructure repairs, educational workshops, social events, and charitable projects.

• Long-term sustainability and local rootedness are maintained by passing down family traditions, preserving historical artifacts and chronicles, and integrating youth through Youth Fire Brigades.

Wrona, S. (2020). Values in the activities of volunteer fire brigades: A collective case study. International Journal of Contemporary Management, 19(4), 21 40.   https://doi.org/10.4467/24498939LJCM.20.012.13483

Producer Price Index Rises .4% in August 2026 with Final Demand 5.4% From Last Year (Energy's Influence)

The Producer Price Index rose about 0.4% in August, showing that producer prices remain elevated. Prices excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 0.3% and are up 4.7% from a year earlier. Overall final producer prices are up 5.4% over the past year.

A few points on energy....

Energy costs are a major reason for the increase. This also raises an important economic question: should we prioritize the lowest-cost energy sources, or maintain a diverse energy mix to reduce exposure when prices change? As renewable energy costs continue to fall, that balance becomes even more important to think about. 

(Illustrative Only). 

Jack the Squirrel teaches
the young squirrels in the
forest how to be energy
self sufficient. Probably
out in Garden MI.
Maybe Hiawatha
National Forest

They do things like that
out there. 🙃

Cheaper nuts
are awesome!

The larger point is simple: energy costs do not stay in the energy sector—they work their way through the economy and affect the prices of many other goods and services. Keeping them low can improve the economy but how to do that is a debate. 

Producer Price Indexes – August 2026

• The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% in August, after rising 0.1% in July and falling 0.1% in June.
• Final demand goods prices increased 1.1%, while final demand services rose 0.1%.
• Energy prices were a major driver, with final demand energy prices increasing 4.2%. Diesel fuel prices jumped 24.1%.
• Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3% in August and were up 4.7% over the previous 12 months.
• Overall, producer prices remain elevated, with final demand prices up 5.4% from August 2025. This suggests continued cost pressures for businesses, particularly from energy and transportation.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, September 10). Producer price indexes – August 2026. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Ending September 5th 2026 Fell Slightly-Stable Labor Market

Unemployment Claims fell a touch for the week ending September 5th 2026. Overall, the number is lower than in 2025, so I guess we're in a decent spot when it comes to unemployment insurance and overall labor-market stability. Michigan and California did have higher claims this week.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims — September 10, 2026

• Initial claims fell by 1,000 to 206,000 for the week ending September 5.
• The four-week moving average declined to 206,000, indicating relatively stable unemployment claims.
• Insured unemployment was 1.774 million, with the insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2%.
• Initial claims remained well below the 259,000 reported during the comparable week in 2025.
• Overall, the report indicates continued labor-market stability without a significant increase in new unemployment claims.

U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. (2026, September 10). Unemployment insurance weekly claims: September 5, 2026. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Could AI Destroy Humanity?-Some Scientists Think It is Possible

The article below from The Guardian is interesting because keeping up with technological developments helps us understand where these technologies may be headed. It provides some useful context for thinking about AI and its future. Our future with it or extinct from it. 🤷

(Illustrative Only)
Jack thought he could 
reject technology
by living in the woods. 
Technology came to find
him. 🤖
Floor cleaner
AI bots go rouge.

We are now seeing AI systems that can generate and modify their own code, improve their performance, and operate with increasing independence from their original developers. That raises an important question: at what point does the technology become difficult for humans to fully understand, manage, or control?

Some experts have warned that advanced AI could create significant risks, even suggesting a meaningful probability of catastrophic outcomes. When people are moving very quickly, competing for market share, and trying to be first, shortcuts can happen. And we all know that when you roll the dice often enough, eventually you roll the wrong number.

The bigger issue is what happens when AI becomes increasingly independent of human intervention. If a system can modify its own code and improve itself, we could reach a point where the developers are no longer completely in control of what they created. That is where the moral and practical questions become much more complicated.

This is the interesting—and slightly unsettling—part of technological progress: sometimes very smart people invent something before everyone has had time to think through all of its long-term consequences. Add billions of dollars, intense competition, corporate influence on political decision making, and a little human impatience, and you have a pretty powerful recipe.

Government regulation may help, but legislation typically moves much more slowly than technology. Once a technology exists, people can also find ways around the rules. So perhaps the goal should not be to stop innovation, but to become better at taking calculated risks, building safeguards, and thinking about the consequences before we discover them the hard way. or not?

AI Superintelligence Risks Raise Growing Concerns

• Experts warn advanced AI could pose serious risks to humanity.
• Some researchers estimate a meaningful chance of catastrophic outcomes.
• AI companies face pressure to develop systems quickly while improving safety.
• Critics also emphasize current risks such as misinformation, job losses, and cybersecurity.
• The article highlights the need for stronger AI governance and international cooperation.

The Guardian. (2026, September 9). AI could kill all humans in next decade, warn experts: But how seriously should we take them? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/09/ai-superintelligence-risks-warnings-scientists-politicians