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Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Something is Knotty: Refreshing Firefighter Knots (San Diego Drill Manual)

 For those of you who are full-time, part-time, or volunteer firefighters—in my case, a volunteer firefighter—it's important to stay current on your skills. The funny thing about firefighting is that you can pass all the tests, earn the certifications, hang them on the wall... and then realize three years later that you've forgotten how to tie a knot you once did in your sleep (Ok not really, I wasn't that good. 🙈 ).

(Illustrative Only)

Ziggy thinks 
he got this figure
8 on a bit down!
🙃
That's why training never really ends. Every practice gives you a chance to sharpen your skills and learn from firefighters who have years—sometimes decades—of experience. Your certification proves you met the minimum standard. The real learning starts after that. Those experienced firefighters have seen things that no textbook can teach, and if you're smart, you'll soak up as much of that knowledge as you can.

One of the best ways to stay sharp is to make learning part of your routine. Set little goals for yourself. Maybe this month it's getting better at tying rescue knots without having to pause, scratch your head, and secretly pull up YouTube to remember which end goes where. We've all been there!

The trick is to build muscle memory. Keep a short piece of rope on your desk, sit in your office, and practice while you're thinking through emails or waiting for a meeting to start. Tie the knot. Untie it. Tie it again. After you've done it a hundred times, your hands will know what to do before your brain even catches up. Then, every few months, pick the rope back up and give yourself a quick refresher. Skills fade if you don't use them, but they come back quickly when you practice.

I recently came across a training manual from the San Diego Fire-Rescue Department, and I thought it was pretty cool. Go San Diego! It's an amazing place—great beaches, great weather, and apparently some pretty solid training manuals, too. I don't fight fires there—I do that in Michigan—but it's always interesting to see how another department approaches training and what equipment they use.

I especially enjoyed reviewing the sections on rescue hardware like carabiners. It's been a while since I've done much climbing, so it was a nice refresher on current equipment and rescue systems.

The bottom line is simple: keep learning. Firefighting is one of those professions where staying curious can make you safer, more confident, and more effective. And if you're looking for a new skill to practice, grab a rope and start working on those knots. Your future self—and maybe your future rescue partner—will thank you.

*If your interested in donating tax free to an Upper Peninsula fire department with lots of young people and a commited crew send a message to the right and/or send me an email and I will point you in the right direction. muradabel@gmail.com

Ropes and Knots for Fire Service Rescue Operations

  • Explains the importance of ropes, knots, hitches, and rescue systems in fire service operations, emphasizing that proper selection, use, and maintenance are essential for firefighter and victim safety.
  • Reviews NFPA 2500 standards, including General Use, Technical Use, and Escape Use equipment ratings, as well as the Awareness, Operations, and Technician training levels for technical rescue personnel.
  • Describes rope rescue software and hardware, including static kernmantle rope, webbing, prusik cords, harnesses, carabiners, pulleys, descenders, clutches, edge protection, and inspection and maintenance procedures to ensure equipment reliability.
  • Covers the standard knots, hitches, and tool ties required by the San Diego Fire-Rescue Department, highlighting their applications, proper terminology, and the importance of standardized techniques to reduce errors during emergency operations.
  • Presents the fundamentals of rope rescue systems, including anchor selection, picket anchor systems, hauling and lowering systems, victim packaging, and the equipment used to safely perform high-angle and low-angle rescue operations.

San Diego Fire-Rescue Department. (2025, December 28). Drill Manual, Section 24: Ropes & Knots. San Diego Fire-Rescue Department.

Monday, July 27, 2026

US Economic Survey Mid 2026 SIFMA Economist Council: Real GDP, Inflation and Labor Projections

 Economic forecasts provide valuable insight into where analysts believe the economy is headed based on current conditions and historical trends. It's important to remember that forecasts are not guarantees—they assume that today's conditions remain relatively stable. When significant events occur, such as geopolitical conflicts, financial crises, or technological breakthroughs, those projections can change quickly. Reading projections like this help us what to expect going forward and how the market will act under various conditions. 

A good example is the period surrounding COVID-19. The economy experienced a sharp decline in GDP, followed by a rapid recovery before settling into a more stable pattern (currently emerging). Economists often refer to this as reaching a new equilibrium, or homeostasis. Today's economy is experiencing another major shift, this time driven by artificial intelligence. AI is accelerating productivity, investment, and innovation, and it has the potential to increase the overall speed of economic growth under certain circumstances.

However, technological progress alone is not enough. Every major economy is investing heavily in AI and advanced technologies, so remaining competitive requires doing more than simply keeping pace. The real question is what foundation we are building beneath these technological advances. Are we expanding manufacturing? Are we attracting new industries? Are our public policies encouraging investment, innovation, and workforce development? These are the factors that determine whether today's growth can be sustained over the long term.

Eventually, the AI-driven surge will mature, just as previous economic expansions have. The economy will likely settle into another period of more stable growth. The challenge will be whether that long-term growth outpaces other countries that are making similar investments. Success will depend on the strength of our institutions, workforce, infrastructure, and the decisions we make today. It will also depend on the incentives and lack of incentives for employees, entrepreneurs, and small business who help sustain the growth cycle (i.e. ....think broad based wealth generation versus concentrated.). 

Sorry I went on a soap box and digress, 

.........

Overall, this SIFMA forecast aligns closely with many other economic outlooks, making it another useful piece of the larger economic puzzle. While individual forecasts may differ slightly, most rely on similar economic indicators and statistical methods, so broad consensus is common. Differences typically arise when analysts weigh risks differently, apply alternative models, or anticipate changes that others have not yet incorporated into their forecasts. For that reason, no single forecast should be viewed in isolation. Instead, it is best used alongside other reputable projections to build a more complete understanding of the economy's potential direction.

You can read the projections by SIFMA below, 

SIFMA Mid-Year 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook: Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy

  • The SIFMA Economist Council forecasts U.S. real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027, supported by strong artificial intelligence (AI) investment but tempered by geopolitical uncertainty, higher energy prices, and slower consumer spending.
  • Inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target through 2027, with core PCE projected at 3.2% in 2026 before moderating to 2.5% in 2027, while most economists believe inflation expectations remain well anchored.
  • Survey participants anticipate the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady throughout 2026, with most expecting one or two rate cuts beginning in 2027 rather than additional rate hikes.
  • AI-related capital investment is viewed as the largest upside risk to economic growth, while an AI investment correction, escalating geopolitical tensions, and rising energy prices are considered the leading downside risks.
  • The labor market is expected to remain resilient, with unemployment holding near 4.3% through 2027 despite slower job growth and continued declines in labor force participation driven by demographic trends.

Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. (2026, July). U.S. economic survey: Mid-year 2026—Forecasts from the SIFMA Economist Council: Assessing the economic landscape and monetary policy. https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Mother Goose and Family Visits Beach-Lifeguard Saves Beach Day (Life Guard Lessons and the Fish Vest)

(Illustrative Only)

The Origins of Mother Goose

Some days, lifeguarding is all about watching swimmers, scanning the water, and soaking up the view. Other days...you're directing goose traffic.

We really do have some of the best beaches in the region. Clear water, beautiful shoreline, friendly people, and plenty of wildlife make this an incredible place to visit. It's easy to see why the area is becoming a popular tourist destination—and maybe even the next entrepreneurial hotspot. It's hard to beat a summer day here (Ideas....just bubble forward. 🙃).

Then there's the wildlife.

This morning started off like any other. On the lifeguard stand, keeping an eye on the swimmers, making sure all the kids were safe, when suddenly we heard it:

(Illustrative Only)

Tom saves the beach
from an invading army of geese
by inventing the fish
vest. The birds
chased him until
they were far away.
 The crowd
cheers at the beach
day save. Kids
can now play
safely again!
😏

Canadian Geese
"Honk! Honk! Honk!"

In the distance appeared what looked like Mother Goose herself (ok not really, but a lead goose yes), leading an entourage of about 30 Canada geese straight through the middle of the swimming area.

Apparently, no one had informed them that this was a designated beach.

Families stopped to watch. Kids pointed excitedly. Parents were saying, "Look at all the geese!" It was like an unexpected wildlife parade.

Everything was going perfectly...until the geese reached a swimmer standing in their path.

I called out, "Let's give the geese some room. Don't approach them—they can sometimes be protective." 

That got everyone's attention.

The swimmer stepped aside, and something funny happened. The geese actually stopped and waited. They politely stood there until the path was clear, then continued their march as if they had somewhere very important to be (They stopped to fish on the other side and now I know their secret fishing spot 🙊.)

It was one of those moments where nature reminds you who's really in charge.

The geese looked at me with an expression that seemed to say, "Your whistle has no power here."

Thankfully, everyone gave them space, the geese continued on their journey without incident, and Mother Goose successfully escorted her family along the shore of the beach.

Sometimes the best rescue is simply letting nature do its thing.

After all, you can enforce the swimming rules with people.

Geese? They're operating under an entirely different set of regulations.

How Lifeguards Respond to Marine Animal Threats

  • Lifeguards are trained to recognize and respond to hazards posed by marine animals such as jellyfish, stingrays, sharks, sea snakes, harmful algae, and marine bacteria through constant surveillance and environmental awareness.
  • Prevention is the first priority, using observation towers, binoculars, drones, ocean monitoring systems, and reports from marine agencies to identify potential threats before they endanger swimmers.
  • During incidents, lifeguards follow established emergency protocols that may include clearing the water, posting warnings, administering species-specific first aid, and coordinating with emergency responders and marine experts.
  • Training emphasizes realistic emergency drills, rapid decision-making under pressure, and effective public communication to minimize panic while maintaining beach safety.
  • Public education is an important part of the job, with lifeguards teaching beach visitors how to avoid risky encounters, recognize hazards, and respond appropriately if they encounter marine wildlife.

Harlanelio. (2025, June 19). How lifeguards deal with marine animal threats. Medium. https://medium.com/@harlanelio0011/how-lifeguards-deal-with-marine-animal-threats-4fdce4ccc640

Capturing History in Manistque: The Art and Story Behind a Great Lakes Lighthouse (Photography)

Manistique Light House Photo

I can print most pictures up to
poster size for $50
Frame (depends on frame.)
or Unframed. I try
and donate a significant
percentage to charity.
You may check out My Gallery
and Art Page. You may
also send the amount and 
size you want with $50
for any photo to
PayPal Photography
You can send me a message
to the right or
contact me at
muradabel@gmail.com
for questions or
special requests. 


 Art, photography, and history often come together in unique ways. For those who enjoy traveling and exploring the world, photography provides an opportunity to experience new places while capturing moments that tell a story. A photograph can become the starting point for learning about the history, culture, and significance behind a location.

A few months ago, I drove by this lighthouse and decided to stop and explore. It is easy to see from the highway, but taking the time to visit revealed much more—a beautiful historic structure, scenic views, and a nearby beach that makes it a great place to spend time. Places like this connect us to the past while offering incredible opportunities for photography.

If you enjoy Great Lakes history, waterfront scenery, or unique artwork, this lighthouse photograph would make a great addition to your home, studio, camp, or waterfront property. Each piece can be customized with different sizes, framing options, and presentation styles to match your space and preferences.

Manistique East Breakwater Light: A Beacon of Michigan’s Maritime Heritage

  • The Manistique East Breakwater Light was completed in 1916 to improve navigation and safely guide ships entering the harbor on Lake Michigan.
  • Illustrative Only.
    Helps you envision 
    what it looks like
    in your office or home.
    The lighthouse was constructed as part of a larger federal project to strengthen Manistique’s harbor with durable concrete breakwaters, replacing earlier timber structures.
  • Built with a steel tower on a concrete foundation, the lighthouse originally featured a fourth-order Fresnel lens that displayed a distinctive red beacon.
  • The light was automated in 1969 as shipping activity declined, and the original Fresnel lens was replaced with a modern acrylic optic.
  • Listed on the National Register of Historic Places in 2005, the lighthouse remains an enduring symbol of Manistique’s Great Lakes shipping and maritime history.

Fancy, M. (2026). Manistique East Breakwater Light history uncovered. Northern Michigan History. https://northernmichiganhistory.com/manistique-east-breakwater-light/




Leadership as a Foundation for Organizational Excellence

Leadership is what keeps organizations moving forward. Without effective leadership, progress is often slow, efforts become uncoordinated, and teams struggle to achieve common goals. Regardless of the type of organization, some individuals naturally demonstrate leadership qualities, while others may not. Conversely, there are also individuals who believe they are effective leaders but instead hinder the leadership potential of others in pursuit of personal agendas, influence, or recognition. Most people encounter these contrasting leadership styles at some point in their careers.

True leadership possesses qualities that are fundamentally different from the darker side of leadership. Effective leaders inspire trust, encourage collaboration, develop others, and create an environment where people can contribute their best work. In contrast, unhealthy leadership often relies on control, self-interest, or fear, ultimately weakening teams and organizations.

As you continue your executive development journey, it is important to focus on cultivating the positive characteristics of leadership that unite people and build strong, healthy organizations. Organizations that aspire to compete successfully over the long term must invest in developing their human capital. This involves not only recruiting and hiring capable leaders but also mentoring, developing, and establishing clear expectations for future leaders throughout the organization.

Ultimately, however, leadership development is a personal responsibility. While organizations can provide opportunities, resources, and guidance, each individual must choose their own path, commit to continuous learning, and make the decisions necessary to grow into an effective leader.

Effective Leadership: What Makes a Good Leader

  • Effective leadership begins with self-awareness, encouraging leaders to understand and leverage their natural strengths rather than trying to imitate others.
  • Gallup identifies four primary leadership domains—Executing, Influencing, Relationship Building, and Strategic Thinking—and recommends developing the strengths that come most naturally to you.
  • Strong leaders create clear goals, communicate a shared vision, and build trust by fostering engagement and empowering team members.
  • Leadership is not determined by job title; anyone can demonstrate leadership by guiding others toward meaningful outcomes through consistent actions and positive influence.
  • Leadership development is an ongoing process that includes understanding personal leadership style, recognizing blind spots, and balancing strengths across all leadership domains.

Gallup. (n.d.). Effective leadership: What makes a good leader. Gallup. https://www.gallup.com/cliftonstrengths/en/356072/how-to-be-better-leader.aspx

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Strengthening Institutions Through Reflection: Lessons from the Allegory of the Clan

Strong institutions are among the greatest assets of a healthy society. Most public institutions are filled with people who genuinely want to serve others, uphold the law, and strengthen their communities. These organizations are built upon shared principles, constitutional frameworks, the rule of law, oaths/promises/pledges, and systems of accountability designed to protect individual rights while promoting the common good. Over time, they evolve as societies learn, adapt, and refine the processes that support justice, opportunity, and stability.

Like any human organization, however, institutions are not immune to misconduct. Throughout history, individuals have occasionally misused positions of authority for personal gain, ideological purposes, or favoritism. Such behavior may include corruption, fraud, bribery, extortion, discrimination, extremism or protecting wrongdoing rather than correcting it. These actions are exceptions rather than the norm, but they demonstrate why effective oversight, transparency, and independent checks and balances remain essential.

Public trust is one of the most valuable resources an institution possesses. It doesn't come easy and it doesn't go away easy but the trends can tell you a lot about direction. When people believe that laws are applied fairly, they are more likely to participate in civic life, cooperate with public agencies, invest in their communities, and contribute to economic and social development. Trust encourages engagement, while engagement improves decision-making, and institutional performance. Conversely, when confidence in fairness declines, participation and cooperation often decline as well. 

(The future direction of science is less about defining into specific categories and branches and a litte more focused on cross integration. Keep in mind transactions as an economic and social construct.)

People naturally hold different beliefs, values, political opinions, religious convictions, and cultural identities. Responsible leadership requires the ability to rise above personal preferences when exercising public authority. Decisions should be guided by evidence, fairness, ethical standards, and the responsibilities of public office rather than by prejudice, favoritism, or personal relationships (We can look at this like a northern star or moral conscious that drives the rest of the thinking, logic and behaviors. Some have called this "soul" and other might call it a type of life blueprint. Other philosophers had other names for it depending on their era but it has been discussed throughout history. It is your worm at the core. Think neural economics or neural choices. We will discuss mirrors later. ) Maintaining this distinction is critical to preserving both institutional health and equal treatment of societal members.

The Allegory of the Clan is presented as a philosophical thought experiment intended to explore these broader themes. Inspired by Plato's Allegory of the Cave, it invites readers to examine how closed social systems, group loyalty, bias, and corruption can weaken institutions when accountability fails. The "Clan" is not a reference to any specific organization or group but serves as a philosophical model for examining how harmful behaviors may persist when individuals prioritize self-interest over ethical responsibility; or the greater resonsibilities to all of society (not just in-group).

Within this thought experiment, some individuals misuse authority, reward misconduct, excuse unethical behavior, blame victims, or allow prejudice to influence decision-making. These learning examples illustrate how weakened accountability mechanisms can create self-reinforcing systems in which misconduct becomes increasingly difficult to challenge. The focus is not on any particular institution but on understanding the structural conditions that can allow problems to persist if they are left unaddressed (There are deeper and wider natural systems that come into play.).

One important lesson is that institutional responsibility extends beyond individual officeholders. Leadership changes over time, yet the responsibility to improve systems remains. New leaders inherit both the strengths and weaknesses of the institutions they serve (...or at least they say they serve unless they are just serving themselves of course. Its not what you say but what you do that counts.). While they are not responsible for the actions of predecessors, they are responsible for identifying weaknesses, correcting problems where appropriate, and strengthening safeguards for the future. Where victims are present they inherate the responsibility as an institution to correct known wrongdoing in the name of justice. The institution is built on justice and therefore it must reach for the horizon in that sphere or it begins to falter. Technicalities, often used to sheild poor choices, have no moral weight against the essential purpose of an istitution. (This is a philosophical line of thinking as well. It is ok to disagree and/or debate. People change in systems but systems also transfer the responsibility onto the next person entrusted with an institution. There are natural consequences to brushing aside victims through narratives and misalignment of purpose. It reverberates into the collective conscious where it impacts broader perceptions and choices based on environment cues. i.e. rewarding bad over good.)

(Illustrative Only)

A philosopher encouraging
people to uphold the purpose,
not the technicalities of
systems. 

It is always best to vote
for the best and brightest
and not the most connected
to foster long-tail 
development. 
Constructive criticism (also devil's advocate) therefore plays an important role in institutional development (i.e. Why we protect freedom of speach as a primary cardinal rule of a modern society. If we silence victims through victim blaming or misleading narratives then we chipped at the shared understanding and duty toward those shared beliefs. It makes no difference if we agree or disagree but that it is natural to understand difference and distinction.) Recognizing the many dedicated public servants who perform their duties with integrity should go hand in hand with identifying areas where policies, oversight, or accountability can be improved. Healthy institutions are strengthened not by denying imperfections but by continually evaluating performance and making thoughtful adjustments.

(As an individual you must continue to adapt and improve, and as systems made of many individuals ,we must continue to adapt and improve. What happens if we don't change as a person but our environment changes around us? i.e. you need to be more competitive.)

History demonstrates that societies regularly reassess their institutions. Courts, legislatures, businesses, universities, nonprofits, and governments all evolve over time as new information becomes available and as public expectations change. Continuous improvement is a hallmark of resilient organizations. If they don't change or correct wrongdoing then it could be a data point to decline. Systems that encourage transparency, independent review, ethical leadership, and open dialogue are generally better equipped to maintain public confidence and adapt to new challenges.

Ultimately, every generation inherits institutions from those who came before and bears responsibility for improving them for those who follow. Strengthening accountability, encouraging independent thinking, promoting goodwill toward others, and fostering ethical leadership contribute to stronger institutions and healthier societies. Self-reflection should not be viewed as criticism alone but as an essential component of responsible governance and organizational learning.

The Allegory of the Clan should therefore be understood as a philosophical exercise designed to encourage discussion about ethics, accountability, institutional resilience, and continuous improvement.  Like many thought experiments, its purpose is to provide a framework for reflecting on how societies can better uphold justice, fairness, and the public trust. Take the exercise with a grain of salt. However if a slipper fits Dorthy.....

Public Corruption Convictions: Fraud and Bribery Dominate Federal Cases

  • A review of nearly 57,000 federal public corruption cases (1985–2015) found that fraud and bribery accounted for 76% of the lead charges in convictions.
  • Four categories—fraud, bribery, extortion, and conspiracy—collectively represented nearly all public corruption convictions during the study period.
  • Corruption patterns differed across levels of government: fraud was more common in federal cases, while bribery was more prevalent in local government cases, and extortion was especially significant in state-level cases.
  • Researchers identified eight common corrupt activities, including receiving or soliciting bribes, contract fraud, embezzlement, official misconduct, obstruction of justice, and regulatory violations.
  • The study suggests that stronger ethics education, institutional reforms, improved oversight, and early detection strategies could reduce opportunities for public corruption.

National Institute of Justice. (2020, June 5). A handful of unlawful behaviors, led by fraud and bribery, account for nearly all public corruption convictions since 1985. U.S. Department of Justice. https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/handful-unlawful-behaviors-led-fraud-and-bribery-account-nearly-all-public

Spear Fishing Adventures Multitool Spear with Hook & Line

 Continuing the Spearfishing Adventures... I wasn't 100% sure about Michigan's spearfishing regulations, so I decided to do what any responsible outdoorsman does: spend half my time reading regulations and the other half wondering if I was reading them correctly. 

(Illustrative Only)
Whitefish can
be caught with spear 
or traditional 🪝 hook.


Since spearfishing is still fairly new to me, I wanted to make sure I understood the rules. I love being in the water—swimming, snorkeling, fishing, staying in shape, and now hopefully adding a little legal spearfishing to the list. You must read it for yourself and make your own determinations.

After hearing about a dozen different opinions from a dozen different people, I finally decided to go straight to the source and emailed someone with the state who actually knows the regulations. Imagine that—asking the people who wrote the rules!

They explained that certain fish species listed in the regulations can be legally speared year-round (i.e. Catfish and Whitefish). They also pointed me to the sections covering inland lakes and other waters that you can spear in, along with the trout stream maps that show where restrictions apply. That cleared up a lot of confusion and opened up a whole new list of places to explore. As always, anyone interested should read the current Michigan regulations for themselves before heading out.

One interesting thing I learned is that you can legally fish with a hook & line while you're in the water. Ok not spear fishing but if your in the water already you might as well open options. Think of it as fly fishing...except you're the one swimming instead of standing on the bank looking dramatically into the sunset.

That gave me an idea. I rigged my spear so I could also carry a hook & line. If I come across a fish that isn't legal to spear—say, a bass—I can simply switch over to the hook on my spear with an artificial lure. As long as the fish voluntarily takes the bait and you're not snagging it, that's a completely different method of fishing. Then, if I happen to see a species that is legal to spear, I can switch back (It takes just a second). It's basically the snorkeling version of a multitool.

A rocky bottom
with foliage. 

Shoreline Fish Habitat


One spot I visited recently had plenty of rocks and a few fishermen nearby. Usually, when local anglers are standing somewhere for hours, it's either because the fishing is good...or they're avoiding chores at home. I didn't see anything that made me want to break out either the spear or the hook, but that's part of exploring. Every trip teaches you something.

The biggest surprise was the water temperature. Even though it's summer, the water was incredibly cold that day. Most days very nice. It felt like the lake had reached down into its freezer and sent the bottom water up to greet me. The surface should have been warm, but that cold water definitely let me know I was in the Great Lakes. Michigan has a funny way of reminding you that "summer" and "warm water" don't always belong in the same sentence.

eRegulations Bow and Spear Fishing Michigan

Inland Trout and Salmon Regulations map