U.S. Business Services Activity Shows Renewed Momentum: S&P Global US PMI August 2026

There is some encouraging economic news to report as U.S. business activity accelerated in August. After several economic indicators have largely been puttering along without showing a clear direction toward either strong growth or decline, this latest report offers a more positive signal. But it comes with some issues in terms of manufacturing weaknesses.

Services are emerging as a key driver of economic growth, although manufacturing remains an important part of a healthy economy. It is still relatively high but showed a decline recently. 

The report also points to increased hiring, with businesses adding new workers as confidence improves. Confidence has value in the market because on a psychological level it impacts perception and in turn investments (In Theory).

Perhaps most importantly, business owners appear to be becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook. While there are still challenges facing the economy, the August data provide some welcome evidence that business activity may be gaining momentum.

U.S. Business Growth Accelerates in August 2026

• U.S. business activity accelerated sharply in August, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising from 54.5 in July to 56.0, marking the fastest growth since April 2022.
• Services became the primary driver of economic growth, with the Services PMI reaching 56.8, while manufacturing growth weakened, with the Manufacturing PMI falling to 53.2.
• Employment improved significantly as businesses added workers at the fastest pace since January 2025, reflecting stronger confidence and fuller order books.
• Price pressures moderated, with input-cost growth slowing and selling-price inflation reaching its lowest rate since November, although energy costs, tariffs, and supply constraints continued to create inflationary risks.
• The outlook became more optimistic, with business expectations reaching a nine-month high; however, supply-chain delays and manufacturing constraints remained significant challenges to continued growth.

S&P Global. (2026, August 21). S&P Global flash US PMI®. S&P Global Market Intelligence. https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/552d682e429640fcb8af7da17ad060c3

The Lazy Person’s Guide to a Marina Barbecue

Hosting a barbecue sounds like a lot of work—unless you have discovered the ancient art of the potluck.

(Illustrative Only)

This is the method I use for marina barbecues, although it works pretty much anywhere there’s a grill, a bunch of people, and a reasonable chance that somebody remembered to bring food.

Step 1: Make Everyone Else Bring the Food

The first rule is simple: make it a potluck.

Everybody brings something, which means I get to do significantly less cooking and, more importantly, significantly less worrying about cooking.

There’s a grill available, so technically, this qualifies as a barbecue. You just need people to bring things to put on it.

I’ll pick up a few things myself, because I’m hosting and I do have some basic responsibilities. But generally, everybody brings something.

A good rule of thumb is:

• Bring your favorite beverage.
• If you’re going to call it a barbecue, bring some meat or fish.
• Bring at least one side dish.

That last part is optional, of course.

The beauty of this system is that if six people show up with snacks and nobody brings dinner, you can simply announce, “This is a tapas barbecue,” and pretend that was the plan.

Step 2: Keep the Cleanup-to-Fun Ratio Under Control

This is a marina barbecue. It’s outside. It’s casual. Nobody is expecting the Queen’s dining room.

So I like to use disposable stuff—paper plates, paper towels, plastic utensils, whatever makes sense. You eat, you toss it, and you move on with your life.

Just remember one important detail:

Bring a garbage can.

Otherwise, you’ve successfully eliminated the dishes and replaced them with a garbage problem.

And that’s not really progress.

The Real Point of the Barbecue

Of course, how you do this depends on who’s coming.

With this particular group, everybody already knows each other. We’ve been doing this for a long time. There’s no reason to impress anybody. We’re not trying to win a Michelin star for marina grilling.

We’re just getting people together to have some fun.

If you’re bringing new people into the group, there is a little more to think about. You could get strategic about it—maybe 60% people you already know and 40% new people, so the newcomers have a chance to meet everyone and get acclimated.

There are people who are very good at that kind of social networking. Socialites. Social climbers. People who seem to have a seating chart for their friendships.

I’m not really that strategic.

My approach is more:

“Hey, I met this person. They’re cool. Come on over.”

Then I introduce them to a few people and let nature take its course.

Why It Matters

And honestly, that’s probably the bigger point of the whole thing.

Life is a long journey, and the quality of your relationships has a pretty big impact on how you experience it.

You need good friends.

You need good family.

And it’s good to have a variety of people in your life—different personalities, different backgrounds, different perspectives. They keep things interesting and, occasionally, keep you from becoming completely ridiculous.

So yes, a marina barbecue is about burgers, fish, side dishes, drinks, paper plates, and figuring out who forgot the charcoal.

But mostly, it’s an excuse to get people together.

And sometimes that’s all the excuse you need.

Bring some food. Bring a drink. Bring a friend.

Summer BBQ Ettiquette

Earn Your Place at the Cookout

Firefighter Staffing Crisis: The Need to Recruit, Train, and Retain Volunteers

 Firefighters put themselves at significant risk, often with little financial compensation. Most of the nation’s fire departments are volunteer-based, meaning firefighters may receive only a small stipend for responding to emergencies. In some communities, that might be around $25 show up for fighting a fire, even if they spend eight hours in the elements rolling and pulling hoses, searching structures, and working in dangerous conditions. A special kind of devoted volunteers willingly sign up for that.

(Illustrative only)

Just saying this type of
activity can create
qualified leaders.
 

The staffing problem becomes even more apparent during major wildfires, when departments need additional personnel but often struggle to find enough qualified people. As extreme weather and large-scale fires appear to be becoming more frequent, regardless of how one views the causes, the demands on fire departments are likely to increase. At the same time, recruiting and retaining volunteers is becoming more difficult because the work requires significant training and carries substantial personal risk.

Low compensation is another major challenge. In some cases, someone could make considerably more working at a fast-food restaurant than volunteering as a firefighter. We need to think creatively about how to attract and retain people in these fields. For younger people who may not want to pursue military service, firefighting could provide another pathway. Some states have already experimented with incentives such as college assistance, and similar programs could be expanded.

For example, firefighters could receive free or subsidized college tuition after serving a specified number of years. Departments could also provide valuable technical training, such as mechanics, emergency equipment maintenance, or other certifications, in exchange for a commitment to serve (I sort of thought pairing firefighting training with leadership training-team building might work. 🤷). All that seem to strengthen responder capacity. These programs could give young people practical skills while strengthening the volunteer firefighting workforce.

Ultimately, communities need to consider the costs of hiring more full-time firefighters versus expanding volunteer programs through stipends, on-call pay, training incentives, and other forms of compensation. Either way, we are going to need more people capable of doing this work.

If you are interested in supporting a fire department in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula that currently has 12 young recruits who need training and equipment, send me a message to the right. I can connect you with the appropriate people.

U.S. Firefighters Face Critical Staffing Shortage Amid Severe Wildfire Season

• The U.S. Forest Service is facing a significant firefighter shortage as the 2026 wildfire season intensifies, with crews reporting that staffing levels are insufficient to meet growing demands.
• Recruitment and retention problems have been worsened by low pay, difficult working conditions, and employee departures; the Forest Service reportedly lost nearly half of its permanent workforce between 2021 and 2024.
• The shortage extends beyond frontline firefighters to experienced managers and supervisors, creating coordination problems and leaving some available equipment and contracted resources unused.
• The 2026 wildfire season has placed additional pressure on the system, with more than 49,200 fires burning over 7.2 million acres by August and more than 600 resource requests going unfilled during one 72-hour period.
• Staffing shortages are also limiting prevention efforts, including prescribed burns, raising concerns that inadequate investment in the firefighting workforce could make future wildfire seasons even more difficult to manage.

Canon, G. (2026, August 19). Firefighters sound alarm as US faces critical staffing shortage: ‘We don’t have enough people’. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/19/us-firefighters-staffing-shortage

Week Ending August15th, 2026 Unemployment Claims Fell 6,000 to 206K

The report doesn’t provide overwhelmingly positive news, but it is encouraging enough to say, “Hey, that’s not too bad.” Unemployment claims fell by 6,000, which is a positive sign. Employment is one of those areas we want to maximize because it helps create the circulation of wealth throughout the economy. We also want to see wages rising—not simply money becoming concentrated in fewer hands at the top. Ideally, more people are engaged in the workforce and are being appropriately compensated for their contributions. So, overall, this isn’t great news, but it’s certainly not bad news either.

U.S. Jobless Claims Show Mixed Labor-Market Signals

• Initial unemployment claims fell by 6,000 to 206,000 for the week ending August 15, 2026, following a revised 212,000 claims the previous week.
• Despite the weekly decline, the four-week moving average increased to 204,000, suggesting some underlying softening in labor-market conditions.
• Insured unemployment increased by 18,000 to 1.799 million, while the insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2%.
• Michigan recorded one of the largest increases in initial claims during the prior reporting week, rising by 1,931, while New York, Texas, and South Carolina also posted significant increases.
• Overall, claims remain below year-ago levels, but the rising four-week average and continued unemployment suggest the labor market is stable but showing some signs of moderation. The Department of Labor notes that initial claims are a leading economic indicator, while continued claims provide confirming evidence of economic direction.

U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. (2026, August 20). Unemployment insurance weekly claims: Seasonally adjusted data (Release No. USD L26-1413-NAT).

Judicial Independence, Accountability, and the Protection of Democracy (Allegory of the Clan)

 We continue to examine the legal dimensions of economic and social development. Institutions such as the courts were created to protect certain principles and values, maintain social order, safeguard individual rights, and ensure fair treatment. In a democracy, these ideas are rooted in a long philosophical tradition that predates our own country (Assuming you do not believe in second class citizens and that it applies to different religions and races.). History has shown what can happen when misuse of power becomes abusive, which is why even strong institutions must remain subject to appropriate checks and accountability.

(Illustrative Only)

Joe feels he owes more loyalty
to his politics, friends, and
bigotries than he does
to our shared social contracts.
Most do the right thing but
when they don't we have to
be concened about judicial
corruption to protect
the whole.

Courts, like any other institution, should be held accountable when there is evidence of misconduct. If judges or court officials knowingly ignored major civil-rights or constitutional violations, acted improperly to benefit friends or associates, or operated behind closed doors to protect particular interests, those actions would raise serious concerns about institutional responsibility. Simply avoiding misconduct because someone might get caught is not the same as choosing to do what is right.

This is why strong institutions require both support and scrutiny. We should recognize what institutions do well while also challenging behavior that undermines their purpose. Over time, concerns can emerge about unequal treatment, political influence, extreme bias, negligence, or other forms of institutional misconduct. These problems do not represent everyone within the system, but when they occur without meaningful checks and balances, they can undermine public confidence and the legitimacy of the institution itself.

In our Allegory of the Clan, which serves as a learning thought experiment about how a dysfunctional system can affect individuals and communities, we explore what happens when institutions tolerate targeting, mistreatment, favoritism, misuse of public resources, allowed for violence, or ideological hostility. The story also examines what happens when other institutions become aware of such conduct but choose to shift responsibility onto the victims rather than address the underlying problems. A common tool when a minority of officials misuse their positions.

The broader lesson is that systems need safeguards against internal abuse. We want qualified and ethical people serving in important positions, clear boundaries between political influence and judicial decision-making, and sufficient independence for courts to perform their responsibilities without political pressure. At the same time, judicial independence should not mean complete immunity from accountability. The goal is an appropriate balance: courts should be independent enough to resist political pressure while remaining accountable to the law and established institutional safeguards.

Ultimately, this is a learning thought experiment designed to help place these issues in context. Exploring the darker possibilities of institutional and judicial misuse allows us to better understand why checks and balances, accountability, independence, and ethical leadership are important. Ultimately it is in the spirit of improving functionality, outcomes, and fostering stronger social and economic developoment. As the allegory develops, the system will ultimately be corrected, because that is one of the purposes of a good allegory: to explore problems and demonstrate how they can be addressed.

*As a learning philosophical thought experiment there is no right or wrong answer. Only helpful and unhelpful ones. Alternative opinions are encouraged. Take with a grain of salt. 

Rebuilding Public Trust Through Better Judicial Communication

1. Public trust in the judiciary has declined significantly, with concerns about fairness, access to justice, political influence, and the growing perception of a two-tiered legal system.
2. The University of Washington research found a “culture of silence” among judges and legal professionals, driven by ethical concerns and the traditional belief that remaining publicly quiet protects judicial independence.
3. The lack of communications resources is also a major problem. Many courts have limited staff, funding, media training, and tools for engaging with the public, leaving others to shape the narrative about the judiciary.
4. The researchers argue that courts need to communicate more openly, clearly, and proactively without compromising judicial independence. Examples from Arizona and Taiwan demonstrate how modern communication strategies can improve public understanding and trust.
5. The central recommendation is for the judiciary to change its communication culture, invest in professional communications infrastructure, and develop an authentic narrative explaining the value of courts and the rule of law. Better communication cannot solve every structural problem, but it can help rebuild confidence and strengthen the relationship between courts and the public.

Mendy, J., Cowley, J., Finkley, I., Eggerding, M., Durran, A., Tomson, D. L., Grass, M., White, C., Spiro, E., & Starbird, K. (2026, May 14). A failure to communicate: Declining judicial trust and a new approach to institutional communication. Center for an Informed Public, University of Washington. 

US Leading Economic Indicators: Modest Future Short Term Growth

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index provides a useful way to understand the general pulse of the U.S. economy. The index declined 0.2% in June, with weak consumer expectations being one of the contributing factors. This suggests that consumers may have some uncertainty about the economy and their own financial prospects, which can influence purchasing and other economic activity.

At the same time, current economic conditions appear relatively stable, and the report points toward continued, moderate economic expansion. The GDP growth forecast was also revised upward to 1.9%. Overall, it is not a particularly negative report, but it is not signaling exceptional growth either. The economy appears to be steadily moving along without any major signs of acceleration or deterioration. That assessment also seems consistent with several of the other economic reports currently being released.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Point to Modest Near-Term Growth

• The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.2% in June 2026 to 99.1, partially reversing gains recorded in April and May.
• Despite the June decline, the LEI fell only 0.3% during the first half of 2026, a smaller decline than the 1.1% contraction recorded during the second half of 2025.
• Weak consumer expectations and declining building permits were major negative contributors, while the interest-rate spread, financial conditions, and stock prices provided some support.
• The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.2% in June, suggesting that current economic conditions remained relatively stable even as forward-looking indicators weakened.
• Overall, the indicators suggest continued but modest economic expansion. The Conference Board also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.9%, with business investment related to artificial intelligence expected to provide support while inflation improves.

The Conference Board. (2026, July 20). U.S. leading economic index declined in June and partially reversed gains from prior two months. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/

Federal Reserve Indicates Stable but Rising Inflation Pressure: Target Interest Stays 3.5% to 3.75% (Interest on Nuts)

(Illustrative Only)
Somewhere in
a large oak tree.
Because Hiawatha
National Forest
and Gwinn State Forest
area are protected
areas the chipmunks have
become sophisticated in
financial nut markets.
They discuss lending,
interest rates, the
nutty economy, so on 
and so forth. Their 
decisions impact the rest
of chipmunk society in
the forest.
(Sorry trying to
be inventive here.
It got a little nutty. 🙃)

Reading the Federal Open Market Committee minutes provides a useful snapshot of the current economic environment and the Federal Reserve’s thinking on monetary policy. Inflation remains a key concern, although it has eased somewhat, while the Fed has maintained its target interest-rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Officials also noted that the labor market remains relatively stable and that the economy continues to expand.

At the same time, policymakers recognize potential risks and the need for additional economic data before making further decisions. The importance of the minutes extends beyond the Federal Reserve itself. Banks, economists, investors and businesses closely follow the committee’s discussions and often adjust their expectations and decisions accordingly. For anyone trying to understand broader market conditions, the minutes offer valuable insight into the economic indicators policymakers are watching and the factors that could shape future decisions.

Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2021-2027)

Federal Reserve Signals Caution on Inflation as Three Officials Favor Rate Hike

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9–3 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, while three members favored a 25-basis-point increase.
• Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective. May PCE inflation was 4.1%, while core PCE inflation was 3.4%; staff estimated that inflation eased somewhat in June.
• Labor markets were viewed as relatively stable, with unemployment at 4.2% in June. Economic activity continued to expand, supported by consumer spending and strong AI-related business investment.
• Fed officials remained concerned about upside inflation risks from tariffs, energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and potentially stronger-than-expected demand associated with AI investment. Most expected inflation to decline gradually, but uncertainty remained substantial.
• The minutes suggest that future policy will depend heavily on incoming inflation and employment data. Several officials indicated that additional tightening could be necessary if inflation fails to move lower, making the September meeting particularly important for markets.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, July 29). Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm