What the Latest Leading Indicators Say About 2026? The Predictions of Forecasting!

(Illustrative Only)

Resources, mining, wood 
products, new businesses, 
cost of moving goods, data
processesing, AI businesses,
etc. depend on infrastructure
and new business investment.

The rise of small and medium businesses
that can adapt to environmental
and social factors could
help improve innovation
and employment. The 
concept of economic clusters
might help. 

Economics is always evolving. It’s an ongoing story of how people, markets, and industries interact. Analysts constantly try to predict where things are headed, but solid forecasting relies on scientific methods—clear data, defined markers, and comparisons to past situations with similar conditions.

Even then, predictions are never perfect. Unexpected events can shift the entire landscape, and the economy is full of unpredictable variables. It’s large, complex, influenced by human behavior, and ultimately expressed through numbers that can only capture part of the picture.

Current indicators suggest that early 2026 may start slowly, which aligns with what we’re seeing so far. Manufacturing growth isn’t as strong as hoped, and unemployment questions remain. AI also plays a role—its adoption may change how jobs function and reduce the creation of some traditional roles, reshaping parts of the labor market.

Still, some projections paint 2026 as a reasonably stable year. Ultimately, we’ll have to watch how events unfold.

U.S. Leading Indicators — Quick Summary Leading Market Indicators

• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks signals that point to future U.S. economic activity.

• The LEI fell 0.2% in December 2025, the fifth straight monthly decline, suggesting slow growth heading into 2026.

• Over the previous six months, the index dropped 1.2%, a smaller decline than earlier in the year.

• Financial components such as the yield spread and building permits helped support the index.

• Negative pressures came from weak consumer expectations, reduced manufacturing hours, lower new orders, and rising unemployment claims.

• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose 0.2%, showing modest growth.

• The Lagging Index slipped slightly after a small gain in the prior month.

• Overall, the indicators suggest continued economic softness but not an immediate downturn.

The Fish Pizza Experiment (Camp cooking)

Some of us love to cook and come up with great recipes. It’s a journey—you burn things, you undercook things, you question your life choices—and then one day it finally works. For me, bread was the troublemaker. No matter what I did, it came out looking like a sad paperweight. Eventually I realized the problem wasn’t the universe punishing me—it was just bad proportions. Once I fixed that, suddenly I was a “bread person.”

Over the last few months, I’ve leveled up. Now I can make regular bread, pita bread, pizza dough… basically, if it involves flour and yeast, I’m in. And once you know the basics, you get to do the fun part—tinkering with it like a mad scientist who smells like dough.

This pizza started the usual way: water, yeast, a bit of sugar to make the yeast happy, then flour until it becomes dough instead of soup. Let it sit somewhere warm for an hour—I usually pretend it’s at a spa—then punch it down like it owes you money, roll it out, and add sauce and toppings.

Now, toppings are where things get interesting. I like experimenting, sometimes too much. This time I put sardines on the pizza because why not? I once had shrimp on pizza and it was great. Sardines? Also pretty solid. Smelt might work. Tuna? Absolutely not. Never again. That was a one-time mistake, like cutting your own hair at 2 a.m. I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone unless you want your pizza to taste like regret.

Camp cooking makes all of this even more entertaining. You don’t have all your fancy tools or the exact ingredients you want, so you improvise. You become part chef, part survivor, part magician. But knowing the basics—like how to make dough that doesn’t double as a doorstop—gives you freedom. You can throw whatever you have on hand onto the pizza and hope for the best.

And honestly, that’s the fun of cooking. You experiment, you fail, you succeed, and sometimes you discover that sardines belong on pizza and tuna absolutely does not. It’s all part of the adventure.

Delta County MI Board of Commissioners Meeting (2/17/2026): Ordinance, Development Plan, and Cat Nip Ordinance Violations!

If your an investor, resident or just interested person you can watch the meetings and review the summary.

Summary of Delta County Board of Commissioners Meeting — Feb. 17, 2026  

(Illustrative Only)

Chewy thinks
the cats are the 
biggest culprits
of ordiance violations
around the county. 

It was the cats fault!😒🙈

The meeting opened with a prayer, the Pledge of Allegiance, roll call, and approval of the agenda and previous minutes (with one correction noting a commissioner’s statement was an opinion).

Public Hearing: Animal Control Ordinance

A public hearing was held on the proposed updated animal control ordinance. Several residents spoke, raising questions and concerns, including:

• Definitions and clarity:
  – Whether dog parks should be addressed under “dangerous animals.”
  – Whether the ordinance applies only to dogs and cats or other animals. 
  – Missing references to cats in some enforcement sections.
  – Practicality of enforcing cat restraint requirements.

• Licensing and kennels:
  – Difficulty navigating kennel licensing requirements between agencies.
  – Whether three animals is too low a threshold for being considered a kennel.
  – Concerns about township officials having to verify kennel compliance.

  

  (Illustrative only)
  
  Kee Kee 
  swears he is not a cat
  burglar. He left the
  yard to find some 
  cat nip. Its the
  dogs that violate 
  the ordinances!
  
  

  
  
  

  
  

  Enforcement and public safety:

• – Repeated problems with off-leash dogs in Gladstone.
  – Attacks on pets and safety concerns for children.
  – Tie-outs and electronic fences not effectively restraining animals.
  – Questions about how compliance will be ensured.

• Rural considerations:
  – Free-roaming farm cats used for rodent control and how the ordinance applies to agricultural settings.

• Legal and property-rights questions:
  – Suggested clarifications on who qualifies as an “animal control officer.”
  – Concerns about entering private property and Fourth Amendment implications.
  – Whether unlicensed animals should be seized or simply cited.

After public comment concluded, the board closed the hearing.

Administrative Updates

The county administrator reported:

• The county is transitioning its online payment system to BSNA for better integration; residents will see new payment screens.

• House Bill 5317 may allow smaller counties to reduce parks and recreation commission seats.

• The FY24 audit is complete; FY25 audit is scheduled.

• The county is seeking new members for the Brownfield Authority to reactivate it.

Committee Reports

• IT Committee: Discussed relocating the courthouse data center, online board packets, long-term transition to BSNA cloud services (several years out), and software/hardware updates.

• Finance Committee: Early budget planning has begun; discussed airport equipment repairs, Headlee rollback impacts, and 911 surcharge structure. The committee plans ongoing reviews of departmental financial snapshots.

General Business

• Bills totaling $359,587.34, plus commissioner expenses, were approved for payment.

*The summary was AI generated from the Youtube transcripts.

Funding Start-Ups and Attracting the Young to the UP/Delta County (Simon's Friends Play the Game of Life)

(Illustrative Only)

Simon and and few of his 
investor buddies are looking 
for a place they can invest
and start their business. 
(A couple of thoughts
Available Info and DC Multi Cluster
and Entrepreneurial Clusters,
and Branding Clusters
and Escanaba Downtown and
Ports).

They are playing the real
Game of Life
 They just need an idea,
a plan, a location, capital
and to Roll the Dice!
...and potato chips.

 Recent articles have highlighted population decline in Michigan, but the Upper Peninsula still has strong opportunities for growth. Several UP communities have smart zones that support development and finance new businesses. Delta County could strengthen its appeal to young talent. It sits at a central crossroads between the UP and Wisconsin, has a port, highway and rail access, an airport, manufacturing capacity, and a growing tourism sector. Large cruise ships even stop in Escanaba, bringing more visitors into the area.

With the right strategy, Delta County can attract more young people and revitalize its downtowns. Smart zones help. In addition, long-term strength comes from building economic resilience through connected business clusters (In theory).

When businesses interact, share resources, and support each other, they grow faster. Tourism helps manufacturing by improving retention. Events and activities raise quality of life, which encourages younger residents to stay. Education supports industry by improving skills. As business activity increases, so do housing options and tax revenue, creating even more room for growth. Each part reinforces the others.

Young entrepreneurs also need help with essentials—finding space, securing financing, connecting with mentors, and forming their business legally. Delta County could play a major role in guiding them through that process. Attract them, reach out to them, post inventment information, ect.

In recent years, Escanaba has begun to grow again after a long decline, with new businesses and more activity downtown. That progress can serve as a local example of what’s possible. By trying new ideas, learning from other regions, and focusing on exports, micro-manufacturing for scaling, and tourism, quality of life, the area can build lasting economic strength.

These recent articles show what other communities are doing to succeed and offer strategies Delta County can adapt to keep its momentum going.

Michigan saw a 2.2% decrease in population of people aged 18 to 64.

State Aging and UP Getting Younger

MLive County Growth/Decline

Michigan Smart Zones

Blessed Lent and Ramadan Mubarak: The Freedom to Exercise Your Religion

(Illustrative Only)

The dove and Eastern White
Pine represents peace.

This is a holy season for many people. Muslims have begun Ramadan, and Catholics have begun Lent, both spending this time in reflection and spiritual discipline. The insight gained from religion and its potential to raise and develop a person's capacity through reflection and insight are profound. Our very core as a nation is designed to foster the free exercise of religious practice

Consider, 

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." Congress Constitution

I tend to speak more from a spiritual perspective than a strictly religious one, but I think this season offers a good reminder for all of us—religious or not—to reflect on the Constitution and what it represents. It is built on core principles: there is no state religion, no one has the right to impose one's beliefs on others, and our institutions are not meant to promote any particular faith. That freedom protects everyone’s ability to worship—or not worship—as they choose.

If you study different religions, you start to see real similarities. Many of the core messages overlap, and those connections point us toward peace rather than conflict. People who try to force their religion on others often get caught up in minor differences and miss the broader wisdom other's traditions offer (Duty requires one to protect free religious practice no matter one's background.). Quality of character and leadership is based in part in the ability to understand freedom of religion and the broader benefits of togetherness.

We are at our best when we support each person’s right to practice their faith freely. What matters in this context is not which religion someone follows, but that their ability to practice it is protected. Religious traditions carry lessons about compassion, patience, humility, and becoming better people—lessons worth appreciating. I have learned from many religious. For those practicing over the next month or so I want to wish you a blessed Lent and Ramadan Mubarak. 

With knowledge and insight comes personal discovery. One can even learn from beyond these three religions.

What is Ramadan? and What is Lent? and What is Judaism?

As a reader you may want to reflect on history. One of the biggest most important words in each of the religions is peace. What helps mankind the most is peace.

Catholics and Muslims in Kosovo

The Evolving Fire Service: Aggressive Tactics, Safer Tools, Stronger Communities

(Illustrative Only)

Firefighting is an essential public service. As first responders, firefighters handle everything from structure fires and car accidents to search and rescue, traffic control, and fire education. Many serve as volunteers or part-timers simply because they want to support and protect their communities.

Firefighters are always training and adapting, and new technology plays a big role in keeping them effective and safe. But that technology requires funding. One department may need updated vehicle-extrication tools or a brush truck for grass fires, while another may need thermal imaging gear, improved air tanks, or additional training resources.

Reading publications like the one from the International Association of Fire Chiefs gives a good sense of what departments across the country are facing. In this case, the focus is on combining more aggressive tactics with greater safety—something technology helps make possible.

The faster a fire is controlled, the more lives are saved, the smaller the spread, and the less property is lost. If you’re interested in making a tax-deductible donation to a strong fire department in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula that could truly benefit from additional equipment funding, feel free to reach out and I’ll connect you with the right people.

What Firefighters Want in 2025: Aggressive + safe tactics

Summay of Article: 

• International Association of Fire Chiefs highlights that firefighters want to balance aggressive fire attack with strong safety practices, seeing them as complementary.
• Firefighters are looking for better technology integration, including wearables and real-time data tools that improve communication and situational awareness.
• Leadership development and expanded training remain major priorities across all ranks.
• Departments are concerned about funding, station construction, and modernizing infrastructure to meet future operational needs.
• Firefighters want safety culture strengthened through routine safety briefings and proactive integration of safety into tactical planning.

Trade Deficit in Nov., Dec. and 2025: The Theoretical Possibilities of Economic Development (Jeff reads books and plays with a puzzle)

(Illustrative Only)

There are opportunities
to rethink performance
and create a turnaround/renaissance
with modern tech and 
adaptive development
based in human nature.
(In theory). 

One way to do that is through
thinking broadly of the economy
and social development as
an interactive system. 
(In theory again)
Each factor impacts other 
factors. Growth
would require a holistic
perspective where 
elements enhance each
other. Maybe maybe not?
Not sure.🤔

Jeff thinks of a couple
of things might help but can't 
quite put his finger on the 
total solution even though
it seems to be there. He
has a woodworking job 
as well so he gets busy
and can't spend his time reading
books all day. Solving
puzzles takes a lot of time. 

He is reading about,
Hub Interactivity
Cross Structure Synergy
R&D, Taxes and Invest
Startups and Funding
Global Supply Chain
Economic Systems Thinking

Recent import and export numbers show that both November and December had trade deficits. Goods continued to drive most of the gap, while services provided a smaller surplus. The 2025 deficit was slightly smaller than in 2024, but not enough to indicate significant progress. To strengthen long-term growth, we need to create more value at home—not just in services, but also in high-value manufacturing.

Tariffs can help when used wisely. They can support new industries and counter unfair trade practices, but they should be applied carefully, and companies need time to adjust (supply chain adjustments). Trade agreements also matter; they should give the U.S. a fair playing field while keeping partnerships stable and mutually beneficial.

Energy expansion is another key area. We should  develop diversity and consider natural gas, solar, geothermal, nuclear, and any other sources we can scale responsibly while protecting the environment. Energy diversity can help in hedging changes in the energy market.

Human capital is essential as well. Reducing discrimination, improving access to education and job training, and helping people connect to good jobs strengthens competitiveness. Better governance also matters—less partisanship and more cooperation would speed up decision-making and improve economic outcomes.

Infrastructure ties everything together. Strong data networks, AI capacity, energy systems, transportation, and logistics help reduce business costs and attract investment. And while large companies are important, small and medium-sized businesses drive much of the innovation. To keep pace globally, we should consider building economic clusters that support fast experimentation and new ideas (This is more theory).

Just a few thoughts to consider:

• Adjust tariffs
• Adjust treaties going forward 
• Mimicking emerging economies with clusters
• Improve human capital
• Bi partisan focus and more access to government decision making.
• Maximize infrastructure synergy
• Adjust policy to improve small and medium innovative business

BEA Imports and Exports Nov. 2025

• The U.S. trade deficit widened to $56.8 billion in November 2025, up about 94.6% from October.

• Exports fell to $292.1 billion, a decrease of 3.6% from October.

• Imports rose to $348.9 billion, an increase of 5.0% from October.

• The overall change reflected a larger goods deficit and a slightly larger services surplus.

• Year-to-date through November, both exports (+6.3%) and imports (+5.8%) were higher than the same period in 2024, with the trade deficit up 4.1%.

• Goods exports declined in several categories, while many goods import categories—such as consumer and capital goods—saw increases.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December and Annual 2025

• In December 2025, the U.S. trade deficit was about $70.3 billion, larger than November’s $53.0 billion because exports fell and imports rose.

• December exports were about $287.3 billion, and imports were about $357.6 billion.

• The December change reflected a bigger goods deficit and a smaller services surplus.

• For the full year 2025, the overall trade deficit was about $901.5 billion, slightly smaller than in 2024.

• In 2025, exports increased by a little over $199 billion and imports increased by about $198 billion compared with 2024.

• Both goods and services exports and imports rose over the year.