Friday, January 3, 2025

January 2nd, 2024 Unemployment Claims Drop 9K (Economy and Labor)

The economy continues to move forward at a descent pace and that is likely to impact future interest rate cuts. Overall, it is good news that the U.S. economy stays resilient. There are some challenges we face because other nations are likely to start building their capacity as well. However, we are more advanced now in terms of infrastructure and that opens a few possibilities. US Dept. Of Labor Jan. 2nd, 2024

From my perspective I just want to know if we are working off a higher economic platform then we were prior to the Pandemic. We should be able to compare pre and post Covid performance benchmarks to see if there are clear differences (statistical analysis).

An argument is that Covid along with infrastructure investments potentially sped the economic transactions which improved GDP. That occurs through manufacturing and investment (theory development).

However, it’s not over yet. The next leg/stage of U.S. Renaissance appears to be here, and our steps may be important. There are many ways to look at the same problem.

With unemployment low we will likely see a combination of two routes of which one will add to the labor pool in key areas (international recruitment of high demand skills) and the other increase innovation and productivity (investments in technology, human capital, operational methods, etc.).

While reading the U.S. Dept. of Labor report or the news keep in mind that one data point doesn't represent the whole economy but can represent what might be going on with one aspect of the economy. Thus, ensure you read widely and different benchmarks that include factory orders, interest rates, investment, consumer spending, etc. 

In general, I would look at data that is updated regularly to understand what might be happening now but put that information within a broader historical trend (indicating an economic shift)

You can read Reuters article that provides a pretty strong analysis about other factors that are used in the assessment of the health of the economy. 

US weekly jobless claims hit eight-month low as labor market remains resilient

Mutikani, L. (January 2nd, 2024)
US weekly jobless claims hit eight-month low as labor market remains resilient. Rueters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2025-01

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