Sunday, January 19, 2025

Evidence Based Decision Making Through Intuition and Reflection (Executives and Career)

Improving decision making includes the elements of ability, information and process. We often think of evidence based strategic decision-making ability as purely an IQ affair but there must also be information and a method of evaluating that information. This makes it possible that anyone can improve their decision making if they can gain information and evaluate that information well. If you are an executive or manager of some type, you will want to improve your decision making to increase outcomes and return on effort/investment. If you do that well over time your organization will grow. Do it poorly and it will decline.

According to research, evidence-based management can reduce bias and improve decision making outcomes. The study found that reflecting on intuitive thoughts and then passive evaluating non informally over time can lead to increased decision-making accuracy (Criado-Perez, et. al. (2024). Stop, take a minute and think about all the options and soak up the environmental knowledge.

 A few tips on improving decision making executives should consider. Generally, I think that important decisions should go through a few decision-making frameworks. 

 1.) Understand your gut reaction and intuition but wait to act on them. Manager's intuition is a real thing! Our animal brain tells of concerns, issues, opportunities and risks but we should take some time to understand them and then evaluate their meaning. 

 2. Reflect on the situation and use the intuition to guide you on some of the pathways you can explore through evaluating logic and opportunity. Think of all the ways you can obtain the goal and what are the best ways with the resources you have.

 3. Investigate and understand the whole situation before making a final decision. Your intuition tells you something, your reflection tells you something and then the environment and its data should tell you something. Gain information through reading, understanding and researching.

 4. Review decisions through short, medium and long run mental frameworks. The decision making should increase options, and it should have advantages throughout the stages. Reviewing the problem and solution from different timeframes leads to higher performance and options.



Criado-Perez, C., Jackson, C., Minbashian, A. et al. Cognitive Reflection and Decision-Making Accuracy: Examining Their Relation and Boundary Conditions in the Context of Evidence-based Management. J Bus Psychol 39, 249–273 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10869-023-09883-x

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