Economic Survey Projection Results of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Bank Presidents 2024-2027

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 17–18, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year 2024 to 2027 and over the longer run. December 17th-18th, 2024-27 FOMC.

Keep in mind that these are based on a survey of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents. As a survey you are going to get into some stats. Median, Range, Central Tendency. Yes, we all hate stats but this is where those things in school can be helpful. Measures of Central Tendency

GDP median range for the next three years is 2.1 (2025), 2.0 (2026) and 1.9 (2027). 

You will also see they expect the unemployment rate to stay steady but dip a little from 4.3 to 4.2 after 2027.

PCE Inflation and Core PCE Inflation are expected to drop to about 2 % by 2027. PCE Inflation BEA

Federal Funds Rate is expected to decline to 2.9% in 2027. This means loans are cheaper, credit cards are cheaper but also businesses can borrow money cheaper which is likely to increase economic activity. This is also why investors and CEOs watch the rates often.

You can see that there is loose association between unemployment rate declining, inflation declining and the Federal Funds Rate declining. What does all that mean? This is where you sort of need to make a judgement based on reviewing studies and supported information. You still could be wrong because generally higher unemployment means slowing economy but that could also depend on technology and what type of jobs. It is possible to have a strong economy for some and others not so much. However, this relatively small dip could simply mean flat. Make your own judgement call.  Job, Inflation and the Fed.

(For my research purposes I'm wondering if we bumped up in our economic platform based in investment in our infrastructure and large jumps in technology which makes the economy more efficient with stronger feedback loops for decision making. Thus, what I hope to see is the economy stabalizing after COVID into a new homeostasis with overall better numbers then what we had before COVID. The U.S. grew significantly since COVID and is a leading economy so the downward trajectory has changed and as a nation we are enhancing our positions in the market. )