Friday, May 16, 2025

Zero Intelligence Trading Strategy: Not sure I'm convinced yet.

There is a concept called zero-intelligence stock trading that seems to reflect the constraints of the system and is about as effective as many other strategies. Before you get excited, the term zero-intelligence doesn't mean there is no strategy. It means that one is placing stock market bids randomly but if they can sell it for a profit they do so (wherever they put that %) and if they cannot sell it for a profit, they will hang onto it. You can read 0-Intelligence Stock Trading

To me if this strategy provides diversification of a portfolio and seems to be just as effective as other strategies, one might consider ensuring a certain percentage are picked randomly ( i.e. 30% or 10% are randomized). The random strategy would force diversification and possibly reduce volitity and bubbles within the portfolio.

I do believe there is a pretty big difference between those who watch the market and gain knowledge, utilize high quality systems to analyze options, etc. versus those who pick stocks based on strategies that are not really time tested. In such cases, randomization would seem just as attractive because average stock performance has general gone up. If you hang onto stocks long enough generally the market increases throughout history---so far!

For now, the strategy I am using is to actively pick stocks based on broader market trends and then holding them for mid-term seems to make some sense. I'm trying to pick exclusively American stocks and/or companies that have a significant footprint in our nation/area as well as capable of hedging industry development. My current portfolio is 34% up. Some bounced from 90% to 0% over the past year but that is reflective of general market volatility. It would seem like my general hedging strategy worked.

Keep in mind I'm looking at a cluster concept and whether or not stocks invested in anchor businesses have a level of stability. Likewise if stocks invested in newly emerging companies that feed those anchor businesses could be of benefit for industry development and faster portfolio growth i.e. pack investing. On a localized scale it might be investment in anchor industries and investment in start-ups that fill cluster needs (A long extentiono f Schumpeter's Creative Destruction, Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations and a touch of Keynesian government-industry). 

I'm not a stock broker and you should not take your stock advice from me. You may find this study interesting. Trading strategies and Financial Performances: A simulation approach



An Analysis of Judicial Corruption: Connections Between the Economy and Corruption and Hate

If you have been reading my blog for a while you know I am working on an economic theory based on micro transactions. That understanding rests on the hard economic principles and the softer social principles as influencing each other. During that research I came across a philosophical question of how corruption can impact economic growth? This aspect is important to explore because as corruption rises so does not only the loss to economic opportunity but also healthy social development and cohesion.

A fundamental question essentially, "What might be the impact of corruption (distorted micro transactions) and hate (limiting transactional potential) on the economy?" That in turn lets us look at things that can help build strong communities and with some luck economic clusters (potentially new industries. Unlikely to happen if corruption wins the day). The goal being to help the community versus just a small group of societal members that enrich themselves off unfettered protections for blatant misbehaviors. If you are part of one group you get more or less protections, seen as local versus non-local have a different set of rules, if your the "wrong" kind of person (racial, religious, etc.) you have less protections. People discuss openly how some can engage in any behavior they want with no legal protections or justice (...an intentionally closed and distorted system based in what appears to be influenced by judicial bias).

Microtransaction are normal patterns of business exchange and hate representing lost human capital needed by society. Corruption and hate can limit societal growth, cohesion, and economic/social development (go figure!). As additional patterns and resources become increasingly distorted the costs to society rise as performance declines. In our example social groups determined what type of rights some should have, whether or not their families are seen as having value, or the outcomes of cases (Openly bragged about dehumanization which is then protected and rewarded by clan affiliations.). Decisions were made that were not their right to make and ran against the very foundations of social trust (i.e. backroom conversations and target lists).

With corruption we find loss of resources because of changes in normal decision-making patterns that waste societal effort (i.e. economics as choice theory). In addition, as hate based behaviors increase, we also limit social cohesion and damage full human capital utilization through reduction in incentives and safety (Go figure!). The goal of the in-group was to block certain members of society and there were no laws or remorse for these potentially serious federal violations. 

A Hypothetical Example for Learning Purposes: 

A local "clan" receives special treatment in the courts and employment. A case in point is someone wanted some money and utilized their employment and social networks through hate-based rumor spreading (dehumanization campaign to normalize aggression against good people) to radicalize an existing corrupt network of officials (not including the vast majority of good officials). Whistleblowers, minorities, veteran's and out-group members were targeted in various forms that ranged from elder abuse to wholesale justice defaults.  Normal protections for freedom of speech, religion, race, etc. dismissed due to nearly non-existent checks-in-balances as courts/judge became tools for the technicalities of law and not their essential purposes (i.e. intentional misuse of the law that runs counter to the intent of law or society.).

Perpetrators were rewarded thereby normalizing hate and corruption while concerned citizens muted through retaliation and aggression. The "status quo" enforced through the misuse of law and public resources (corruption). Being designated with a "local" status comes with additional benefits (local as code word for homogeneous clan affiliation based not on the longevity of locality.). It was more than that, as the judge made decisions as to who is worthy of human/civil rights and who is above the law and its purpose. Local defined as race, religion and politics are different than local as in a geographic sense (i.e. Native Americans not seen as "local" despite predating European settlements). Victims have no/few rights under the law as practiced (We have seen this in history as a reflection of the dark side of human nature).

What makes this situation interesting is that the community rallied against some of the corrupted officials and in turn the community's economic and social prospects improved shortly thereafter.  However, because deep corruption requires specialized knowledge to uncover certain bad actors were left intact and shielded, indicating a complete judicial default (thwarting the will of the people and their pro-social needs). Investigations into perpetrators were blocked and investigations into people who complained opened. The culture of clan affiliates and internal "honor codes" being of more importance than the fundamental social contracts of society or the community itself. The possibility of judicial corruption and its impact on communities in our learning example rises. 

The following case study supports the idea that judicial corruption and hate could impact the economy in a negative way. It is importnat to fulill our oaths and values to ensure the entire system runs at peak performance. Therefore, ensuring we have people on the bench and in offices that serve the public is vitally important for long term institutional health that leads to robust development. If people engage in misconduct that will likely have an impact on economies that are based in free exchange and trust. If misbehaviors are rewarded and encouraged we run the risk of undermining the whole as trust plumments.

An analysis of judicial corruption and its causes: An objective governing-based approach


*This a hypothetical philosophical example for learning purposes so take with a grain of salt. 


Thursday, May 15, 2025

National Resource Directory (NRD): A First Stop Free Veteran Directory!

 

National Resource Directory (NRD) is a strong resource for looking up information for veterans (You can find resources for Escanaba and San Diego). Often it is knowing where to find information and who to contact that makes the biggest difference. One can browse the Internet and find a mixed bag of credible and non-credible sources. NRD ensures the resources have value to veterans. 

What does NRD do?

The NRD is a database of validated resources that supports recovery, rehabilitation, and reintegration for service members, veterans, family members, and caregivers.



(Part of a project I'm working on)

Analysis of Leadership Effectiveness in Organizational Knowledge Sharing Behavior

Leadership provides direction for an organization and a society. The world is full of uncertainties and as people make choices they naturally will weigh and balance the options. Because organizations and societies are collectives of people, they need leaders that understand the complex issues of the day and can create a vision that leads to collective action. 

In other words, if you have a sense of navigation and know where to turn the ship as well as how to organize the crew then you are more likely to achieve your destination.

Further, our modern world is based on increasing use of technology and the development of exceptional human capital. The ability to lead people by helping them navigate new technologies and develop the skills needed to use such technology in constructive ways can help companies adapt to change.

Leadership at the executive and "influencer" level indicates that the ability to influence perception and groups is powerful in accomplishing goals.

Consider the study below on leadership below and what does it tell you about strategy, free exchange of ideas, feedback, and the general concept of empowerment? (You can read the abstract, intro and conclusion/discussion)

A Study on Leadership:

As a result of the analysis of the research, it is seen that both leader effectiveness and knowledge sharing behavior positively affect the work performance of the employees within the organization.

Analysis of Leader Effectiveness in Organization and Knowledge Sharing Behavior on Employees and Organization

The study discusses how team members are encouraged to participate and to express their beliefs and opinions. Team members should always be well informed. The more feedback, the greater the integrity of the communication and sharing process. Increasing leadership effectiveness is based on the development of organizational adaptation and employee perceptions of leading characters, as well as other psychological empowerment factors.

Sonmez Cakir, F., & Adiguzel, Z. (2020). Analysis of Leader Effectiveness in Organization and Knowledge Sharing Behavior on Employees and Organization. SAGE Open, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244020914634 (Original work published 2020)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Donning Fire Gear Tutorial: Practice Makes Near Perfect!

The other day I was practicing with some other firefighters putting on our gear on fast. I post this video I found because I'm working on another project somewhere else. However, what I can say is that I often leave a strap or two out because I can't see it and others point it out. Typically, I might turn the airpack on just before I throw it on my back. It is hard to reach back there. Everything else is about the same. If you do it over and over you can get it down to a science as you ensure you put everything in your gear bag together the right way.

If you like this kind of stuff you might want to join your local department or donate to a local fire department. If your interested in donating send me a message to the right. 

   

World Economic Forum 2025 Outlook

According to the WEF it appears markets have stabalized and they encourage people to be more involved in the workforce. I think that can be done by using technology and continuing education to support constant learning and updating. It is helpful to read these reports to understand the performance of the markets and what things to focus on going on forward. These are projections so read widely different reports. They borrow from each other but emphasis different market aspects. 

World Economic Forum 2025 Outlook



Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Delta County MI Board of Commissioners Meeting (5/6/2025): Veteran Committee, Administration and Amtrak

Three major topics include taking care of veterans with the development of the Committee of County Veterans, possible Amtrak coming through town/UP, and new administrative positions. 

First, I think our veterans are an excellent group of people and I have come to know many over my life. Empowering them and maximizing their contributions to society is important not only to them but also society itself. I think of this from a village standpoint centuries ago. If warriors came back from helping and protecting our village, we would do our best to give them opportunities for a happy life.Sometimes we are removed from the curtain of how things could have been if we lost some of our wars. Thank you vets! 

Second, Amtrak could potentially bring a whole new tourist route and much of the track to Green Bay may already exist. With tourism ships and other investments, we are continuing the journey of transformation that could potentially create a shiny investment and vacation gem on the Great Lakes.

Third, if a position is designed well, it can generate more positive benefits than it costs. Streamlining some of the work might help in focusing on what provides the most value for people. No job is immune from bloat on trivial activities that generate little return (Yes, I have worked for many years and trust me time wasting activities just creeps in all the time.)