S&P 500 Global Business Outlook a Little Lower October 2026

The S&P 500 Global Business Outlook weakened slightly in October, declining from 37 to 32, suggesting some erosion in business confidence. Rising costs and inflation continue to concern businesses. Expectations for corporate profitability also declined from 21 to 16, indicating that companies are becoming less optimistic about how much money they will make in the near future. Capital expenditure expectations, however, remained relatively unchanged.

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This isn't necessarily a terrible report, but it does suggest some concern about a potential slowdown in business activity. Business confidence is important because it influences decisions about future spending, investments, hiring, and purchasing. When businesses become less confident, they may slow their spending, which can reduce transactions throughout the economy and contribute to slower economic growth. Of course, this is just one indicator, and it's important to examine it alongside other economic data to get a more complete picture of where the economy is heading. 

S&P Global US Business Outlook: Business Outlook Weakens During October Amid Uncertainty and Elevated Inflation Expectations

• US private sector confidence dropped as the headline net balance for business activity expectations fell from +37% in June to +32% in October.

• Inflation was the key headwind, pushing non-staff input cost expectations to +33% and staff costs to +42%, which drove selling price expectations up to +42%.

• Corporate profitability expectations fell from +21% in June to +16% in October, reaching a near three-year low.

• Employment growth expectations sank to +9%, marking the weakest outlook for job creation since June 2020.

• Capital expenditure plans remained steady at +16%, while R&D spending expectations edged up to +4%, driven partly by service-sector AI adoption.

S&P Global. (2026, November 11). Business outlook weakens during October amid uncertainty and elevated inflation expectations [Press release]. https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/586139708c2b4544a0adec25e9ba53e7