September 2026 Empire State Manufacturing Survey-Cautious Optimism

The September 2026 Empire State Manufacturing Survey points to modest growth in New York’s manufacturing sector, with new orders edging higher as businesses continue to navigate a challenging economic environment.

Employment also increased, providing a positive sign for the sector and raising an interesting question about how much of the broader employment gains are being driven by manufacturing. At the same time, supply-chain problems remain a concern, with manufacturers continuing to face disruptions and higher costs.

Inflationary pressure has also not disappeared. Businesses continue to report elevated input costs and higher prices, suggesting that inflation remains an issue for manufacturers and consumers alike.

Despite these challenges, manufacturers remain generally optimistic about future business conditions. That optimism may encourage companies to continue making investments and strategic decisions, even as they weigh uncertainty, changing costs and ongoing supply-chain risks.

For now, the picture is one of modest growth accompanied by continued economic variability—a market in which businesses have opportunities, but also plenty of risks to watch.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

• The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to measure manufacturing activity and business conditions in New York State.
• The survey asks manufacturers about changes in indicators such as new orders, shipments, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, and business conditions compared with the previous month.
• The survey also asks businesses about their expectations for these indicators approximately six months into the future, providing information about business sentiment and expected economic activity.
• The survey is sent to about 200 manufacturing executives, generally presidents or CEOs, with roughly 100 responses received each month. Respondents represent a broad range of manufacturing industries across New York State.
• The September 2026 survey showed modest manufacturing growth, with the general business conditions index at 7.6. Employment increased, the average workweek rose, and both input and selling-price increases accelerated, while firms remained generally optimistic about future activity.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2026). Empire State Manufacturing Survey. https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview