US Leading Economic Indicators: Modest Future Short Term Growth

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index provides a useful way to understand the general pulse of the U.S. economy. The index declined 0.2% in June, with weak consumer expectations being one of the contributing factors. This suggests that consumers may have some uncertainty about the economy and their own financial prospects, which can influence purchasing and other economic activity.

At the same time, current economic conditions appear relatively stable, and the report points toward continued, moderate economic expansion. The GDP growth forecast was also revised upward to 1.9%. Overall, it is not a particularly negative report, but it is not signaling exceptional growth either. The economy appears to be steadily moving along without any major signs of acceleration or deterioration. That assessment also seems consistent with several of the other economic reports currently being released.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Point to Modest Near-Term Growth

• The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.2% in June 2026 to 99.1, partially reversing gains recorded in April and May.
• Despite the June decline, the LEI fell only 0.3% during the first half of 2026, a smaller decline than the 1.1% contraction recorded during the second half of 2025.
• Weak consumer expectations and declining building permits were major negative contributors, while the interest-rate spread, financial conditions, and stock prices provided some support.
• The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.2% in June, suggesting that current economic conditions remained relatively stable even as forward-looking indicators weakened.
• Overall, the indicators suggest continued but modest economic expansion. The Conference Board also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.9%, with business investment related to artificial intelligence expected to provide support while inflation improves.

The Conference Board. (2026, July 20). U.S. leading economic index declined in June and partially reversed gains from prior two months. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/