JPMorgan's 2026 US Business Leaders Outlook

The JPMorgan 2026 survey suggests that business leaders are entering this year with a more stable outlook, although optimism remains measured rather than robust. Approximately 39% of business leaders expressed optimism about the broader economy. Interestingly, many leaders are more confident in the prospects of their own organizations than in the overall market, indicating a belief that their companies can outperform broader economic trends.

Many respondents anticipate increased revenues and profits, which is encouraging for both businesses and the economy. Stronger profitability can lead to expansion, job creation, and increased tax revenues that support public services and infrastructure. As a nation, it is important to foster an environment where businesses of all sizes can thrive and compete globally. While large corporations often receive significant attention, a healthy economy depends on a balanced mix of both large and small businesses. Smaller firms frequently drive innovation, entrepreneurship, and local economic development, while larger organizations provide scale, investment, and global reach.

Despite the generally positive outlook, economic uncertainty remains a concern. Although slightly more than half of business leaders do not expect a recession, a significant number still see potential economic risks ahead. This caution reflects ongoing concerns about market conditions, inflationary pressures, geopolitical events, and other factors that could affect growth.

The survey also highlights the growing influence of artificial intelligence on business operations and economic development. AI continues to create opportunities for increased productivity, efficiency, and innovation. However, as organizations adopt these technologies, it will be important to invest in human capital alongside technological advancement. Developing workforce skills, expanding educational opportunities, and helping employees adapt to changing workplace demands will be essential to ensuring that the benefits of AI contribute to broad-based economic growth and long-term prosperity.

JPMorgan 2026 U.S. Business Leaders Outlook: Optimism, Growth, and Resilience Amid Uncertainty

• U.S. business leaders entered 2026 with a more stable outlook after a volatile 2025, though optimism remains below the highs seen in previous years.
• Thirty-nine percent of respondents are optimistic about the national economy, while 71% remain optimistic about their own companies’ performance.
• Global economic sentiment remains cautious, with 73% of leaders expressing neutral or pessimistic views about the global economy.
• Seventy-three percent of business leaders expect revenue growth in 2026, and 64% anticipate increased profits.
• Nearly half (48%) of respondents plan to increase hiring, demonstrating continued confidence in future growth.
• Fifty-one percent of leaders do not expect a recession in 2026, while 27% believe a recession is possible or already occurring.
• Economic uncertainty is the most frequently cited challenge, identified by 49% of respondents. Revenue growth concerns rank second at 33%.
• Tariffs remain a significant issue, with 61% of business leaders reporting a moderate or significant negative impact on costs.
• Product and service innovation remains a key growth strategy, with 58% planning new offerings in 2026.
• Interest in strategic partnerships, investments, and mergers and acquisitions continues to rise, reflecting a focus on expansion opportunities.
• Artificial intelligence is increasingly influencing business operations, particularly through process automation, predictive analytics, and market intelligence applications.
• Twenty-seven percent of leaders expect AI to affect workforce planning and staffing decisions during 2026.
• Innovation Economy firms, including startups and venture-backed companies, report higher levels of company and industry optimism but also express greater concern about recession risks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (2026, January 7). 2026 U.S. Business Leaders Outlook: Expectations & trends. J.P. Morgan. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/business-leaders-outlook/2026-us-business-leaders-outlook