New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Mediocre Labor Market Conditions (Jack Starts His Own Business)

(Illustrative Only)

Labor market is mediocre
so this person
started to think of options.

Jack works as a carpenter
and realized while hiking 
the Bay de Noc Grand Island
National Trail that
he could make custom cups 
for people and restraurants. 
The best ideas often come
in nature. He is thinking of
partnering with a shop
on Ludington Street to
sell his products because
he is a small operator,
doesn't want a store, but
wants to provide a commission
sale for stores. A win for
them who don't have to
pay for inventory. 

Labor market expectations appear moderate—neither strong nor weak—mirroring trends seen in other economic indicators. Many businesses are taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach, which may slow hiring and workforce development. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties could also influence future employment decisions, though the full impact remains unclear.

Current data suggest that about 45–46% of individuals believe they could find a new job if they lost one, while the perceived risk of job loss is around 14.4%. This indicates a level of underlying concern about job security. 

At the same time, household financial outlooks have weakened slightly, with more people expecting this year to be less favorable than the last. Confidence in career advancement is also limited, reflecting a relatively stagnant environment where both workers and employers are hesitant to make major moves.

Overall, this uncertainty affects decision-making at both the individual and organizational levels. As conditions remain unclear, it will be important to monitor additional economic indicators to better understand where the labor market is headed. Movement on strategic initiaves and hiring may be slower than usual over the mid term. 

Let us wait and see....

New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor Market Experiences and Transitions Summary

• The Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) follows about 1,300 U.S. households over time to track job experiences, employment transitions, and expectations about the labor market.
• Data indicate mixed labor market sentiment, with the probability of finding a job after losing one around 45.9%, while the perceived likelihood of job loss is about 14.4%.
• Expected earnings growth remains relatively modest, typically in the range of about 2.5% to 2.7%, with differences across income levels.
• Confidence in job mobility has fluctuated, including declines in voluntary quitting and changes in expectations about finding new employment.
• Household financial outlooks have weakened, with more individuals expecting their financial situation to worsen compared to the previous year.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2026). Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor market experiences and transitions. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/experiences-transitions1