Oct. 2025 Hiring and Labor Turnover Report (John Decides to Custom Cut His Firewood)

John realizes he can't compete
with large corporations that 
others have argued obtain benefits
that small businesses won't have
because of proximity and campaign
contributions.
 Understanding his 
environment he decides to 
connect more with his
customers and business owners
to provide more customization.
He can compete by providing
much better service and truly
listening to customer needs.

Local gas stations
want one type and size,
people who use wood boilers have another,
fireplace has another, customers at
the Escanaba farmer's market
have their requests,
 and those who cook/smoke fish with
wood have still another.

Heck! Even Tom the Wood Widdler just 
past the Ford River Bridge has
his special requests! That is
way out there!

He knows
his wood and he knows his customers.
Through a survey he created
he learned that customers would
pay more for him to deliver.

Strategically he increased
his delivery capacity 
by sharing a mule with 
his small farmer neighbor.
Now he doesn't have to haul
his cart up hill both ways
like they did in the old days. 😏

Profits up 15%!

John learned by 
reading about economics 
and the global lumber market!

The more we understand our economic environment, the better decisions we can make for our businesses or the departments under our care. Reviewing hiring and separation trends across industries helps us see the fluidity and shifts taking place. Each metric captures only a small part of the picture, so the more we read, learn, and interpret, the better positioned we are to guide organizations toward long-term success. 

Looking at the numbers below, they seem fairly lukewarm—nothing particularly strong or weak. Low hiring paired with high discharges can signal a declining industry, while high hiring and low discharges may indicate growth and stronger talent retention. Overall, the current figures appear relatively neutral.

October 2025 Job Openings and Turnover

It’s important to consider which industries are expanding or contracting over the long term to understand broader adjustments. Natural fluctuations occur from month to month, so single data points rarely tell a complete story. Observing multi-month trends, along with staying informed about relevant news and events, provides a more holistic understanding of the market.

As we analyze industry changes, broader market shifts often begin to emerge. Always remember that any one metric is limited unless viewed alongside others. Metrics are imperfect—they don’t capture every nuance of the economy and rely on certain assumptions. That’s why sound judgment and strategic thinking remain essential in any major decision.

A few things I noticed:

• Mining and logging: Hiring and separations remain about the same.

• Manufacturing: Hiring is slightly down, and separations are also slightly down.

• Transportation, warehousing, and utilities: Hiring is up while separations are down.

• Federal government: Hiring is flat, and separations are down.

• Construction: Hiring is down, and separations are down.

How would you interpret the findings? Economists are often wrong so it is ok to be wrong. I see at the moment stability, low growth, with some shifting underlining trends. I'm not calculating or data crunching but just sort of putting my finger in the air to see which way it is blowing. To make a much more accurate spit ball projection would require a lot of digging and work so that isn't on my list in the next 15 minutes. 

Table A. Job openings, hires, and total separations by industry, seasonally adjusted