September Job Report and Forecasting Job Changes Methods (Fortune Tellers and Crystal Balls)

The most recent job reports are interesting. Approximately 119,000 jobs were created, and the unemployment rate remains around 4.4%. Most of the gains occurred in health care services, social assistance, and individual and family services. Job losses were concentrated in warehousing, storage, and courier and messenger services. You can read all that in the November 20, 2025 BLS release.

One reason economists have been “all over the map” is that the economy is no longer behaving as traditional models would predict. As our world becomes increasingly digital, some economic assumptions and measurement tools may need to be updated to better capture modern activities. AI is likely to help in that aspect. Governments will continue relying on foundational data collection methods until new, validated approaches emerge, but scientific interpretation and modeling will inevitably evolve—as they do in every field when the environment changes. Economics is no exception.

Representing a forecaster.

Yes I see it now...
Its becoming clearer in my crystal ball,
the hazy clouds dissipating...
.......
here it is....

I should enjoy today
and have goals
to work on for tomorrow.
Probably going fishing.

A little piece on
Forecasting Labor and Skill Demand

What does all this mean? It’s hard to say with certainty, but it appears we’re entering a period where familiar indicators are shifting, suggesting deeper changes beneath the surface. Economies are always in flux, which is why continuously learning new skills is essential. Sometimes that’s as simple as getting a library card or watching instructional videos; other times it may require returning to school for formal education or training. The last few years have been something a little new and explanations have been all over the map. It follows normal patterns but not exactely so hold onto your hat.

Jobs change because markets change. Employment rises and falls as old roles become outdated and new ones emerge. People working within a field often adapt naturally as it evolves. Those who struggle usually face either rapid change that outpaces their ability to adjust or a failure to update their skills. Organizational trends toward “doing more with less” can also leave some workers behind. In other words, stay competitive—and seek out employers who value people beyond basic input-output metrics.

(btw,there are methods by which companies can prepare the workforce for tomorrow by understanding trends and their ability to meet those future needs. Understand the market, the resources, the plan, and the people.)

Now, let’s look into the crystal ball and see what we can discover…

"We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good." - Warren Buffett

I like this piece, 

119K Jobs Added CNBC Analysis