The recent economic data is mixed but contains elements that could lean toward a rate cut. What we may be seeing is a more structured approach to managing the economy, with the data reflecting the impact of various policy changes. Every time a policy shifts, it influences the market—sometimes subtly, sometimes significantly—by altering behavioral patterns. In that sense, some of the mixed data may simply be signs of transition and adjustment. This is one possible explanation worth exploring, though economists will inevitably interpret the same data differently. Those who wait for a fuller picture often find that additional data points bring greater clarity. Time is also a factor in understanding
Key Points: August 12th, 2025 CPI Release
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Overall prices increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July.
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Food prices were unchanged.
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The home index rose 0.3% (trend shows shelter costs are rising more slowly than in the past).
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The food-at-home index fell 0.1%.
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Energy prices fell 1.1% (could improve transactional speed).
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Gasoline prices fell 2.2% (could improve transactional speed).
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