Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey – September 2026-Expanding, Labor Constraint, Rising Inputs, Expect Growth

September 17th 2026

ESCANABA-The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia recently released its September 2026 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, which examines manufacturing activity and economic conditions in the region.

The Philadelphia Fed reports that manufacturing activity expanded overall in September, with employment remaining positive, higher input costs, labor constraints and businesses continuing to expect growth.

(Just as a side note we are talking about human capital and labor a lot on this blog because skill sets are shifting and human capital will be needed.)

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey – September 2026

• Manufacturing activity expanded in September, with the general activity index declining from 47.4 in August to 37.8. New orders remained positive at 29.2, while the shipments index held steady at 27.7.

• Employment continued to increase overall, although the employment index declined 16 points to 11.8. Most firms (77%) reported no change in employment, suggesting relatively limited hiring activity among respondents.

• Price pressures increased, with the prices paid index rising to 48.6 and the prices received index reaching 31.3. This indicates that manufacturers continued to experience increases in input costs and the prices of their products.

• Production growth was reported by 68% of firms during the third quarter, compared with 16% reporting a decline. Labor supply was a constraint on capacity utilization for 72% of firms, highlighting workforce-related challenges.

• Businesses continued to anticipate growth over the next six months, although the future general activity index fell to 52.9. Future prices paid and received remained elevated, suggesting that manufacturers expect ongoing price pressures alongside continued expansion.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. (2026, September 17). Manufacturing business outlook survey: September 2026 report. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2026-09 

Unemployment Claims Decline, Pointing to Steady Labor Market For Week Ending Sept. 12th, 2026: California and Michigan

September 17, 2026

ESCANABA, MI.-New unemployment insurance claims fell by 10,000 for the week ending September 12, offering a modest sign that the U.S. labor market remains relatively stable and may be showing some improvement.

The decline in claims suggests that fewer workers filed for unemployment benefits during the week. However, the figures provide only a partial view of employment conditions because they cover people participating in the unemployment insurance system and do not include those who have stopped searching for work or are otherwise not counted in these measures.

State-level results were mixed. California reported an increase in unemployment claims, pointing to a rise in layoffs, while Michigan recorded a decline in claims.

Overall, the latest figures provide a somewhat positive indication of labor market conditions. Still, economists and policymakers must look beyond weekly unemployment claims to understand the broader employment picture, including workers who remain outside the unemployment insurance system.

Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline in September 2026

• Initial unemployment claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000 for the week ending September 12, 2026. The four-week moving average declined to 203,250.

• Insured unemployment decreased by 39,000 to 1.73 million, while the insured unemployment rate fell to 1.1%.

• Total continued claims declined to 1.69 million for the week ending August 29, below the 1.83 million recorded during the same period in 2025.

• Michigan reported 5,802 initial claims for the week ending September 5, down 2,075 from the previous week, while California reported 37,388 claims, an increase of 1,967.

• The decline in claims indicates reduced unemployment insurance activity, although weekly data can fluctuate and should be considered alongside other labor market indicators.

U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. (2026, September 17). Unemployment insurance weekly claims: Seasonally adjusted data (Release No. USDL 26-1529-NAT). https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf 

Delta County Board of Commissioners Meeting 9/15/2026-Spooktacular Halloween Event and other stuff!

The county recently held a meeting that included several interesting discussions and updates. One county member is leaving after making valuable contributions to the community. The meeting also covered the upcoming Spooktacular Halloween event, along with other local activities that residents should be aware of and support.

(Illustratyive Only)

Additional topics included purchasing and bill payments, a firewood processor, an investor RFP award, budgetary matters, and other county business. Residents are encouraged to stay informed about county meetings and local events to better understand ongoing developments in the community. A discussion on exit from MERS and financial investment advising.

Opening & Administrative Approvals

• Roll Call: Commissioners Milner, Johnson, Williams, VandeVusse, and Jensen were present.

• Meeting Minutes: Minutes from the September 1, 2026 meeting were approved as amended to correct a typo ("Human Services").

• Agenda Additions: The agenda was approved with four added new business items concerning airport RFPs, LEO reimbursement, the ACIP project list, and dynamic aircraft display repainting.

County Clerk Retirement & Farewells

• County Clerk & Register of Deeds Nancy Prusi gave her final report, marking her upcoming retirement after nearly 26 years in office.

• Career Highlights & Stats:

  • Elected in 2000 as Delta County’s first female County Clerk.

  • Longest-serving clerk in county history (25 years, 9 months; 7 four-year terms).

  • Attended 784 county board meetings (missed only 42).

  • Officiated over 600 weddings, handled 50+ elections, and saved local jurisdictions ~$100,000 by programming elections in-house from 2005–2022.

  • Acquired high-capacity rolling filing cabinets at no cost, adding 25+ years of filing space.

• Departmental Request: Expressed an urgent plea for the board to add a third staff member to the understaffed clerk's office, noting the office generates an extra $120,000/year.

Departmental Updates (Parks & Maintenance)

• Upcoming Projects: Preparation for the Spooktacular event, gravel hauling for county forest roads, park bathroom renovations, campsite graveling, and MSU extension building remodels.

• Staffing: Publicly noted a need to hire a building trades worker.

Financial & New Business Approvals

• Payment of Bills: Approved total claims/bills of $1,231,500.96 and commissioner expenses of $1,621.40.

• Emergency Management: Approved the Chair to sign the FY 2027 M-EMPG Local Emergency Management Work Agreement.

• Firewood Processor Purchase: Approved purchasing a skid-steer-mounted firewood processor (via a budget amendment from maintenance to parks) to automate campsite firewood processing and save money.

• Legal Engagement: Approved a letter of engagement with Foster Swift Legal Counsel to assist with evaluating an exit from the MERS defined benefit plan.

• Policy Adoptions: Approved County Policies 1.7, 3.4, 5.6, and 6.2 as presented.

  • Policy 2.1 Amendment: Approved policy updates to clarify board oversight over both the County Administrator and the County Controller per state statute (MCL 46.13b).

• Brownfield Authority: Appointed Wendy Holesenamp and Steve (last name unstated) to open seats.

Tabled / Deferred Items

• October Meeting Schedule: Tabled a proposal to cancel the October 20th meeting until the first meeting in October.

• Investor RFP Award: Tabled awarding the financial investor contract to allow the County Controller time to review and provide input on the two proposals received (Delta Financial Inc. and Manor Wealth).

Budget & Fiscal Year Motions

• Approved routine year-end housekeeping motions, including line-item budget transfers, chart of accounts updates, remonumentation per diem/mileage settings, and recording residual equity interest earnings in the general fund.

• Approved adopting the amended FY 2026 budget and general budget resolution with corrections to millage tax rates.

• Personnel Posting Discussion: Debated a clause regarding required board approval for replacing vacant staff positions; discussed balancing administrative efficiency with board financial oversight.

Federal Reserve Economic Projections Setember 2026 (The Crystal Ball)

The Federal Reserve recently released its September 2026 economic projections. GDP growth is expected to be approximately 2.3% in 2026, followed by moderate growth through 2029. Unemployment is projected to remain relatively stable, while inflation is expected to gradually decline toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

(Illustrative Only)

Looking into the crystal
ball of forecasting. 
Part data and
part art.

However, these are projections, not guarantees. Unexpected economic developments could change the outlook. Overall, the projections suggest an economy that is relatively stable, with moderate growth rather than particularly strong expansion.

Federal Reserve Economic Projections: September 2026

• Economic growth: GDP growth is projected at 2.3% in 2026, with moderate growth through 2029.

• Unemployment: The unemployment rate is projected at 4.1% from 2026 through 2029.

• Inflation: PCE inflation is expected to decline from 3.7% in 2026 to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by 2029.

• Interest rates: The federal funds rate is projected to gradually decline from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2029.

• Economic outlook: Projections reflect policymakers' expectations and remain subject to economic uncertainty.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, September 16). FOMC projections materials. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm 

The Allegory of the Clan: Justice, Corruption, and the Social Contract (The Good and the Bad of Choices)

The hypothetical Allegory of the Clan is a philosophical thought experiment designed to explore how hatred, corruption, institutional power, and personal incentives influence society. Its purpose is not to establish who is right or wrong, but to examine how institutions can either support or undermine justice, public trust, and human development.

When Justice Becomes a Tool of Targeting

(Illustrative Only)
One asks you only to 
kiss the ring for riches, 
a fast career, and 
self-enrichment. The
other offers nothing 
but your soul and upholding
human freedom for everyone else.
A man who embraces
the animal nature or
a man that embraces
a higher moral conscious.
We each must
decide what we believe
is the best for everyone
else. 
Englightenment

Imagine a society in which a minority group is targeted by institutional leaders and denied equal protection under the law. Constitutional rights are selectively applied, misconduct is ignored, and individuals who benefit from corruption face little accountability.

From the victims' perspective, this represents a betrayal of justice and the social contract. From the perpetrators' perspective, such actions may be rationalized through beliefs about superiority, loyalty, religious rightness or who deserves to belong.

The thought experiment highlights how individuals can construct moral justifications for harmful behavior. When personal gain, social status, and institutional influence outweigh shared principles, corruption can become embedded in systems that are supposed to protect the public.

Intimidation and the Normalization of Hatred

The hypothetical misconduct extends beyond the courtroom through intimidation, surveillance, harassment, and retaliation against whistleblowers. When institutions fail to respond, fear and distrust can spread (....if it is supported by stats it could be a bigger problem).

Repeated dehumanization and negative narratives may normalize discrimination and create conditions in which more serious harm becomes possible. History demonstrates the dangers of allowing these patterns to continue without meaningful reflection. In some places in the world the normalization of hate and misuse of narratives leads to genocide.

Checks and balances, ethical leadership, and the protection of those who report misconduct are essential to maintaining institutional integrity. Dissent against corruption can serve a constructive purpose when it seeks to uphold equal rights and strengthen public institutions.

The Social Contract and Leadership

Many people within institutions may perform their duties faithfully, yet leadership, incentives, and institutional culture can influence their decisions. When money, political influence, fear, and loyalty reinforce one another, doing the right thing may become more difficult.

Silence can contribute to institutional failure when it allows misconduct to continue without accountability.

A Positive Moral Outcome

The Allegory of the Clan is ultimately about the possibility of learning and change. Societies can strengthen public trust by confronting wrongdoing, protecting individual rights, and encouraging leaders to demonstrate integrity through their actions.

The central question is not whether every person is good or bad. It is whether institutions can be designed to encourage ethical behavior, discourage corruption, protect dissent, and preserve human dignity.

When societies learn from their mistakes and uphold shared values, they create stronger conditions for human capital, participation, and economic development. The torch of liberty is sustained not only by laws, but by the moral commitment to apply those laws fairly.

*The Allegory of the Clan is a philsophical, theoretical, thought experiment designed around Plato's Allegory of the Cave that tried to bring people to enlightenment of self and society. Take with a grain of salt and fee free to discard. There is no right or wrong answer. 

Asch Experiment: Group Pressure and Conformity

• Solomon Asch conducted a series of experiments in the 1950s to examine how peer pressure and group opinion could influence individual judgment.
• Participants were asked to compare the lengths of lines, a task with an obvious correct answer, while other people in the group deliberately gave incorrect answers.
• More than one-third of participants sometimes agreed with the incorrect majority, and at least 75% gave an incorrect response at least once.
• The research showed that conformity increased when individuals faced a unanimous majority, while having even one person disagree with the group made it easier for participants to resist social pressure.
• The experiment demonstrates the power of social influence and raises an important question about whether people change their beliefs or simply comply publicly to avoid standing apart from the group.

Shuttleworth, M. (2008, February 23). Asch experiment. Explorable. https://explorable.com/asch-experiment

Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates to 3.75% to 4% (Squirrels and Chipmonks Set Nut Rates)

 Steady growth and geopolitical risks shape the Federal Reserve's latest decision.

HIAWATHA NATIONAL FOREST, UP🙃-The Federal Reserve has decided to raise interest rates after reviewing the overall economy. Reviewing reports, like many presented in this blog, offer a broad overview of the economic landscape. The Federal Open Market Committee looks at many reports and metrics and come to a conclusion to make a decision. In this case they believe the economy is strong.

(One might wonder whether following the economic disruptions of COVID-19, technological advancements and the expansion of remote work contributed to significant changes in business and employment. Over time, these fluctuations have gradually settled into a more normalized pattern of economic growth. Theorizing🤔)

(Illustrative Only)
Squirrels and Chipmonks
set the forest interest nut
rate during their FOMC 
meeting. It impacts
the costs throughout 
the forest.
The nutty lenders are
all watching. 
Hiawatha Map
where the squirrels live.🙃🌲

The Federal Reserve's rate increase is intended to help manage inflation and prevent excessive economic pressure. While the economy appears to be functioning relatively well, the data continue to reveal challenges that could become more significant in the future.

Geopolitical developments remain a major risk for businesses and the broader economy. Continued monitoring of economic reports, inflation, employment, and global developments will be important for understanding the direction of future growth.

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Decision – September 16, 2026

• Interest rates: The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4.00%.

• Economic growth: Economic activity continues to expand, supported by domestic spending, productivity, and capital investment.

• Employment: Job gains have kept pace with workforce growth, while unemployment has changed little.

• Inflation: Inflation remains elevated, with the Federal Reserve maintaining focus on returning inflation to its 2% target.

• Economic uncertainty: Geopolitical developments continue to create uncertainty, despite resilient domestic spending and investment.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, September 16). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm 

US Import and Export Prices Rise in August 2026: Possible Inflationary Breeze

(Illustrative Only)
Let us think
through this....
Let us say these two
grow produce from their
 local farm
and are exporting
it regionally.
They need
access to different
transportation
infrastructure to
move their
products as cheap 
as possible. Delta County
has connecting highways
to different areas of the 
UP, is near WI,
rail lines, airport,
deep sea port,
data infrastructure,
etc. 

How might a 
small city that
has these things 
also some opportunities?
Could that
attract export
oriented start-ups,
tourism ships, 
resource processeing,
manufacturing, etc
 

Import and export prices moved higher in August 2026, suggesting that price pressures remain present across international trade.

Import prices increased 0.7% in August after declining slightly in July. Export prices also increased, rising 0.6% after falling the previous month.

The increases are notable because they are not being driven solely by fuel prices. Broader price increases across imported and exported goods could indicate that inflationary pressures are coming from a wider range of products and inputs (or even a different source that has wide impact like fuel.).

For consumers and businesses, the takeaway is fairly simple: if these trends continue, some products could become more expensive in the months ahead. However, one month of increases does not establish a long-term trend, so the next several months will provide a better indication of where prices are headed.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Rise in August 2026

• U.S. import prices increased 0.7% in August 2026 after declining 0.3% in July. Over the past year, import prices rose 7.0%, the largest 12-month increase since August 2022. 
• Nonfuel import prices increased 0.8% in August and were up 5.5% from August 2025, reflecting higher prices for industrial materials, capital goods, and consumer goods. 
• Fuel import prices edged down 0.1% in August, although fuel prices remained 26.8% higher than a year earlier. Import natural gas prices increased 102.6% over the same period. 
• U.S. export prices increased 0.6% in August following a 1.4% decline in July. Export prices were 8.6% higher than a year earlier, with both agricultural and nonagricultural exports recording annual increases. 
• The data indicate continued price pressure in international trade, with higher import costs potentially affecting businesses that rely on foreign inputs while higher export prices can influence the revenues and competitiveness of U.S. exporters. 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, September 16). U.S. import and export price indexes—August 2026. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm