Riding the Wave of Technological Change: AI and National Productivity (Creative Destruction)

Technology has been advancing at a rapid pace for decades, especially since the internet came online. Some of us were early adopters and grew alongside the digital era as it evolved. The next generation will need to become equally comfortable with AI, which is built on the technological progress of previous decades. As technology continues to accelerate, its impact on the workforce will grow as well.

Let’s look at some of that impact.

First, the article below suggests that increases in labor productivity may double. This is good news for advanced economies, but it also means that these countries will continue to adapt and innovate, pushing technology even faster through competition among major manufacturing and intellectual industries. Many tasks will become simpler and more automated, saving people significant time.

Riding the wave of technology
change.
Kawabonga!

Second, we must continue to develop human capital to keep pace with advanced technology. This means workers will need ongoing training and education—often while maintaining full-time jobs. Few people can afford to take years off mid-career to return to school, so they will need flexible solutions that support continuous learning. This is where professional training programs and online education become essential.

From an economic perspective, both markets and technology are constantly evolving, and we must adapt to keep up. Jobs will change as older products and services are replaced by newer, more efficient ones—an example of creative destruction (Very good economic article so you might want to read it.). The pressure to adjust will be felt not only by individuals but by companies, institutions (fast change) and leaders as well.

The key takeaway is that a willingness to update one’s knowledge and take ownership of one’s future will determine who adapts and who falls behind. We will also need future leaders that are increasingly comfortable with technology and change. Very little will remain the same, and even that will change more quickly than before. Consider creating your own roadmap for understanding emerging technologies and applying them in ways that advance your goals, as well as those of organizations and society.

Updated technology requires updated human capital and modern infrastructure. We are likely to experience significant changes in the near future, and each of us must decide whether to ride the wave like a surfer—or be swept away by it.

Estimating AI productivity gains from Claude conversations

The $500 Lesson: Chasing Down an Old Car’s Electrical Gremlin (Hunker Junker Restoration)

The $250 bandit!

Working on a car can be a lot of fun—as long as you don’t let the frustration get to you. Not even a week ago, the blower stopped working because the module burned out. Unfortunately, this was the second time that module failed, and each one costs about $250. The first failure wasn’t my fault; it simply burned out on its own.

Since the car is old, I assumed the component had just aged out. Old cars are notorious for electrical issues—rust, brittle wires, and parts that were never meant to last 40 years. I searched all over the country and finally found what’s called a blower module. They don’t make them anymore for this model, so I had to rely on an aftermarket company—apparently the only one still producing them.

Fixing cars is part fun
and part practical

I bought the part, installed it, and everything worked fine for a few months…until the weather turned cold. One day it failed again. That’s when I realized the component itself might not be the problem. Maybe there was a short, or a bad relay. Most sources said the relay was in the engine bay near the blower, but one mentioned it could be behind the glove box.

I took apart the glove box, and sure enough—there was a relay. I ordered a new one, hoping to save myself from buying another $250 module, since the relay itself was only $27. But when it arrived, it didn’t fit. I returned it, asked around, and everyone swore the car should have that relay.

What made it even stranger was that the second relay I tried almost fit—but not quite—so back it went. Meanwhile, the cold weather was settling in, and without a blower, the heat barely moved into the cabin. The blower was stuck on high, but only because something had burned out.

I checked with a good buddy of mine who’s been fixing up cars for years and does fantastic work. Compared to him, I’m an amateur. He looked it up and confirmed that the car should indeed have a relay. So I went back to the parts store to return the second relay. The guy behind the counter said the same thing—the car takes a relay.

But then we started talking about the strange chipboard module from 1985, and something I’d read online about the relay and blower resistor possibly being on the same board (not mentioned for this car or year.). He asked whether the car had climate control. And that was the key: this particular car came with optional climate control that didn't normally come with this car—advanced technology for its time—and the system combined components in a way modern parts don’t replace. They don’t make anything identical anymore. So after a wasted week and a half, I ordered my second $250 blower motor resistor/relay module.

Worried I’d just burn out another one, I checked the car thoroughly for shorts or loose wires. Finally, I looked at the fuse box and realized the prior owner had stuck a 25-amp fuse in there. The box isn’t labeled, so I wasn’t sure what size was supposed to be used. According to the manual, it should be a 20-amp fuse. Using a larger fuse would let the blower run too hot for too long, eventually frying the module.

The last thing I wanted was to spend a third $250, so I put a 15-amp fuse in instead. Some might disagree, since a lower fuse can limit max output, but this car already had a strong heater. Dropping to 15 amps made sense to me—it ensures the cheap fuse blows before the expensive module does.

So far, so good. The new blower module works, and that’s important in the Upper Peninsula, where winters are brutally cold. Yes, I lost about $500 and a week and a half of time, but if I had taken it to a mechanic—paying for diagnostics and repairs—I suspect the bill would have been $800 or $900. Mechanics have overhead to pay. Fixing it at home doesn’t cost me anything but time and a bit of frustration.

I put the old module on the shelf. Maybe one day I’ll find the little burnt-out component, solder in a new one, and have a backup. You’re either a car person or you’re not, and I genuinely enjoy tinkering with old cars when I get the time. This one should be finished in a few months, and I’m already looking around for either a 1950s Santa-style truck or a cool old Land Rover to fix up—something I can put a winch on and take hunting, fishing, and winter driving. Meanwhile, I’ll keep enjoying the luxury of this Riviera for nights out in downtown Escanaba.

It's a Wonderful Life Radio Show-Players de Noc-December 19th (Better than Broadway and Free!)

 It’s a Wonderful Life is a Christmas favorite and a long-standing tradition. This live radio-style show draws a large crowd each year, and admission is free. It’s one of the ways this theater gives back to the community during the holidays. Considering how many productions they stage throughout the year—often selling out—this feels like the cherry on top of their seasonal activities.

What are the holidays if you’re not going to enjoy them fully? I know plenty of people who stay home and end up missing the many festive events happening not only in this community but in neighboring ones as well. You don’t want to be too busy, of course, but catching a few highlights—like the Christmas lighting in Gladstone, the parade in Escanaba (which I can’t attend this year), and this show—adds so much magic to the season.

Picture this holiday scenario: You have visitors in town, and you decide to head to a local restaurant for dinner and cocktails. You’re dressed well and in good spirits, so you decide to top off the night with a beautiful Christmas show. After your last hot cocoa—whether that’s plain, crème de cacao, crème de menthe, or something in between—you head over to the theater.

Tune into the holidays!
We didn't have VR immersion. 
We had to show up
but it was a rich experience!

When the show ends, you step outside to find a light dusting of snow. Everything looks bright and peaceful. The downtown lights look like a tunnel You’ve had a wonderful evening: enjoying the town, taking in free entertainment, and spending time with family and friends. That, after all, is what the holidays are about. So pull on your Christmas sweaters, scarves, hats, and mittens, and enjoy the true spirit of the season. 

As a final note, if you’re interested in being part of this production, auditions are coming up—check the theater’s webpage for details. Bonifas is better than Broadway because here you can experience the joy in and outside the theater-the immersive experience.

It is a Wonderful Life-Players December 19th

Normalizing the Unacceptable: How Hate Thrives Through Corruption

 Acts of hate have been with us for a very long time may reach back to the beginning. For one reason or another, people divide themselves based on race, religion, politics, or even sports teams. Rarely, however, does hate become so normalized that the lines between hateful behavior and social acceptance of that behavior blur (Generally people know it is wrong no matter how laws are applied.). At that point, one might wonder which is the greater crime—the hateful act itself, or the willingness to accept and normalize it. Let us move into a philosophical discussion just for exploratory purposes only.

This is where corruption often enters the picture. Hate is an emotional response that can arise for many reasons, but it is frequently a deep psychological projection of a person’s inner turmoil. When such narratives offer others a convenient outlet or justification, the spread of hate increases. It doesn’t matter the religion, race, politics, country, or era—this is a universal human phenomenon (This is why we also create laws against it. While laws are imperfect they should not be seen as a game.).

Developed societies strive to move beyond rudimentary, heuristic thinking and toward higher values that elevate us above our simple beginnings (Laws can be used to create higher or lower expectations to raise or smash each other). One mindset clings to superficial differences; the other aspires to noble principles. Ideally, people would be judged by merit rather than by underdeveloped perceptions of difference. However, history is full of less than ideal based the the decision making of imperfect people (We are all imperfect in some ways but it takes special type of person/group to willingly dump their imperfects on others in an intentionally harmful way.).

But because not everyone seeks to improve themselves or elevate others, societies need checks and balances. Where these are absent, corruption thrives and undermines foundational anchors. We guard against corruption and hate not only because they are destructive, but because they are fundamentally dishonest forces that distort a society’s sense of fairness. There are often many more swept under the carpet victims as hate is only a tool for something much more dark that can be applied against others using various tools (i.e. why corruption is often associated where hate has been normalized. It has to do with social structures and which voices they are listening to within certain circles of influence.Those voices create social expectations that manifest into the unwritten rules. The people within those groups know the behaviors is wrong but have justified it in some way.)

We all have a vested interest in reducing division and fostering cooperation. Societies function through shared cultural principles and collective engagement. Those who harbor hate often care little for cohesion; they tend to be motivated instead by power and domination. Societies often slow down as divisions are created because the microtransations decouple with the division (There is some support in literature that societies that experience the most corruption and hate often decline in most instances. You can look at a corruption index and see how GDP and corruption can be associated. The same concept could be applied to individual places that shrink due to the presence of corruption and the display of emotions related to hate.) When such dynamics are tolerated or normalized, more victims inevitably emerge—these patterns do not appear overnight.

It would be deeply troubling to witness decline of justice—filled with winks, nods, and quiet compromises. Under the influence of hate, and enabled by corruption, people can say and do things that move beyond the grotesque into the morally culpable. With no internal checks or ethical backstop, they rely solely on institutional checks and balances that are themselves imperfect, shaped by both accurate and inaccurate worldviews. In cases where people are quick to harm and slow to correct reveal the presence of troubling unwritten values that have made their way into outcomes. This is why we should always be serious about who we place in what positions (i.e. best and brightest versus most connected" because they have societal obligations toward a wide group of stakeholders. The most connected must reward those who put them in that position. They are inherently different loyalties. A person who is very good at their job, and people know it, owes no loyalty to anything but the principles and their performance. Do you start seeing my argument here?)

The study below is interesting in this context as it discusses thrill, defensive, retaliation, and mission ideology as catalysts (In our hypothethetical philosopical example of 'The Clan' we see all of them at play at one point or another by different members.). It explores the motivations behind hate and its broader impact. Good people know the difference between right and wrong, and research like this helps us reflect on the long-term consequences of hate—especially when corruption rewards it, allowing the entitled few to benefit while society loses some of its best. However, we don't need this research to tell us what values we should have as we can learn from history and experience. Look inward.

Psychological causes and effects of hate crimes

Gladstone's Christmas Tree Shines Bright: A Boutique Town’s Holiday Event (Warning: Reindeer Kibble Delious!)

 

Gladstone puts together one of the nicest Christmas tree events in the area. It’s a small downtown, but it’s incredibly well cared for and beautifully manicured. If Escanaba is the “big city,” Gladstone is the boutique town. Any tourist would have enjoyed it today on Main Street—Delta Avenue looked charming, even in the frigid weather. Despite the cold, the turnout was impressive, and the whole event was a lot of fun.

There were Christmas trees, crafts, a bonfire, horse rides, trailer rides, and plenty of free trinkets and snacks. I even picked up some “reindeer food,” which didn’t make it back to my car because I wanted to know what reindeer kibble tastes like. Turns out, it tastes a lot like cereal mixed with candy. Who knew reindeer lived so well?

Warning: If you eat all the 
reindeer's kibble and don't 
give them any you may have
to run for it!
Delicious!

Events like this bring out community pride and give people a chance to meet, reconnect, and enjoy each other’s company. The best places to live often have downtowns with a strong sense of identity and active community life. Gladstone’s downtown may be small, but it’s packed with shops and several places to eat. It really seems like a great town to raise a family.

Gladstone Christmas Tree Lighting Info

US Consumer Confidence Declines in November 6.8% to 88.7% (The Penny-Wise Alternatives)

How confident are you feeling these days? According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence has been declining. That naturally raises some concerns heading into the holidays, since lower confidence can translate into lower spending. Of course, we never really know the impact until the sales numbers come in, but the possibility is there. Consumer confidence is often described as a mid-term economic indicator—at least from what I’ve read.

Jared saved up $4
in pennies that he has been
stuffing into a pine tree. He decided
to spend $2 on wood, propane and food,
$1 on fishing and hunting supplies for
his guide business and $1 on
eating out (Try dowtown
Escanaba or Gladstone)
and high end flannel fashion
 (Today is Black Friday Sales! )
Jared is going to see what happens
during Black Friday as
an economic indicator
just to see if his guide business
will pick up this year.
He eans a living from consumers
and their sentiment.

A mid-term influence might occur because it takes time for confidence to erode or recover, and only then does it begin to affect people’s choices, which eventually influences broader economic growth. If my understanding is correct, roughly 70% to 75% of the U.S. economy is tied to consumer spending (You can look up the exact number). In many ways, we’re a society built on consumption.

Naturally, many other factors affect whether consumer confidence rises or falls, but the index is essentially a measure of sentiment. Most of us feel the pressure of tight budgets and limited financial flexibility, so it makes sense that confidence is tied to a person’s ability to maintain their lifestyle.

These are just some simple thoughts—people’s financial lives are always more complex in practice. Still, here are a few ideas that may help during times of uncertainty:

1. Create a budget: It’s difficult to understand your spending and income without tracking them. You don’t have to record every detail, but I personally find it helpful, especially for hobbies or business-related expenses.

2. Find alternatives and streamline: The holidays can be a good time to reflect on what truly matters. Previous generations lived full lives without many of the things we now consider essential. Focusing on what brings genuine joy—and cutting what doesn’t—can reveal meaningful savings.

3. Start a small business: You might consider starting a home-based side business. Many people turn their hobbies into profitable ventures. Think about what you’re good at, what interests you, what it will cost to start, and whether people will want to buy it (Don't expect to be rich as a writer or artist unless your the rare exception!).

4. Invest: Building financial stability often involves learning to invest. Some people inherit wealth, but most financially strong individuals develop investment knowledge over time. Online platforms now make it easy to start with small amounts, even $100 at a time. I’d like to continue doing that myself, and I’m also thinking about purchasing land in the future.

Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Declines in November

Consider a study on the relationship between confidence and the economy.

Confidence and the Impact on Economy

My Gallery: Now With More Paint and Fewer Expectations (Art History)

I wonder if I could
carve and paint a
wood decoy? They
want 100's for them.
Might try it sometime.

Art is a hobby people get into for all kinds of reasons. Some folks do it for deep, historical meaning; others just want to paint a bowl of fruit and call it a day. Art captures ideas and emotions in ways books and YouTube tutorials simply cannot—unless the YouTube video involves someone accidentally spilling paint everywhere, in which case it might come close.

Most of us don’t create art for fame or fortune. We do it because work, life, and responsibility are always lurking in the background like unpaid rent, and art gives us an escape hatch. My own art isn’t exactly museum-worthy—at least not yet—but maybe one day it’ll develop its own weird little style. For now, I’m mostly creating just for the joy of it. If something sells, great. If not, well, I have a growing collection I can someday donate to confuse future archaeologists.

My Gallery

If you scroll through my gallery and see something you like, feel free to buy it or send me a message. Around $35 usually does the trick, and I’ll even ship it to you. That covers my lunch and makes me feel like a real artist for about 12 minutes. Some pieces might even have a tiny hidden story—though good luck finding it.

Why do I do art? Glad you asked:

1. It clears my mind, like a mental car wash.

2. It helps me connect random ideas—sometimes even on purpose.

3. It gets me out of the chair before I merge with it permanently.

4. Artsy people are great. They think differently, dress creatively, and rarely judge my paint-splattered sweatpants.

   

5. It feels historically important… possibly.

6. It’s gloriously non-digital. My paintbrush doesn’t need charging.

7. It lets me express myself without having to give a speech.

8. Wildlife art rarely sells, but occasionally someone with excellent taste (or blurry vision) buys one. 😉

9. And honestly? I do it because I can. No permission slip required.

A pretty interesting article on Art History Art History