US Manufacturing Continues to Expand September 2026

October 1st, 2026

ESCANABA, MI. -Manufacturing appears to be holding up fairly well, with the sector recording nine consecutive months of expansion. We do not need to get buried in all the details, but it is worth keeping an eye on manufacturing as part of the broader economy. For now, this is one sector that appears to be doing okay.

The other item worth watching is rising costs. Geopolitical issues, tariffs, interest rates, and changes in global supply chains can all influence what manufacturers pay for materials and other inputs. The increase in the Prices Index may be one indication that some of those pressures are showing up in the manufacturing sector.

For those of us simply trying to understand where the economy is headed, the lesson is fairly simple: manufacturing looks reasonably strong, but costs deserve a little attention. As always, keep watching the numbers—because the economy rarely sits still long enough for us to catch our breath.

U.S. Manufacturing Expands for Ninth Consecutive Month in September 2026

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5% in September, slightly below August’s 54.6%, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.
• New orders increased to 55.3%, up from 53.7% in August, marking the ninth consecutive month of expansion in new orders.
• Production remained strong at 56.7%, although it declined from 58.3% in August. Backlog orders increased significantly to 56.4%, suggesting continued demand for manufactured goods.
• Employment improved, with the Manufacturing Employment Index rising to 52.7% from 51.2%, indicating manufacturing employment was expanding during September.
• A concern is rising input costs. The Prices Index jumped to 77.9% from 71.1%, indicating substantially stronger price pressures for manufacturers and potentially higher costs moving through supply chains.

Institute for Supply Management. (2026, October 1). Manufacturing PMI® at 54.5%; September 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® report. PR Newswire. PR Newswire article 

Good-for-You Muffins-Super Easy and Moist

 For those of us who like to cook, I recently tried a recipe a friend sent me. She is a really good cook—and, unlike some of us, she actually cooks all the time. It is something she enjoys, so she has developed what I would describe as an exceptional cooking capacity.

(Illustrative Only)

The recipe was called “Good-for-You Muffins,” and they were surprisingly simple. There was little to no flour involved—mostly milk, oats, applesauce, banana, stevia or honey, a little baking powder, and then whatever extras you want to throw in. Flaxseed, raisins, walnuts and other ingredients can easily be added. I used protein-rich rolled oats, which seemed like a good way to add a little more nutritional value.

The muffins turned out really well. They had a noticeable banana flavor and were a little more moist than your typical muffin, which I considered a feature rather than a flaw. They were also extremely easy to make, which is important because I enjoy cooking a lot more when the recipe doesn't require a small engineering degree.

For the most part, the ingredients make this a pretty good snack. I ended up bringing some along while lifeguarding to share with the crew. I like doing that from time to time, and I also gave a few to some neighbors. Apparently, muffins are a fairly effective way to make friends.

Cooking doesn't have to stop when you're camping or even when you're on a boat. With a little creativity, you can cook just about anything. I'm also trying something new on the equipment side. I recently bought a new ceramic cookware set, so I'll be giving that a test run. I've never actually owned a new ceramic set before. I've always had the traditional collection of mismatched pots and pans—the kind where every piece appears to have arrived from a completely different kitchen.

So we'll see how the new cookware performs. Maybe this is the beginning of my professional cooking era. Or at least the era where all the pans match.

Unemployment Claims Low for Week Ending September 26th, 2026-Jobs Will Continue to Change

October 1, 2026

ESCANABA-MI. The labor market continues to show signs of stability, with unemployment remaining relatively low. Michigan, California, and Kentucky appear to be holding relatively steady, providing another reason to keep an eye on employment trends rather than panic over every weekly change.

The bigger story may be in the types of jobs being created and lost. As businesses adjust and seek greater efficiency, demand for certain skills can decline while demand for others increases. The labor market is constantly shifting.

For workers, that makes education, training, and skill development increasingly important. The jobs may change, but opportunities can emerge as the economy adapts.

Unemployment Claims Remain Low, but States Vary

• U.S. initial claims fell to 197,000, with the four-week average at 200,000.
• Michigan: 4,558 new claims, up 734; insured unemployment fell to 37,327.
• California: 34,642 new claims, down 289; insured unemployment was 307,610, with a 1.7% rate.
• Kentucky: 1,261 new claims, down 50; insured unemployment rose to 9,241, with a 0.4% rate.
• Continued claims provide additional insight into labor-market conditions beyond new unemployment filings.

U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. (2026, October 1). Unemployment insurance weekly claims [News release]. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Making Time for a Little Art

 I’m continuing along with my fun little art hobby. I haven’t done much painting lately because I’ve been busy with other projects—particularly with my car out of commission, a few other things needing attention, and the general business of life. But I’m planning to get back into painting next week.

Sometimes you have to be a little selfish with your time. Not “buy a yacht and disappear to an island” selfish—just “I’m going to spend a few hours doing something I actually enjoy” selfish.

For me, that means art.

Art is more than just putting paint on a canvas and hoping it looks like something. It can improve creativity and encourage innovation. It gives us an opportunity to see the world from different places and perspectives. At its most basic level, art is a neurological activity: We take things we are thinking, feeling, observing, and understanding and somehow translate them onto a canvas.

And sometimes, in the process, we discover something new.

Of course, there are people who criticize art. I understand that. From a strictly economic perspective, art can seem rather useless. It doesn't necessarily produce something measurable, increase productivity, or fix the transmission bracket on an old Buick—which, currently, would be extremely useful.

But art is also one of the oldest forms of human expression. People have been drawing, painting, carving, decorating, and telling stories visually since the beginning of human history. There is probably a reason our brains keep coming back to it.

Art gives people an enjoyable way to express themselves, but it also allows us to document and interpret the world in ways that science and technology don't always capture. Sometimes a painting, photograph, sculpture, or simple sketch can communicate an idea or feeling that would take several pages of explanation.

So, I’m going to get back to painting.

If you're interested in my artwork, you can check out my gallery and see if anything catches your eye. Some of my paintings are available through eBay. You can also contact me if you'd like to purchase one directly from the info below.. If you want a frame, that's a different conversation because, apparently, frames cost money too.

Anyway, take a look at the gallery. You might find something you like—and if nothing else, you can say you supported an artist who occasionally has to stop painting because his old car needs another custom part fabricated.

Art Gallery (Painting and Photos)

$70 Purchase Painting Pay Pal

$60 for photos (Rights to Use or Printing)

Art Gallery eBay (Paintings)

Core PCE Inflation Shows Moderate Increase in August, 2026-A Little More Inflation Means Making the Paycheck Stretch

Core inflation is up a little, which means consumers should expect everyday prices to continue creeping higher. It may not be dramatic, but over time, those small increases can make the paycheck stretch a little further.

(Illustrative Only)
Bow Hunter's
Cost Saving Strategy.
Bow season just started.
Sorry...big thing
in the UP. Waiting on car.
Grr.....
Michigan Hunting Season
Category

Other economic reports indicate that wages are also rising somewhat, which helps offset some of the additional costs. However, interest rates remain relatively high, making borrowing more expensive. For those who have the ability to do so, putting a little money away can provide some breathing room when prices or unexpected expenses come along.

Core PCE Inflation Shows Moderate Increase in August

The latest Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index provides a relatively moderate inflation reading for August, with underlying consumer prices increasing but coming in below expectations.

• Core PCE increased 0.2% in August, up from 0.1% in July but below the 0.3% market forecast.
• On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 3.0%, unchanged from July and still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation objective.
• The measure excludes food and energy, making it useful for examining underlying inflation trends without some of the volatility associated with those categories.
• The broader PCE index increased 0.3% from July and 3.4% over the previous year, also coming in below expectations.
• The report provides a mixed economic picture: inflation remains elevated, but the slower-than-expected increase may reduce immediate pressure for additional monetary tightening while consumer spending remained strong in August.

Investing.com. (2026, September 30). United States Core PCE Price Index MoM. Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61

Personal Income Rises Modestly: Spending Up and Income Rises More Slowly

October 1st, 2026

 ESCANABA-MI.-Personal income is up, disposable income has increased, and consumer sentiment has improved somewhat. Personal savings have also increased, which is generally positive news for the economy.

However, one important question remains: Who is benefiting from these increases? More detailed information showing changes in disposable income and savings across different income groups would provide a clearer picture of how households are actually doing.

This becomes particularly important when considering concerns about income concentration, consumer confidence, and households that report struggling with everyday living expenses. Aggregate economic numbers can show improvement while masking significant differences among income groups.

Another useful metric, therefore, would be a bracketed measure showing income and savings growth by household or income category. That would help us better understand who is able to save, who is falling behind, and whether economic gains are being broadly distributed. Let’s keep an eye out for that additional data in the market if we see it. 

Income is rising slower than spending. 

Its interesting how this information is calculated. See at the bottom Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly

Personal Income Rises Modestly While Consumer Spending Accelerates in August 2026

• Personal income increased 0.2% in August, or $66.6 billion, while disposable personal income rose 0.3%, or $68.6 billion.

• Consumer spending increased substantially, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rising 0.9%. Spending on goods increased $114.1 billion, while services increased $76.7 billion.

• Real consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, increased 0.6%, suggesting that consumers purchased more goods and services rather than the entire increase being attributable to higher prices.

• Inflation remained elevated: the PCE price index increased 0.3% in August and was up 3.4% from a year earlier. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 3.0% year over year.

• Personal saving totaled $990.2 billion, producing a 4.1% personal saving rate. Overall, the data show continued consumer spending growth, although income growth was considerably slower than the increase in spending.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026, September 30). Personal income and outlays, August 2026. U.S. Department of Commerce. BEA report

Hunker Junker Chronicles: Adding Another Skill to the Repertoire: Fixing an E-Bike

October 1st, 2026

ESCANABA, MI.-For the past week and a half, I’ve been getting around town on an e-bike while I figure out what to do about my car.

My 1985 Buick Riviera—better known as the “Guppy Gangsta Wago”—is in the shop for some custom bracket work. Apparently, the transmission bracket they need isn’t made anymore, because seemingly the world has decided that people no longer need parts for perfectly good eight-cylinder automobiles.

(Illustrative Only)
In Delta County
we have good bike trails,
a new bike lane downtown,
and beautiful landscape. 

Imagine biking to your
new start-up on Ludington
Street?

This is where after talking to other car enthusiasts I was given a name of a guy who could fabricate specific parts. Now we are back in business!

I’m definitely going to fix the Riviera. It’s a great car, has a V8, and has plenty of character. But I’ve also come to the conclusion that having a somewhat more reliable vehicle might be a good idea.

Like many people, however, I’m not particularly excited about taking on a $60,000 or $100,000 vehicle payment, plus insurance, interest and all the other expenses that come with a new vehicle. So the idea of finding a decent used car and paying cash has started to look pretty attractive.

In the meantime, there’s the e-bike.

I bought this particular bike about four years ago for roughly $400. It wasn’t anything fancy, but it has actually held up pretty well. I’ve used it occasionally, but lately I’ve been riding it a lot more—and I’m beginning to understand why people enjoy e-bikes.

You see the community from a different perspective, get some exercise and actually have to interact with the environment instead of simply climbing into a vehicle and disappearing behind the windshield. 

I used to do quite a bit of biking in San Diego, so biking isn’t exactly new to me. Doing it more in the UP and maybe see if I can do some winter e-biking. 

And, of course, there is another benefit: when the car is sitting in the driveway, it’s a little harder to use it as an excuse not to exercise.

Then the e-bike decided to develop a problem.

The pedal assist started cutting in and out. On. Off. On. Off. Eventually, it simply gave up altogether.

I took it to a local bike shop, and they told me they couldn’t repair it because it was an imported bike and getting replacement parts would be difficult.

Apparently, my bike had an immigration problem (It's getting cold out.🧊🏒)

Fine. I brought it home.

I started doing some research online and watching a few YouTube videos. I eventually figured the problem might be the pedal-assist sensor. So I located the sensor, pulled it out, cleaned it, used some electrical connection cleaner and gave it a good brushing.

I put everything back together, turned the bike on—and, lo and behold, it worked perfectly.

No expensive parts. No complicated repair. No new bike.

Sometimes the solution really is just cleaning the thing you already have.

That little repair also gave me another idea.

I have two other bicycles sitting around, including a nice cruiser with only seven gears. It’s a great bike for cruising around, but it isn’t exactly built for attacking hills. Around here, hills have a way of reminding you that seven gears are not necessarily enough.

So I started looking at e-bike conversion kits.

Apparently, you can buy a reasonably inexpensive conversion kit for a few hundred dollars and turn a traditional bicycle into an e-bike.

Now I’m thinking: Why not?

Instead of simply buying another expensive vehicle, I might have stumbled into a new hobby—converting old bicycles into e-bikes. Makes you think. 🤔

The Hunker Junker gets repaired, the e-bike keeps me moving, and the old cruiser may get a new electric life.

Not a bad outcome for a $400 bicycle and a dirty sensor.