Survey of Professonal Forecasters May 2026 Indicate Some Softening of the Economy, Higher Inflation, and Possible Contraction

(Illustrative Only)

Something doesn't 
smell just right 
in the market. 

Forecasting uses past and current data to make informed predictions about future economic conditions. In the case of the U.S. economy, recent indicators suggest a generally stable but unremarkable environment—neither particularly strong nor clearly weak. Growth has been steady, but there are signs that momentum is softening.

According to the Survey of Professional Forecasters May 2026, real GDP is expected to grow around 2.2% in 2026, which reflects modest expansion but not especially strong performance. This aligns with broader signals of slowing economic momentum observed over recent quarters.

The unemployment rate is projected to remain relatively stable, suggesting limited movement in labor market conditions. In practical terms, this points to a “wait and see” job environment where significant changes in hiring or layoffs are not widely expected in the near term.

At the same time, inflation (as measured by CPI) is expected to run somewhat higher than previously forecast. That implies continued upward pressure on prices, which can affect household purchasing power, borrowing costs, and credit card debt burdens.

There are also some downside risks in the outlook, including the possibility of occasional negative GDP quarters later in the forecast horizon. While not the baseline expectation, this signals that short-term contractions cannot be ruled out.

Overall, the picture is mixed: stable employment, moderate growth, and persistent inflation pressures, combined with some uncertainty about downside risks. This environment makes careful monitoring of economic trends especially important when making financial or business decisions.

U.S. Economic Outlook Softens: Key Takeaways from the Q2 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters

• The Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters shows a weaker near-term U.S. growth outlook compared with the previous quarter.
• Real GDP is expected to grow about 2.2% in 2026 (annual average), a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the prior survey.
• Forecasters expect slower growth in each of the next several quarters, signaling a softening momentum in economic activity.
• Q2 headling inflation rose to 6%.
• The unemployment rate is projected to remain relatively stable, rising modestly from about 4.4% to 4.5% into early 2027.
• Inflation expectations for 2026 have been revised higher, especially in the short run, with CPI inflation expected to run above prior estimates.
• Forecasters see a higher probability of elevated inflation in 2026, including greater chances of CPI running above 3%.
• The risk of a negative GDP quarter rises in later periods of 2026, indicating increased downside risk to growth.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. (2026, May 15). Second quarter 2026 survey of professional forecasters. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026

Life Afloat: Freedom, Frustration, and Fixing Things That Should Have Worked the First Time

(Illustrative Only)

Should never feed a duck
just because its cute. 
I told it not to tell 
the other ducks. The next day
the extended family 
wants to move in. 🦆😐

Living and working on a boat is one of those experiences you really can’t explain unless you’ve done it. It’s not always accessible to everyone, though hopefully it becomes more so over time. Recreational boating and sailing are about more than just owning a boat. It’s about being on the water, surrounded by nature, feeling free, and living in a way that feels a little closer to how humans were probably designed to live before someone invented HOA meetings and email chains.

Once you spend enough time on a boat — not necessarily even living aboard full-time — you start to notice changes in how you see the world. Your stress level drops. Your priorities shift. Sunsets suddenly become a major event. Wind direction becomes breaking news. You begin casually saying things like, “The tide is against us today,” as if you’re an extra in a pirate documentary.

Joy… but also chaos.

Because no matter how peaceful boating looks on Instagram, eventually something breaks.

For example, I spent an absurd amount of time installing new port and starboard navigation lights. Apparently, the previous owner believed electrical systems should resemble abstract art, so I had to trace wires, fix grounding issues, and figure out why one light worked while the other one refused to acknowledge electricity entirely.

Seems easy, doesn’t it?

😬

“Just install a light,” they said.

Three hours later you’re upside down in a storage compartment questioning every life decision that led you to marine wiring.

I finally got them working though, and honestly, that little moment of accomplishment felt better than some professional achievements.

Next project:

• Fix the pump
• Reinspect the rigging
• Pretend cosmetic work is “optional”
• Eventually stop finding mysterious screws with no known purpose

Most of what’s left now is second-round cosmetic work. I made a nice canopy, added cushions, cleaned things up, and slowly turned the boat from “floating survival project” into “moderately respectable vessel.”

Then there are the inevitable delays. I had a pump go bad recently. The housing looked fine, I replaced the impeller, but the shaft looked worn. I tried ordering the replacement part and they basically told me:

“Absolutely. We can get that for you sometime between next month and the collapse of civilization.”

So I decided I’ll deal with it later. That’s part of boating too — learning the difference between:

• “critical repair”
  and
• “ehhh… probably fine for now.”

Mostly because marine mechanics charge roughly the GDP of a small island nation.

Boating also comes with stereotypes. People ask:
“So… are you like… a boat person?”

Which is hard to answer because there are several species of boat people.

There are the yacht club people:
Clean polos.
Wine tastings.
Dockhands.
Maintenance mysteriously handled by “a guy.”

Then there are the salty dogs:
These people can rebuild a diesel engine using a butter knife, zip ties, and pure spite.
They know every harbor.
Every weather pattern.
Every obscure marine part number ever created.

These are the people who actually teach you boating.

And then there are hybrids.

I put these
new Port and Starboard

😬
Navigation Lights

I have a friend who owned multiple successful dental practices, retired, and now casually fixes anything on a boat like a waterfront wizard. The man can discuss molars one minute and rebuild a marine pump the next. If I run into something impossible, he’s the guy I call before I start emotionally negotiating with the boat itself.

Because that happens too.

At some point every boat owner stands in silence staring at a broken part hoping it fixes itself out of mutual respect.

And despite all of this…
Despite the broken pumps.
The wiring disasters.
The mystery leaks.
The endless hunt for “a good mechanic.”

There are still few things better than waking up in the morning, making coffee, opening the laptop, and looking out over the harbor while seals, ducks, and boats drift by.

You can walk the marina, grab coffee, talk to random sailors for an hour about propellers or weather systems nobody else cares about, and spend the afternoon convincing yourself you’re “almost done” with repairs.

You are never almost done with repairs.

That’s the secret.

But for some of us, especially those who are single or a little more independent, it’s an incredible way to live. The mainlanders may not always understand it, but boating gives you a strange combination of freedom, problem-solving, peace, frustration, adventure, and occasional mild electrical trauma.

And somehow… that becomes the recreation itself.

Revitalizing U.S. Shipbuilding and Maritime Capacity (Photography)

Ships in the Bay photo

I can print most pictures up to
poster size for $50
Frame or Unframed. I do
this as a hobby so 50% for charity
and 50% for me. 
Send me a message to the right
or my email. 
You may check out My Gallery
and Art Page
 muradabel@gmail.com

The development of shipbuilding capacity is extremely important. As a nation, the United States has struggled to build enough ships to meet both commercial and strategic needs. While labor costs are often cited as the primary reason, the issue is far more complex. It also involves infrastructure, workforce development, supply chains, industrial planning, and the ability to secure the materials and technical expertise necessary for large-scale ship production.

A major challenge is ensuring that we have the human capital needed to sustain a modern shipbuilding industry. Skilled welders, engineers, naval architects, electricians, and logistics specialists are all essential to maintaining competitive shipyards. At the same time, there are regions with strong geographic advantages for shipbuilding and repair that are often overlooked or underutilized for economic, political, or strategic reasons (i.e. Escanaba has an underdeveloped port and ship repair and possible small ship building foundations so that concept could be explored.).

Addressing these problems requires rethinking how we approach industrial development. That includes examining stagnant assumptions, evaluating long-term infrastructure investments, and developing a clearer strategy around the types of ships the country wants to build. It also means considering how the United States can compete more effectively in the global ship market, where demand for both new vessels and ship repair services remains significant.

The article below is especially interesting because it provides a historical timeline of shipbuilding development and decline, helping explain how the industry evolved and why some nations became dominant players while others fell behind. It offers useful insight into the economic, technological, and strategic factors that continue to shape shipbuilding today.

Why the U.S. Struggles to Build Ships Competitively

• The article argues that the United States has struggled to remain competitive in commercial shipbuilding for more than a century, especially compared to countries like China, South Korea, and Japan.
• Historically, the U.S. excelled during the era of wooden sailing ships, but it lagged behind when the industry transitioned to steel and steam-powered vessels in the late 19th century.
• American shipbuilding costs remain significantly higher than those of foreign competitors due to expensive labor, slower production methods, regulatory burdens, and inconsistent industrial policy.
• Wartime periods such as World War I and World War II temporarily boosted U.S. shipbuilding capacity through massive government mobilization, standardized production, and prefabrication techniques, but the country failed to sustain that momentum commercially after the wars ended.
• Protectionist policies like the Jones Act helped preserve some domestic shipbuilding capability, but they also insulated the industry from international competition and reduced incentives for innovation and efficiency.
• The article highlights how Japan and later South Korea adopted and improved American wartime production techniques, eventually surpassing the U.S. in efficiency and global market dominance.
• Modern U.S. shipyards primarily survive through naval contracts and specialized offshore work rather than competitive commercial ship production.
• The piece concludes that the U.S. still produces important maritime innovations, but it has struggled to convert technological leadership into a globally competitive shipbuilding industry.

Potter, B. (2024, September 5). Why can’t the U.S. build ships? In N. Smith (Ed.), Noahpinion. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-cant-the-us-build-ships

Americans Not Especially Optimistic According to Poll 2026

 

(Illustrative Only)
A hypothetical
Feather Party member. 

"Listen young stuff, 
it is your time to bring, 
new ideas and new thoughts. 
New ways of doing things.

The hypothetical Feather
Party is for discussion purposes
as a philsophical
thought experiment on
independents forming
a third party that
seeks to limit
partisanship be encouraging
independent candidates
and limiting big
political donations. 

It doesn’t take much to walk around and talk to people to get a sense of the public mood. If you’re social and pay attention, you can feel that many people are frustrated or uncertain about the direction of the country. Of course, perspectives differ depending on political beliefs, but overall, the national mood is not especially optimistic.

This dissatisfaction is not the result of any one person, party, or moment. Many of these challenges have been developing for decades. People worry that the country is not as strong or as focused as it once was. Still, there are opportunities to adapt, improve, and move forward.

For years, companies have moved jobs and production overseas, costs have continued rising, and in many cases we have lost focus on long-term priorities. Too often, political systems reward the most connected individuals rather than the most capable leaders. Large political donors and special interests can heavily influence decision-making, creating conflicts of interest and weakening public trust and performance.

Because of this, we may need to rethink who we elect and what strategies we use as a society. Constant partisanship is not helping us solve problems. We should focus more on finding practical solutions and supporting talented, thoughtful people with new ideas.

Like any organization, the country must strengthen its finances by improving economic growth while also reducing unnecessary expenses. But solving problems is not simply about cutting everything back. Investments that help people grow, innovate, and contribute to society are still important. Economic strength also depends on trust — trust in government institutions, the courts, businesses, and one another. Without trust, long-term economic and social growth becomes much more difficult.

For too long, economics has often been viewed too narrowly. Strong societies are built not only through financial policies, but also through social stability, civic trust, education, opportunity, and shared purpose. Those factors help create periods of long-term growth and optimism (or the opposite 20 Year Economic Dashboard)

If pessimism and declining trust are going to be reversed, the next generation will need to step forward with fresh ideas and new energy. Democracy naturally renews itself when younger generations become involved and challenge outdated systems and habits. New voices, new leadership, and a willingness to work across political divisions can help move the country in a healthier direction.

No matter how someone chooses to vote, it is important to think carefully, listen critically, and support leaders and ideas they genuinely believe in. Civic participation matters most when people vote with thoughtfulness and conscience rather than simply out of habit or division.

*It is absolutely ok to have a different opinion and come to your own conclusion. This is just for discussion purposes. 

Americans Increasingly Believe the Nation’s Best Years Are Behind It

• A majority of Americans believe the country’s best years have already passed rather than still lie ahead.
• Americans are generally more pessimistic than optimistic about what life in the United States will look like 50 years from now.
• Majorities across racial and ethnic groups — including Black, Hispanic, White, and Asian adults — say the nation’s best years are behind it.
• Lower- and middle-income Americans are more likely than upper-income Americans to express pessimism about the country’s future.
• Political affiliation shapes attitudes: Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe the nation’s best years are behind it, though Republicans are also divided on the issue.
• Public opinion on America’s future tends to shift depending on which political party controls national government institutions.
• The findings reflect broader concerns Americans have expressed in recent surveys about the economy, political polarization, and long-term national direction.

Pew Research Center. (2026, May 15). A majority of Americans say the country’s best years are behind us. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/15/a-majority-of-americans-say-the-countrys-best-years-are-behind-us/

Sailing in Escanaba and Gladstone: Recreational Boating Industry Stats and Trends 2026 (Photography)

Escanaba Harbor

I can print most pictures up to
poster size for $50
Frame or Unframed. I do
this as a hobby so 50% for charity
and 50% for me. 
Send me a message to the right
or my email. 
You may check out My Gallery
and Art Page
 muradabel@gmail.com

If you enjoy sailing and find yourself near the Great Lakes, you may want to spend some time exploring what Escanaba and Gladstone have to offer. No need to fly overseas when we have gems here. Tourism in the area has been steadily growing, along with interest in recreational boating and sailing. The Upper Peninsula offers a unique mix of beautiful waterfront scenery, outdoor recreation, and a welcoming boating community that continues to expand each year.

Lately, I’ve even been thinking about getting my captain’s license and eventually buying a boat so I could take people out on the water on weekends for 3 hour fishing trips. Beyond sailing and boating itself, I genuinely enjoy working on boats and enjoy the culture and even the maintenance of boats (Reminds me that I have a pump I can't figure out but I did fix some lights.). There’s something rewarding about being connected to the water in that way.

For anyone interested in learning to sail, the Gladstone sailing School recently opened and appears to offer very affordable introductory opportunities, with some classes around $25. They also partner with organizations and sailing programs in Escanaba, which is great to see. When communities collaborate like that, it helps strengthen the regional market, grow tourism, and create more opportunities for both residents and visitors.

Gladstone Harbor

I can print most pictures up to
poster size for $50
Frame or Unframed. I do
this as a hobby so 50% for charity
and 50% for me. 
Send me a message to the right
or my email. 
You may check out My Gallery
and Art Page
 muradabel@gmail.com

Honestly, the area has the potential to become a strong destination for boating tourism. Some people travel specifically to take sailing courses or boating vacations, and the Upper Peninsula is a perfect setting for that kind of experience. If families are already looking for a summer getaway near the water, why not combine it with sailing lessons, marina activities, and waterfront recreation? That kind of experience adds value not only for visitors, but also for local businesses and the broader economy.

The same idea applies to the arts and community culture throughout the area. Fine arts programs, local events, community centers, and waterfront activities all contribute to making the region more attractive to tourists and future residents. Expanding and promoting those opportunities should be part of the long-term marketing vision for the area.

As for me, I’m looking forward to being back next week and spending plenty of time near the water this summer. I’m planning to sign up for the sailing school myself and hopefully join the Escanaba Yacht Club soon. I also spend a fair amount of time around the Gladstone Yacht Club, which has been a fun and welcoming place to connect with people who enjoy being out on the water.

Gladstone Sail School Webpage

Gladstone Sail School Sign Up Cost

Gladstone Yacht Club

Escanaba Yacht Club

Recreational Boating Industry Statistics and Market Trends in 2026

Mouth of Escanaba
Harbor 
I can print most pictures up to
poster size for $50
Frame or Unframed. I do
this as a hobby so 50% for charity
and 50% for me. 
Send me a message to the right
or my email. 
You may check out My Gallery
and Art Page
 muradabel@gmail.com

• The global recreational boating market continues to expand, with industry estimates valuing the sector between $35 billion and $48 billion in 2026 and projecting continued growth through 2035. Growth is being driven by outdoor recreation demand, tourism, technological innovation, and rising interest in marine leisure activities.

• The United States remains the world’s largest boating market, generating approximately $230 billion in annual economic impact and supporting more than 812,000 jobs. Around 85 million Americans participate in boating annually, and most boats owned in the U.S. are smaller, trailerable vessels under 26 feet.

• Consumer behavior in boating is shifting toward affordability and accessibility. Pre-owned boats account for nearly 80% of U.S. boat sales, while boat clubs, rentals, and subscription-style access models are becoming more popular among younger consumers who prefer experiences over full ownership.

• Technological innovation and sustainability are reshaping the industry. Electric and hybrid propulsion systems, AI-assisted navigation, smart monitoring systems, and marina charging infrastructure are becoming increasingly common as manufacturers respond to environmental concerns and changing consumer expectations.

• Although participation rates remain strong, the industry faces challenges related to rising boat prices, higher ownership costs, elevated interest rates, and softer consumer demand. Recent discussions among boat owners, dealers, and brokers suggest that affordability and market saturation are affecting both new and used boat sales in some regions.

Dream Yacht Sales. (2026, February 17). Recreational boating industry statistics 2026. Dream Yacht Sales. https://www.dreamyachtsales.com/blog/recreational-boating-industry-statistics/

Yoga, EQ, and Strategic Thinking in a Difficult World

(Illustrative Only)
Choose your life, 
how you want to live in it, 
and how you make 
personal and strategic 
choices. 

 Many people see practices like yoga, meditation, or spending time outdoors as signs of softness or avoidance of the “real world.” But that perspective misses something important. These activities can build moral, emotional, and even strategic strength in ways that are difficult to develop unless you learn how to slow down and look inward.

Yoga, for example, certainly improves flexibility, balance, coordination, and physical strength, but it also strengthens your ability to manage reactions and emotions. That matters because the world can sometimes be filled with selfishness and hostility. Emotional Intelligence EQ being a big predictor for life and work success.  Most people are decent at heart, but there are individuals and groups who seek power through intimidation, manipulation, and conflict. Yoga and EQ can help...

Take the “Allegory of the Clan,” a philosophical learning story about a group of bullies and bigots who targeted others in their community. They spread destructive rumors, made humiliating comments about people’s personal lives and worth, and sometimes even provoked physical confrontations. Their goal was not truth or justice, but reaction. They wanted their targets to show anger (which would be a normal reaction where people are intentionally harmed) so they could justify causing further harm.

In this example they didn't get what they wanted.....

What emotional intelligence teaches us is that strength is not always found in immediate reaction. Practices like yoga, mindfulness, martial arts, self-defense training, fencing, and other disciplined activities help develop inhibition, awareness, and choice. They teach you to pause, assess, and decide how you want to respond rather than allowing others to dictate your emotions. That is real strength of character. There are also strategic advantages in the workplace and life of choosing how to react and what your next options are without the quick fight or flight responses.

When you become more centered, you react better because you begin to recognize the fallibility and insecurity of others as well as the environmental factors that push us to make quick decisions (work or life). You realize that healthy, fulfilled people generally do not need to provoke, humiliate, or dominate others. Much of that behavior comes from unresolved struggles within themselves. Understanding this does not excuse harmful actions, but it gives you perspective and prevents you from internalizing their behavior as a reflection of your worth.

You cannot fully control your environment or the actions of others. You can influence the world around you, especially when working toward a positive purpose, but first you need to be grounded within yourself. If you are frustrated by dishonesty, cruelty, or selfishness, remember that those behaviors are ultimately reflections of the people engaging in them, not reflections of you. Yoga can foster an increased level of strategic choice.

That is why activities that cultivate balance and awareness matter. Yoga, mindfulness, sports, fitness, nature, and meaningful recreation are not escapes from life; they are ways of preparing yourself to engage with life more effectively, calmly, and intelligently. Your decisions get better and more accurate and that leads to personal life and career life choices that improve society and help fulfill organizational missions.

As a certified fitness trainer and yoga instructor, I can work with those who want to gain higher sense of self through fitness and yoga. I offer private virtual coaching sessions focused on fitness, wellness, mindfulness, and lifestyle development. Together, we can build a plan around nutrition, exercise, yoga, sports, or general wellness goals that fits your individual needs. If you want to enhance your performance in a specific sport I can help you improve that as well. Often, just a few sessions are enough to help establish a healthy direction, with occasional follow-ups later to track progress and refine goals.

I generally charge $50 for a private virtual session as a working hobby. About half of the proceeds are donated to charity, while the remainder helps support the activities. My goal is not only to help individuals improve their lives, but also to contribute positively to the broader community. muradabel@gmail.com

Short-Term Yoga Practice Enhances Well-Being and Emotional Resilience

• The article examines how short-term yoga practice may improve emotional regulation and psychological well-being.
• Researchers found that yoga participants showed reduced emotional reactivity to stressful or negative stimuli.
• Yoga practices involving breathing, mindfulness, and movement were associated with greater calmness and resilience.
• The study suggests that even relatively brief yoga interventions can positively influence cognitive and emotional functioning.
• Findings support the idea that yoga may strengthen long-term mental health by improving stress management and self-awareness.

Mocanu, E. (2018). Short-term yoga practice enhances wellbeing through improved emotional reactivity, supporting long-term resilience development. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6039555/

The Competitiveness of Economies Through Human Capital

Human capital is a major driver of both economic and social development. Research on cluster development suggests that growth depends not only on hard factors such as investment and infrastructure, but also on the social dynamics that connect people, organizations, and businesses within a community. Human capital acts as a bridge between knowledge, innovation, motivation, and social development, helping individuals and institutions grow together.

When discussing human capital, it is important to think beyond labor as a simple business input. Human development is shaped not only by personal qualities such as creativity, discipline, and motivation, but also by external conditions and opportunities. Access to education, mentorship, career pathways, social support, and collaborative networks all influence whether individuals can fully develop and apply their abilities.

From both organizational and national perspectives, strengthening human capital means creating environments where people can build skills, discover opportunities, and channel their talents into productive work. This includes investing in education, workforce development, entrepreneurship, and systems that support long-term personal and professional growth. It also requires strengthening the social networks and institutions that encourage higher performance and broader participation.

Studies such as the Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) are valuable because they emphasize how strongly future prosperity depends on investments in people through health, education, and employment opportunities. As artificial intelligence continues to expand, human capital may become even more important, particularly in areas that require creativity, adaptability, judgment, and cognitive diversity.

Nations that reduce barriers to education, healthcare, workforce participation, and skill development are likely to become more competitive in the future economy. Although every country faces different challenges, those that expand opportunities for human development and reduce obstacles to participation will likely achieve stronger long-term economic and social outcomes.

Global Human Capital Development and Economic Productivity: Key Findings from the Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) 2026

• The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures how health, education, and employment affect future productivity and earnings.
• Children born today are projected to lose about 47% of their future earning potential due to current human capital gaps worldwide.
• The index expands beyond childhood education by including workforce participation and lifelong skill development.
• Education and employment create the largest differences in human capital outcomes between countries.
• Low-income countries experience the greatest human capital deficits and the largest potential gains from reform.
• Countries with similar income levels often have very different outcomes, showing that policy and institutions matter significantly.
• Major regional disparities exist, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East/North Africa regions.
• Gender gaps in employment remain a major contributor to lower earnings potential for women globally.
• The report recommends stronger investments in nutrition, education, workforce training, childcare, and workplace learning.
• Human capital development depends not only on schools and healthcare, but also on families, neighborhoods, and employment opportunities.

World Bank. (2026). The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) 2026: Findings brief. World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099811402092628470