Saturday, July 5, 2025

US Economic Forecast July 2025 (Deloitte Projection)

Reviewing various authorities and publications is a valuable way to understand how modern economics functions and the underlying reasons behind economic policies and decisions. At its core, economics is the study of human behavior expressed through quantifiable measures such as dollars, percentages, and other numerical data. The American Economic Association defines economics as the study of scarcity, which aligns closely with this concept. American Economic Association-What is Economics?

Economists study the economy by analyzing a range of metrics and benchmarks grounded in economic theory. These theories evolve as new discoveries are made, much like any scientific discipline. Importantly, economics is based on the best available knowledge at any given time. As technology advances, so does our ability to understand economic behavior and refine theoretical frameworks (The wizards of science).

From the Report Deloitte July 2025 US Economic Projection:

  • Reduction in tariff rates

  • Extension of tax reductions

  • Decline in the federal funds rate

  • GDP growth projected at 1.4% for 2025 and 2026; real GDP expected to rise further in 2027 and 2028

  • Continued interplay between inflation and employment levels

  • Slight increase in consumer spending anticipated in 2026

  • Ongoing home price inflation

  • Slower business investment expected in 2025, followed by significant growth in 2026 and 2027

  • Tariffs projected to increase but become more stable

  • Potential increase in new business formation

  • More



 

Protecting Democracy Through Actualized Commitment (The Clan: A Hypothetical Thought Experiment on Hate and Corruption)

Our democracy thrives
when we believe and share commitment 
to fundamental values.
  Word and Deed

It is important to uphold our values consistently—even when doing so is unpopular or inconvenient. In our theoretical discussion on hate and corruption, we examined how these forces can distort closed systems. Increasingly referred to as “closed clan systems,” these environments often lack ethical standards, social contracts, and moral conscience. Their primary goal, much like clans throughout history, is to preserve internal advantages and dominate perceived outsiders.

Imagine a scenario where members of such a clan exploit their positions, personal networks, and even the judicial system—leveraging backchannel conversations to harm others and enrich themselves. In these settings, group hatred and aggression are often encouraged but rarely questioned due to social collusion. Judges aligned with the clan may consistently rule in favor of those closest to themselves, regardless of clear conflicts of interest. Constitutional principles and societal values become secondary—weak and largely absent from their decision-making framework.

To be clear, the vast majority of individuals in official positions strive to act with integrity. They are the ones we honor and should promote upward. However, there are also those with conscious and at times unconscious biases—based on social, racial, religious, or cultural familiarity—that can shape decisions, particularly in environments where dissent leads to ostracism or reputational harm. These pressures help ensure that core democratic principles are not fully implemented. The same tactics are used to silence victims and punish whistleblowers, all in service of protecting the clan's internal interests. In such environments, the law becomes a tool of mistreatment rather than a shield of justice.

Over time, unwritten rules evolve from repeated misbehaviors, forming a collective identity rooted in a narrow, cult-like misperception of society. In these systems, people are placed into hierarchical boxes of perceived worth, often unrelated to their actual contributions or character. Pleasing the in-group takes precedence over upholding the law or serving the public good. Institutions are then manipulated to benefit a select few at the expense of many. Survey after survey confirms that such environments erode public trust, national pride, and civic engagement. Decision-makers cannot plead ignorance—in this philosophical example, they knowingly choose to defend and reward the very behaviors the system was designed to prevent. Yet, more constructive paths remain available.

When wrongdoing is known and ignored, bystanders become complicit. They bear responsibility not just for past victims, but for those who will be harmed in the future. Like the ghosts of Christmas (past, present and future), these failures will reemerge under future scrutiny and reflection. What is dismissed in the moment—those subtle cues and overlooked signs—often reveal the presence of heuristic-driven bias or deeply ingrained corruption (In some ways if you recorded, mapped, and analyzed behaviors you would find the intentionality and well used paths of such behaviors).

When leaders, courts, or administrators bow to injustice to appease insiders, and when victims are left without recourse, it becomes clear that safeguards have failed. There is no genuine commitment to the values once sworn to uphold. Some of the damage may be reversible; some will never be undone. That knowledge often fuels the clan's swift and shameless retaliation—to protect what cannot be defended if exposed. A clearn and open thwarting of our shared sacred values. A lot rides on our ability to support lofty principles and ensure we have the mechanisms to enforce those lofty principles for the greater good.

Don't steal my book idea! 
It would probably make a good 
Steven King type movie.
Teach people about hate and corruption.
Maybe how to avoid it. A tale of moral conscious!💁
This is why it's critical to elevate the most capable and ethical individuals in our institutions—not merely those who are friends, allies, or who share a particular race, religion, or political affiliation. The shared values that hold our democracy together must be treated as sacred. They are far more important than any clan’s internal belief about how institutions should serve their interests. The guiding light of democracy must always shine brighter than the shadows cast by hate and corruption. When it doesn’t, we have failed. And where failure is intentional, we must reckon with the long-term consequences of abandoning institutional purpose and the people those institutions exist to serve.

Despite this, men and women across the nation continue to believe in and act on behalf of our shared democratic values—even in the face of mistreatment and dehumanization. Just as there is a process of dehumanization, thought experiments like this can help explore what rehumanization might look like—should we choose to restore the true purpose of justice. That is, if we still believe in it. Not all decisions seem to reflect that belief. Humanization and Dehumanization Process 

Learning examples like this reveal what happens when commitment to democratic principles is low and institutional checks and balances are weak. Clan-driven systems must be confronted and reoriented toward a moral and ethical framework. Keep in mind: many of these harmful behaviors are not accidental—they are willful choices. Outcomes are reflections of inner dialogue and values. They present short-, mid-, and long-term risks to victims and society at large if correction is ignored or deemed too inconvenient.

Your role is to remain positive, polite, and persistent—encouraging leadership to live up to the values they proclaim. That is the best way to resist and diminish the influence of "The Clan." Hopefully that movie doesn't get replayed in a theater near you (Side note: It sounds like it would be a good book or movie. Something like the "The Clan: A Hypothetical Thought Experiment on Hate and Corruption". 🤔 I should have started that 5 years ago when this story sort of was formed as a learning tool.)

As Thomas Jefferson wisely stated:

Bigotry is the disease of ignorance, of morbid minds; enthusiasm of the free and buoyant. Education and free discussion are the antidotes of both.”

*This is a hypothetical, philosophical, theoretical thought experiment discussion for learning purposes so take with a grain of salt. Feel free to have a varying opinion. 

Friday, July 4, 2025

Gladstone Fireworks in Pictures and Video: Like It Used to Be!

Gladstone's fireworks drew crowds from near and far, with vendors, food trucks, and a lively parade setting the stage for a spectacular show. The weather was perfect—comfortable with or without a sweatshirt. Nestled along the pristine Great Lakes in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, both Gladstone and nearby Escanaba have seen renewed investment and growing interest. These towns have much to celebrate—not just for their community events, but for their resilience and revival. Good towns, good people—the way it used to be (Yikes a Bartles & James Moment! Bartles & James - 4th of July Ad - 1985)

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The park and marina

Visitors and Locals Celebrate at Gladstone's Parade

Gladstone parade drew a lot of crowds as people lined the streets. This is one of the bigger events in the area and people come from all other. Veterans, horses, cars, fire departments, organizations, and much came out. I believe there was more people this time than last year. I even heard more than one say they came in to vacation and just for this event. 











 

Happy 4th of July!

 


Thursday, July 3, 2025

Why Join Civic and Democratic Organizations?

There are certain values that every American should understand and reflect on, especially when considering their fundamental commitment to those ideals. As an ever-evolving society, we continue to uphold certain self-evident truths that carry forward from generation to generation. Civic and democratic organizations play a vital role in educating the public about these values and fostering a shared sense of responsibility in upholding them.

These organizations are not only meaningful institutions that advocate for essential democratic principles, but also provide enjoyable spaces to socialize, connect with others, and strengthen community ties. They often require a genuine commitment to democratic values as a condition of membership. For example, groups like AMVETS or the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) require military service by members or their immediate family, while others such as the Eagles or Elks may require a formal pledge or oath. In both cases, expressing a belief in core democratic principles is fundamental.

Civic participation strengthens our communities, supports the health of our nation, and even benefits our personal well-being. Civic Participation-OASH

One organization I admire—especially fitting for the Fourth of July—is AMVETS. Veterans and their families are welcome to join. Join AMVETS. There are others in San Diego and Escanaba that have a lot of value and you should consider exploring (Eagles and Elks are awesome!)

Happy 4th of July and Thank you veterans for all that you do for our society and communities.

CEO Performance Raises Firm Value: Thriving Through Business Stages

Firm performance is often closely tied to the performance of its CEO—a principle that also applies to non-profits. Similarly, the overall quality of the management team significantly influences decision-making and ultimately shapes organizational outcomes. Firms are essentially bundles of efficient activities; when they create value in a way that generates profit, they tend to grow. If they fail to do so, decline is inevitable. To remain competitive, organizations must adapt at a pace that is neither too fast nor too slow—finding the optimal rate of change is key.

Most businesses experience a life cycle that spans from inception to eventual decline. The five stages of the business life cycle illustrate this progression. The 5 Stages of a Business Life Cycle Extending a business's vitality requires strong leadership—people capable of rejuvenating the organization. This includes introducing fresh ideas, embracing new perspectives, applying sound financial judgment, and making strategic, evidence-based decisions.

The study referenced below reinforces the idea that CEO performance—and likely might be expanded to the performance of other executives—directly impacts organizational success. Sometimes, maintaining or improving firm performance may require leadership changes. It is ultimately the responsibility of the board and organizational leadership to assess capabilities and make decisions that ensure the highest quality individuals are in place.

CEO Skill and Firm Performance