Saturday, March 29, 2025

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey March 2025

Keeping up with the news leads to greater awareness of shifts, changes, and adjustments. Consumer sentiment has experienced some challenges.

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey March 2025

A couple of key points in the publication:

-Yearly inflation expections moved from 4.3% to 5% inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 5.0%.

-Long-run inflation moved from 3.5% to 4.1%

-Concerns revolved around personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation.

-Unemployment expected to rise.

*The American Association of Economists has an older publication on the relationship between consumer confidence and spending. A little discussion on what causes consumer confidence to change. Consumer Confidence and Spending

Free Trade Winners and Losers

There are winners and losers of free trade. For the most part people have gained overall but there are instances where it is not even and those who didn't have high skilled trades or a high education seemed to lose out in global skills competition. Further, income disparity went higher as a class of people who had resources moved up but those without resources receded. Since Covid the U.S. has obtained some benefits from free trade but will need to ensure that its industries stay competitive internationally as well foster new industries (Theoretically there is a method to that.).

Feel freee to buy
a book on Free Trade
A few other things
I got listed. Other Things
The case for encouraging innovation, human capital development, research/science, small/medium business, infrastructure development, and international partnerships has not gone away. If anything, it has risen. A discussion on short term versus long-term tariffs is ongoing while ensuring fair trade through appropriate negotiations with international partners is helpful.

The Federal Reserve of Cleveland discusses the uneven nature of free trade in The Winners and Losers from Trade

You may be interested in reading a 2009 book on Free Trade and what people thought out it then. Very interesting because it was just becoming an important issue at that time. The author debates the pros and cons but seem to be a little more against. In today's world, it would seem that having free trade is generally positive but there should be some safeguards for things like product dumping, unfair practices, etc. Economists will continue to debate into the future.....

Side Note: I have a lot of books sitting on the shelf and seem to keep collecting them, speed reading and then throwing them somewhere. So, I decided I would try and sell a few and see if I can raise a little money for charities. I generally sought to give over 50% of profits for my hobbies away. Mostly I have given away 100% I believe except the occasional charity dinner. I recently bumped up some of my books and art to 30% direct charity deduction and the rest will go to local stuff as well as a special cause for orphans (Donate to Orphans). Also, I noticed that the LA Fire Department has a donation option there and I think I will try and create that selection for our local department when I get some time. If your interested in providing a corporate donation or personal donation to a great fire department let me know to the right and I will point you in the right direction. Anway...buy a book.

A Study on Social Trust and GDP (Hypothetical Thought Experiment)

Social trust is the part of the glue that keeps society working together, ensuring institutional health, exchanging information, engaging in commerce, and all types of other behaviors that lead to thriving community resilience. While many economists have a hard time evaluating such person-to-person trust it is an essential bedrock of how people interact and relate to each other to successful navigation a wider environment (We can discuss micro transactions at a later date but just for now keep in the back of your head why communities form and around what purposes).

We have been exploring an interesting hypothetical philosophical theoretical thought experiment for pontification and to learn about the fundamentals of good societal health. In this example, the general members of a community developed social trust from ongoing prosocial behaviors and shared commitment to building a brighter future. People were inclusive and cared about each other's well-being (You can see that in how they donate to community members who suffered from a calamity, how they volunteer to support institutions, how they do nice things for each other, so on and so forth.)

The good works of the community were in contrast to the Clan who were involved in all types of bad behaviors that were self-seeking and put people intentionally in harm's way (i.e. alleged rape of an underage girl, exploiting a child who needed help to extort money from parents, manipulating the elderly, threats, religious cleansing, mistreating veterans, false rumors, and much more.). As red flags went up everywhere it appeared no one came to help the community and they were on their own (Some of the harm can never be undone and there was no reflective pause before willfully ruining people's lives. Sociopaths would blush.)

A fed-up community over blatant foot dragging and unfair protections began an informal campaign of mass reporting of corrupted behaviors to various agencies at different levels. Remember, that other crimes were reported but were often quickly retaliated against and victims concerns dismissed at times. Some went out of their to encourage, brag about, and financial reward misdeeds. No longer could the false narratives and undeserved immunities shield perpetrators from behaviors that would not be acceptable in any society.

 A positive community identity formed that cannot come from any other place then overcoming a challenge (theoretically). The People/We the People began to undo in/out group misleading barriers put in place by more exploitive members (Divide and conquer was their goal). The community voted their conscious and removed poor actors. Patriotic officials and citizens worked informally hand in hand to protect what they deeply believed in, what their parents, grandparents, and forefathers/mothers sacrificed to protect (Many unsung heroes of democratic health).

 With each prosocial act, tomorrow got brighter......

In this example there are 5 stages that ranged from default to community resilience. We also may see a sixth stage form that includes not only restoring trust but also perhaps raising it to a new level unseen in a community’s history (Give people a sense of belonging, a purpose and a path and they can do wonderful things.). When people work together in a way where they can see the results of their efforts, be that economic growth, better schools, cleaner streets, a new project, quality of life improvements, etc., they will feel connected and optimistic. Shared optimism has real value on a root person to person level (Research on optimism, productivity, and innovation.).

We should consider how social trust and institutional trust have a profound impact on our environment. Social Trust and GDP Study

Democratical States must always feel before they can see: it is this that makes their Governments slow, but the people will be right at last." George Washington

*This is a hypothetical, philosophical, theoretical thought experiment for learning purposes that explores numerous topics that include freedom of speech, freedom of religion, Constitution, social contracts, essential universal values, democracy, voting, etc. It is meant as a type of discussion and it is ok to agree or disagree. 


Friday, March 28, 2025

Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) 2024/25 Indicates an Entrepreneurial Economy in US

Gladstone MI has one
of the nicest upscale looking 
downtowns in the area.
Coffee shop, barber, bars, brewery,
post office, bike shop, restaurants, etc. 
Escanaba is the next
area where entrepreneurship has
started to take off.
The U.S. is seen as a place where entrepreneurship can thrive, and we often find in capitalistic societies that entrepreneurs are honored champions of the economy. There has been some concentration of wealth over the past few decades and helping people start businesses also helps create the foundation of innovation and future job growth as a generative source as new products/ideas take off. Feeding long-term economic health is based in part in capital flowing to various new ventures and ideas in small and medium entities in addition to their larger cousins. 

You can read the report Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) 2024/25

-Total entrepreneurship reaches 19% 2024 in the U.S.

-2/3 indicate job insecurity an issue.

-7% of Americans running mature businesses.

-25% of entrepreneurs are 18-24. The Secrets to Success of Young Entrepreneurs

-Veterans and active duty have a higher rate of entrepreneurship

-Being born in the U.S. or immigrant didn't seem to have an impact.

-Largest percentage wholesale/retail and 44% introducing new product/service in the area.

-73% expected to hire at least one employee in the next 5 years.

-82% believe that entrepreneurship is a good career choice.

A couple of notes/thoughts:

One of the things I have been thinking about is about how attracting entrepreneurs to downtowns such as Escanaba can make a difference in long-term success. The downtown and area has attracted alot of attention in recent years. Escanaba is now known as a hot spot. Next to Escanaba is Gladstone as a sister town. It is actually just across the bay and people know each other. Rival highschool sports teams. Gladstone has a very nice little downtown that can be a model for other small entities. This can be especially true for serial entrepreneurs who may succeed or fail but ultimately keep going improving their environment. Attracting a number of them to the downtown and you might find different businesses starting and the downtown growing. Encouraging new business ownership relies in part on the existing businesses, grants, costs, permits/regulations, low-interest loans, and a number of other things.

2025 Veterans Benefit Guide, News and Phone App

Learning military history.
Marines
Iwo Jima 1945
Source: National Archives
Keeping veterans up to date on the news and information helps to ensure our patriots are healthy and living the full life that they deserve. Communities like Escanaba have gone out of their way to help veterans and started a number of initiatives that include a new Veteran’s Center, Museum, hiring of a Veterans Service Officer, additional resources and more. You can click some of the links in the right column under resources at Escanaba Amvets.

The links below will help you stay informed on the news, download the VA Phone App, and the 2025 Veterans Benefit Guide.

Thank you for your service!

VA News

VA Phone App

2025 Veterans Benefit Guide

Q4 2024 Corporate Profits Up and GDP Up

The fourth quarter of 2024 was pretty strong with GDP increasing at an annual rate of 2.4% over the year and corporate profits increased $204.7 billion. Relatively good news but one might like to see increased in exports while imports be based more in supplies/resources that can be used to create higher value products (i.e. higher export value). 

Read GDP 4Q, 2024 BEA


Source: BEA Q4, 2024

You`can also see which industries contributed and which did not. 

Source: BEA Q4, 2024


Can Gifted Teach Us About Neural Learning and Methods of Solving Unique Problems?

Learning comes as natural to us as drinking water or craving a banana cream pie. We learn throughout our lives both formally and naturally through informal channels and experience. In education we have different styles of learning. Each of them relates in some ways to our methods of understanding and providing sensory experiences that deepen learning can help. While there may be different styles, each codes information on a neural level. Understanding how learning leads to unique solutions and deep knowledge is helpful for finding ways to foster similar learning with other students. Types of Learning Styles

While formal learning can provide us specific skills, theory, and expose us to best practices learned within a field over many years, it is often the informal learning that can be the most profound. We often call this experience and some people can create a manager's gut feeling that hedges formal and informal experience to make the best decisions. In some that deeper learning can lead to more accurate thinking.

Most Learning is Subconscious

Let us consider that most gifted people's brains are wired differently, and they have excitabilities that impact their learning in a way that most can't emulate (It is part of biology). This is why there is a difference between smart and gifted. The gifted dig deep into formal learning but also use their informal learning processes rooted in some of their overexcitabilities to deeply process information from their environment and fields of study. Overexcitabilities are part of over stimulation related to information inputs. The smart often repeat others already know and have learned leading to A+ in class.

Gifted Learning Styles

Pattern detection and predictability are factors that gifted people often excel. They can process information on a deeper level and have enough formal knowledge to put it within useful framework. This is also why they sometimes make new scientific discoveries because on a deeper subconscious level they can connect concepts, ideate and then come to a new conclusion/prediction/model.

The process of cognitive leaps is often more common with some people where two different processes come to solve a major problem. Keep in mind that solving a problem using abstract conception requires the capacity to think in ways that others may have not done prior. It leads to a new solution. A level of profound creativity sometimes must occur to abstractly determine events, factors, and outputs. Creative Breakthrough

The background of such learning is based in the deep neural processing of some gifted people and years of experience and background knowledge exploring ideas mentally and physically. Problem solving is abstract and one could make the argument that what sets gifted people up as different is this deep neural processing they were born with (i.e. the gifted curse with all of its traits.) Neural Learning

This article is really more about exploring an idea of creative breakthroughs, cognitive leaps and gifted capacity. I'm not sure there is a right or wrong answer here. However, a question rose about cellular learning and predictability of environment. Do we learn on a deep neural level automatically for survival and in turn creae problem resolutions? The gifted would seem to be a good place to look because they seem to have more creative breakthroughs in history. 

*As a side thought could one create a sequence of learning that utilizes formal knowledge, mixed with lived experience and abstract problems to find those who can create the most unique and successful solutions? Those who give a canned answered learned well but those who created a solution went beyond that learning. Maybe or maybe not?