Advanced Economic Indicators Report December 2025

A release by the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that in December 2025, exports declined slightly while the trade deficit persisted, with imports continuing to exceed exports. At the same time, sales remained relatively strong compared to inventory levels, suggesting stable demand and steady overall economic activity. These findings point to continued economic stability in the near term (assuming a constant), but also highlight an ongoing imbalance in trade that is unlikely to resolve without structural changes.

Addressing this imbalance may require rethinking current economic approaches. One potential direction is to strengthen innovation and development by supporting small, micro, and medium-sized businesses. Expanding opportunities for these businesses can help revitalize local economies, rebuild downtown areas, and increase tax revenue across communities. This approach reflects a shift toward a more broad-based form of capitalism, where economic resources and decision-making are more widely distributed and closer to local populations.

Encouraging entrepreneurship, investing in human capital, exports of products, and adjusting policies to better support emerging and smaller enterprises could provide greater opportunities for future generations, who may face more economic challenges than those before them. In some ways a result of overconsolidation and its influence.

Advanced Economic Indicators Report December 2025. Released Feb. 19th, 2026:

• Exports of goods were about 180.0 billion dollars, a decrease of 5.6 billion dollars from the previous month

• Imports of goods were about 278.6 billion dollars, remaining significantly higher than exports and contributing to a trade deficit

• Wholesale inventories were approximately 918.0 billion dollars, increasing 0.2% from the prior month and 2.9% year-over-year

• Total business inventories reached about 2,680.7 billion dollars, rising 0.1% month-over-month and 1.6% compared to the previous year

• The business inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.36, slightly lower than 1.39 the previous year, indicating relatively stronger sales compared to inventory levels

• Overall findings suggest modest inventory growth, steady economic activity, and a continued trade imbalance with imports exceeding exports

U.S. Census Bureau. (2026, February 19). Advance economic indicators report: December 2025. Retrieved March 19, 2026, from https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/current/index.html

The Conference Board Economic Forecase 2026-2.1% Real GDP

(Illustrative Only)

An economic forecaster
out in Bark River
trying to see the future.

"Yes, yes I see it
now my pretty." 

The ball says,
"Increase savings,
spend on what you need, 
avoid emotional spending, 
and invest your reserves"

Not sure what
the future says. 
Changes in the wind.

2026 is shaping up to be an edge-of-your-seat year. There are significant geopolitical, economic and political developments creating a climate of uncertainty, and that uncertainty is likely to slow hiring. While companies may not move toward large-scale layoffs, many could delay hiring decisions as they wait for clearer signals about where and when to invest.

As seen since COVID-19, conditions can shift quickly—sometimes validating projections, and other times proving them wrong. In this case, forecasts from The Conference Board suggest real GDP growth of about 2.1%, which represents moderate, steady expansion—neither particularly strong nor weak. Ideally, growth would be higher, accompanied by consistently low inflation, but that remains uncertain.

Consumer spending may face pressure, and while the labor market has shown resilience, overall job stability and consumer confidence could fluctuate. Inflation also remains a potential concern, largely depending on the pace and direction of economic activity. As with much of the current outlook, the trajectory of 2026 will depend on how these uncertainties evolve over time.

The Conference Board Economic Forecast for 2026 (Updated March 11, 2026):

• The U.S. economic outlook is characterized by slowing growth entering 2026, with weaker economic activity signaled by leading indicators and softening conditions at the end of 2025

• Real GDP growth is projected to remain modest, around 2.1% in 2026, reflecting a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp contraction

• Consumer demand is a key uncertainty, with future growth dependent on whether households can sustain spending amid inflationary pressures and economic constraints

• Labor market conditions show signs of softening, including rising unemployment claims and reduced manufacturing hours, contributing to weaker overall momentum

• Consumer confidence has been volatile, with declines followed by modest rebounds, reflecting mixed perceptions of current conditions and future expectations

• Business and CEO sentiment highlight elevated uncertainty as a primary economic risk, alongside concerns about a potential downturn or recession

• Inflation and affordability pressures (e.g., energy, food, and trade-related costs) continue to weigh on consumers and economic expectations

• Overall, the forecast suggests a period of moderate growth with downside risks tied to weakening demand, labor market softness, and persistent uncertainty

The Conference Board. (2026). Economic forecast for the US economy. https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast

Story of the Clan: A Philosophical Discussion on A Default of Justice and Renewed Commitment to Shared Values

The development of society depends in part on all three branches of government functioning effectively and in alignment with foundational principles such as the Constitution, laws, and shared civic values. When partisanship and bias enter public institutions, trust erodes, producing long-term consequences for national development and social cohesion. One way to explore these dynamics is through a philosophical, learning-oriented story designed for reflection and contemplation.

Consider the “Story of the Clan” as a hypothetical thought experiment illustrating a breakdown in justice. Stories like this can serve as tools for learning and institutional improvement. At their core, systems and institutions must continuously take in new information, adapt, and evaluate both their performance and the trust placed in them. While illustrative, the story underscores important questions about whom these institutions serve and how they fulfill that responsibility.

In this scenario, taxpayer money is misused, informal “good old boy” networks dominate, and personal boundaries are openly disregarded with official awareness. Public safety is compromised, and vulnerable populations—including children and the elderly—are placed at risk. The situation involves human and civil rights violations, a lack of accountability, the spread of false rumors that incite aggression, and the dehumanization of individuals. Those engaging in misconduct were rewarded, while the courts initially tolerate or overlook these actions, particularly when directed at perceived “out-groups” defined by race, religion, or political identity, suggesting the influence of extremism and partisanship.

This narrative highlights how a systemic failure of justice can emerge from a misunderstanding of institutional purpose and role. Manipulative behavior becomes incentivized, while harm is inflicted quickly and corrected slowly—an inversion of what just systems should uphold. Although some errors may stem from misjudgment or lack of information, others may reflect the biases or perspectives of decision-makers rather than the lived realities of those affected. In some cases, only a few toxic actors, combined with weak checks & balances and reliance on informal or “unwritten” codes, can begin to distort an entire system.

At the same time, the story points to the capacity for correction. Societies can and do learn, especially when they recognize that the well-being of the whole must take precedence over the interests of a few. In the “Story of the Clan,” the courts initially fail by privileging select individuals as having surface value over others, but reform becomes possible when principled officials and engaged citizens act in defense of the law’s true purpose rather than its flawed application. The broader principles of good governance and judicial integrity should transcend political affiliation, race, religion, and personal belief. Ideals such as freedom of speech, religious liberty, and civic responsibility retain enduring value. These principles remain as relevant today as ever—they simply require attention and a sustained commitment to uphold them.

The Story of the Clan is a philosophy of adaptive development around shared principles

(Side note: Stay tuned for the Story of the Clan which will be written into a narrative of risks and recovery from intentional wrongdoing that leads to rejuvenation and higher commitment to oaths/values and institutional health. Or not...it just depends on how much time I have. Mostly I just sort of enjoy not doing much of anything. Do a lot of reading for the enjoyment of it, a little art, a little exercise, so on and so forth. ) 

Protecting fair and impartial courts: Reflections on judicial independence. 

• Judicial independence is essential to maintaining the rule of law, ensuring that courts can make decisions free from political pressure, public opinion, or influence from other branches of government.

• The article emphasizes that impartiality and fairness depend on structural protections such as life tenure, secure salaries, and clear ethical standards for judges.

• Increasing political polarization and public criticism of court decisions pose growing challenges to maintaining trust in the judiciary and safeguarding its independence.

• Strengthening public understanding of the judicial role and reinforcing institutional safeguards are critical to preserving confidence in courts and upholding democratic principles.

Judicature. (n.d.). Protecting fair and impartial courts: Reflections on judicial independence. Duke Law Center for Judicial Studies. https://judicature.duke.edu/articles/protecting-fair-and-impartial-courts-reflections-on-judicial-independence/

Altruism During Blizzards, Emergencies and Disasters in the Upper Peninsula

(Illustrative Only)

Dog sleds still 
have a purpose
around here. 

So do snowmobiles.

 We recently experienced a blizzard—our own version of a natural disaster—with two days of relentless, horizontal snowfall pounding against the windows. There was real concern about losing power, which would have affected heating, and the snow continued to pile up for days. Trees were at risk of cracking under the weight, and no one could leave their homes. Even after nearly four feet of snow fell, it took another full day just to dig out, and several more for life to return to normal.

What stands out in situations like this, especially in our area, is how neighbors take care of one another. People share materials, resources, and time whenever needed. For example, one neighbor’s truck got stuck while trying to plow his driveway—the snow was so deep it lifted the vehicle off its wheels. Several of us went out and spent about an hour digging him out, after which he was able to clear his driveway and get to work as a first responder. We have a few in the neighborhood.

In another instance, a neighbor ran out of gas for his snowblower, so I gave him some from my own supply. Later, while I was struggling with a five-foot snow drift in front of my house, that same neighbor returned the favor by using his truck to plow part of my driveway. Another neighbor joined in to help snowblow, and together we were able to manage the situation.

Experiences like this highlight an important reality: in times of crisis, communities rely on one another. While broader societal discussions often focus on large-scale policies and infrastructure, they can overlook the human, community-level interactions where real support and resilience are built. It is within these everyday acts of cooperation that the true values of society are formed and sustained. Listen to the average person and you will find our collective wisdom that doesn't always filter upward.

How do people support each other in emergencies? A qualitative exploration of altruistic and prosocial behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

• Study analyzed 104 real-world stories of altruistic behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic to understand patterns of helping behavior across countries

• Groups receiving the most support included older adults, individuals with health conditions or disabilities, frontline workers, and marginalized or working-class populations

• Three main types of support were identified: material (e.g., goods/resources), social/emotional, and psychological assistance

• Support was provided by a range of actors, including organizations, volunteers, and individuals from more advantaged groups

• Key motivations for helping behavior included a shared sense of humanity or community identity, allyship, and expressions of gratitude

• Findings highlight how prosocial behavior can emerge strongly during crises and contribute to supporting vulnerable populations

• The study contributes to understanding how and why people engage in altruism during emergencies, emphasizing the importance of social connection and collective responsibility

Tekin, S., Sager, M., Bushey, A., Deng, Y., & Uluğ, Ö. M. (2021). How do people support each other in emergencies? A qualitative exploration of altruistic and prosocial behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 21(1), 1113–1140. https://doi.org/10.1111/asap.12277

Q4 2025 National GDP Grew 0.7% (Delta County Growth Trend Upward)

(Illustrative Only)

Peter is stuck
in a 2 day blizzard
so he is catching
up on some 
reading.

Delta County MI has
grown, investment is
up, GDP is rising, 
some information
indicates increased
household income
and lower crime. 
The downtown provides
affordable buildings,
new businesses, and
an ideal place to
launch a start-up. 
Skilled worforce
and a few larger anchor
industries with strong
infrastructure and
T1 lines. A number of
fun local activities
and recreational 
opportunities.

Peter wonders if 
broad based capitalism
where micro, small, and
medium businesses
can help
downtown regrowth
and improve local
wealth generation.
This is a little different
than concentrated
capitalism where wealth
moves upward. In 
broad based capitalism
more wealth stays local,
improves tax revenue
and in the hands of
average folk.

GDP growth was revised downward to 0.7%, signaling slower economic momentum than initially expected. Although earlier data appeared strong, underlying economic and social factors suggested some weakness, which now seems to be showing in the updated numbers.

There has been some growth in business investment, particularly in research and development, which is important for driving innovation. However, Federal government spending declined due to the shutdown, and exports also decreased—an unfavorable trend since stronger exports typically support economic growth.

Overall, the U.S. economy grew by 2.2% in 2025, which is slower than the 2.8% growth seen in 2024. It remains unclear whether this slowdown represents a longer-term trend or a short-term shift, as economic patterns tend to evolve over time rather than occur in isolation.

At the local level, some regions continue to show positive signs. For example, Delta County MI has experienced indicators of growth, including new business activity and ongoing investment. While official GDP data for 2025 is not yet available, early signs suggest that strong community engagement and local development efforts may continue to support growth in the area.

Delta County Stats Indicates Growth Trend

Feb 5 2026 GDP BEA Release County   Delta County Michigan is a rural place in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. While 2025 stats are not out yet a change in county and city leadership around the same time seems to have contributed with a greater 'sense of community' that resulted in a level of growth and new development GDP by County  and DC GDP by Year. Delta County was one of the higher growth counties for Michigan GDP County Table 2024 Michigan. You will also find that the GDP for Delta County went from negative 2022 -0.8, 2023 -1.3 and jumped in 2024 + 3.9. DC Year.   If you run some other stats you will further find that household income may have bumped signifantly in 2025 and crime has reduced substantially and this is unlikely a coincidence. One might say in theory this is the social and economic side of development that helps one see Delta County as a hot spot model for development and social engagement. Young families should consider this when they are searching for a place for a start-up. Ludington Street has some excellent affordable places. 

 Percentage.Gross domestic product (second estimate), fourth quarter and year 2025. 

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting slower economic growth than previously estimated

• The downward revision from the advance estimate (1.4%) indicates weaker overall economic activity in late 2025

• Economic growth was supported by increases in consumer spending and private investment, particularly in services and intellectual property products

• Consumer spending growth was driven mainly by services such as healthcare and international travel

• Business investment increased, especially in research and development, equipment, and inventory accumulation

• Government spending declined, largely due to reduced federal expenditures during the partial government shutdown

• The federal government shutdown is estimated to have reduced GDP growth by about 1 percentage point in the fourth quarter

• Exports decreased, contributing negatively to overall GDP growth

• For the full year 2025, real GDP increased 2.2%, slower than the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024

• Inflation measures showed moderate increases, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.6% for the year

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026, March 13). Gross domestic product (second estimate), fourth quarter and year 2025. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025

Occupations of Trust and Lack Trust-Gallup Poll

(Illustrative Only)

A man by himself.
A lone voice
Rejecting lobby money.

Leo is a grandparent.
He feels the best way
to serve his country
and his grandchildren is
to vote his conscious
and support the
generational to
generational principles
he and his parents
struggled for.
This country is
for the The People and
no one else. 
He leans toward
independents who insert
some vote tipping ability
to reduce the dangers
of partisanship.

He is part of the hypothetical
Feather Party.

*The hypothetical
Feather Party doesn't exist
at this time and
 is a philosophical
discussion of a stronger third
party made of independents,
who vote anyway they
want as long as they follow
an agreed upon decision making 
matrix. They do not work
with special interests, 
cap donations, protect the Bill
of Rights
(freedom of religion and speech
and human rights)
and focus on the needs of
the next generation. They
seek to 
vote their conscious and 
there is no pressure to vote
or say what donors want.
Science, logic, ethics,
and individual freedoms
are their method. It
is for discussion purposes
so one can accept, reject
or propose alternative
ideas.

An examination of the most recent Gallup poll provides a useful snapshot of how Americans perceive trust across various occupations. Overall, healthcare professionals—particularly nurses and physicians—continue to rank highly in public trust. Military veterans are also widely respected, likely due to their service and actualized commitment to the nation’s core values. Many times they will speak up when they have concerns despite sometimes being mistreated. 

Educators are generally viewed positively, reflecting their important role in shaping communities and future generations. In contrast, police officers tend to fall closer to the middle of the rankings (Fire fighters have been high but it doesn't appear on this poll). Public trust in law enforcement may be strengthened through consistent accountability measures that address misconduct while avoiding undue politicization. At the same time, it is important to recognize and support the many officers who serve with professionalism and integrity. Efforts to enhance recruitment and promote diversity within the profession may further contribute to increased public confidence.

Clergy, by comparison, rank lower in trust. This trend may reflect perceptions that credibility is strongest when leadership remains grounded in clear, consistent, and principled messaging, and weaker when communication becomes fragmented or perceived as divisive. While both religious and secular philosophical traditions have historically emphasized prosocial values such as peace and cooperation, deviations from these principles may contribute to diminished trust. 

At the lower end of the spectrum, members of Congress and telemarketers are among the least trusted occupations. This may be attributed to a perception that communication within these roles is often driven by persuasion, partisanship, wealthy PAC donors, lobbiests, or special interests rather than broadly shared societal values (If you have to lobby it, it could mean it may not be shared widely as a value system). It is important to manage for the average person and the generational to generational values. (Also, telemarkers should not have US numbers if they are not from the US and you can't trace them back. Those who violate the "Do not call list" should pay large fines and do jail time if necessary. People who answer the phone are domestic and they hang up on you when you ask questions. Those things should be investigated and not ignored. Just about everyone has to deal with this silliness and lack of enforcement.)

At times foundational principles—such as freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and the pursuit of balanced, strategic decision-making—may be perceived as secondary to partisan considerations, a pattern observable across the political spectrum. Moving forward, enhancing trust across institutions can be enhanced by fostering more balanced, evidence-based, and solutions-oriented discourse. Emphasizing shared goals and common interests, rather than entrenched narratives, may help rebuild confidence and promote more effective and collaborative societal outcomes.

The article,

Nurses continue to lead in honesty and ethics ratings

Gallup. (2026, January 12)

• Nurses rank as the most trusted profession in the U.S., with 75% of Americans rating their honesty and ethics as “high” or “very high.”

• This marks more than two decades at the top of Gallup’s annual honesty and ethics poll, with nurses leading every year since 1999 except one (2001).

• Other highly rated professions include medical doctors (57%) and pharmacists (53%), though both trail nurses significantly.

• Military veterans were also among the top-rated professions in the most recent survey, ranking just behind nurses.

• The least trusted professions include members of Congress, telemarketers, and car salespeople, all receiving very low ratings.

• Trust in most professions has declined from pandemic-era highs, with many occupations now near historic lows in perceived ethics.

• Nurses’ current rating is lower than their peak during COVID-19 but remains far higher than all other professions.

• Overall, healthcare professions continue to dominate the top of trust rankings, even amid a broader decline in public confidence across occupations.

Gallup. (2026, January 12). Nurses continue to lead in honesty and ethics ratings. https://news.gallup.com/poll/700736/nurses-continue-lead-honesty-ethics-ratings.aspx

What Firefighters Want in 2026 Survey

Surveys, research, and opinion polls that gather input from firefighters can play an important role in improving training and overall preparedness. The survey below is one example, and if you are a full-time, part-time, or volunteer firefighter, you may want to consider մասնակցating. The information collected is used to support improvements across the fire service.

This process functions as a feedback loop: as more data is collected, gaps in training, resources, and support become clearer. With that understanding, departments and organizations can begin addressing those gaps more effectively. The results also contribute to broader state-of-the-industry reports, helping expand knowledge about firefighting across the United States and Canada.

P.S. if you are interested in donating to a fire department in the Upper Peninsula send me a message to the right. 

FireRescue1 launches What Firefighters Want in 2026 survey.

• What Firefighters Want in 2026 survey was launched by FireRescue1 as part of its annual state-of-the-industry research effort focused on the fire service.

• The 2026 survey specifically centers on firefighter training, emphasizing it as a foundational element of professional performance and preparedness.

• The survey aims to assess how often firefighters train and whether that training is realistic, relevant, and supported by leadership.

• Findings will be used to identify gaps, highlight best practices, and encourage improvements in how departments prepare firefighters.

• Results will contribute to FireRescue1’s 2026 state-of-the-industry report, expected to be published in August 2026 with expert analysis.

• The survey includes participants from across the fire service (career, volunteer, combination, and all ranks) in the United States and Canada.

• The project is supported by organizations such as the International Public Safety Data Institute (IPSDI) and the International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC).

Take the Firefighter Survey

FireRescue1 Staff. (2026, March 2). FireRescue1 launches What Firefighters Want in 2026 survey. FireRescue1. https://www.firerescue1.com/firefighter-training/firerescue1-launches-what-firefighters-want-in-2026-survey