Federal Reserve Indicates Stable but Rising Inflation Pressure: Target Interest Stays 3.5% to 3.75% (Interest on Nuts)

(Illustrative Only)
Somewhere in
a large oak tree.
Because Hiawatha
National Forest
and Gwinn State Forest
area are protected
areas the chipmunks have
become sophisticated in
financial nut markets.
They discuss lending,
interest rates, the
nutty economy, so on 
and so forth. Their 
decisions impact the rest
of chipmunk society in
the forest.
(Sorry trying to
be inventive here.
It got a little nutty. 🙃)

Reading the Federal Open Market Committee minutes provides a useful snapshot of the current economic environment and the Federal Reserve’s thinking on monetary policy. Inflation remains a key concern, although it has eased somewhat, while the Fed has maintained its target interest-rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Officials also noted that the labor market remains relatively stable and that the economy continues to expand.

At the same time, policymakers recognize potential risks and the need for additional economic data before making further decisions. The importance of the minutes extends beyond the Federal Reserve itself. Banks, economists, investors and businesses closely follow the committee’s discussions and often adjust their expectations and decisions accordingly. For anyone trying to understand broader market conditions, the minutes offer valuable insight into the economic indicators policymakers are watching and the factors that could shape future decisions.

Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2021-2027)

Federal Reserve Signals Caution on Inflation as Three Officials Favor Rate Hike

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9–3 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, while three members favored a 25-basis-point increase.
• Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective. May PCE inflation was 4.1%, while core PCE inflation was 3.4%; staff estimated that inflation eased somewhat in June.
• Labor markets were viewed as relatively stable, with unemployment at 4.2% in June. Economic activity continued to expand, supported by consumer spending and strong AI-related business investment.
• Fed officials remained concerned about upside inflation risks from tariffs, energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and potentially stronger-than-expected demand associated with AI investment. Most expected inflation to decline gradually, but uncertainty remained substantial.
• The minutes suggest that future policy will depend heavily on incoming inflation and employment data. Several officials indicated that additional tightening could be necessary if inflation fails to move lower, making the September meeting particularly important for markets.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, July 29). Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm

A Few Differences Between Rich and Poor-It Is More Than Hard Work!

As we consider how to expand opportunities for the middle class, it is important to recognize that wealth is influenced by more than hard work alone. Coming from a small-business, blue-collar and middleclass background, I have had the opportunity to know people across a wide range of economic circumstances. A few wealthy and a few not so much. A few with nothing. Financial knowledge often plays an important role, particularly when people learn about money, investing, and entrepreneurship at a young age.

Financial knowledge at a young age is important.

(Illustrative Only)

People are people 
no matter their station in
life. The rich
and poor are very 
much the same but
focused on different needs. 

As long as no one
looks at his old
shoes he fits
right in. When
he hears 15 big ones for
a vacation he thinks
$15.
So when he says
he spent $10 big
ones for a watch
online they are thinking
two different things.
Because with
his store credit
he saved $2 big ones
and bought a slurpy
with the rest.

Hard work remains essential, but working hard does not automatically create wealth. Many middle-class families work extremely hard and earn good incomes, yet remain dependent on a set hourly rate. Greater wealth often comes when people are able to scale their skills through business ownership, entrepreneurship, or senior leadership positions. That requires taking risks, learning from failure, and understanding how to use time and resources effectively.

Scalability of knowledge or effort is important.

Many are going to fail, some a few times, and some will have success, and some will lose much. Can you take the risk for your business idea?

Success requires a level of risk.

Opportunity and access to capital also matter. Wealthier individuals often have advantages through assets, credit, and social networks that make it easier to obtain financing and pursue business opportunities. However, people without those advantages can still build businesses by researching opportunities, seeking grants or loans, starting small, and gradually scaling.

Access and use of capital is important.

There is also a social dimension to wealth. Economic and professional networks can provide information, relationships, and opportunities that are not always available to everyone. Bridging those gaps requires learning how to communicate across different social and economic environments.

Learn to appreciate and connect with people.

Ultimately, wealth is shaped by a combination of circumstances, opportunity, financial knowledge, and hard work. Hard work can open doors, but knowing how to use your time, resources, and opportunities effectively is what can help turn that effort into long-term economic mobility. This is a discussion so some we may agree or disagree with. It is ok. We learn from opinions and knowledge sharing.

Why Americans Believe Circumstances Influence Wealth and Poverty

• A 2020 Pew Research Center survey found that 65% of Americans believe people become rich primarily because they have had more advantages in life, compared with 33% who attribute wealth mainly to working harder.
• Views about poverty were even stronger: 71% said people are poor because they have faced more obstacles in life, while only 26% attributed poverty primarily to a lack of hard work.
• Political differences were significant. Democrats were much more likely to emphasize advantages and obstacles, while Republicans were more divided, with 53% attributing wealth primarily to hard work and 45% to advantages.
• Americans' views had shifted since 2018, with the share attributing wealth to advantages increasing by 13 percentage points and the share emphasizing hard work declining by 12 points.
• The study also examined attitudes toward billionaires. Overall, 58% said having billionaires was neither good nor bad, while 23% viewed billionaires negatively and 19% positively; younger adults were more likely to have negative views.

Pew Research Center. (2020, March 2). Most Americans point to circumstances, not work ethic, for why people are rich or poor. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/03/02/most-americans-point-to-circumstances-not-work-ethic-as-reasons-people-are-rich-or-poor/

Court performance and Attitudes Toward Fighting Corruption (Allegory of the Clan)

Throughout history, religious and secular philosophers have emphasized fairness, cooperation, and respect for others. These principles have helped shape modern societies and systems of government. Yet institutions, like people, are imperfect, and misconduct can occur even when most individuals are acting responsibly.

(Illustrative Only)

Sam knows if 
we lose the right
to report corruption, 
we are judged on race
or religion, or partisanship
becomes more important
than our oaths and
shared sacrafices, then what
we could have been might 
slip through our 
fingers. Futures lost.

He uses the shield
of justice to help
future victims
and undermine
the victim blamming
tools of
hate and corruption.

The challenge is not to assume that everyone is corrupt—or that everyone is acting properly. Strong institutions recognize that misconduct can happen and establish checks and balances to identify and correct it. When oversight is weak, corruption, discrimination, and abuse can become harder to stop.

The Allegory of the Clan was presented as a hypothetical thought experiment examining what can happen when retaliation, prejudice, financial incentives, group loyalty, and weak oversight intersect. In the scenario, most officials were good people, but a small group of extremists and corrupt officials was able to create significant harm because institutional safeguards failed. More victims were created from years of normalized misbehaviors (Not representing the vast majority who may be honorable societal public servants.)

The hypothetical scenario included retaliation against whistleblowers, threats to life of those who reported wrongdoing, intimidation, false investigations, efforts to damage reputations, damaging kids and favorable treatment for individuals involved in misconduct. It also explored situations in which people were targeted because they were viewed as members of an “out-group,” including differences in race or religion. When such behavior is repeatedly ignored, the problem can move beyond individual misconduct and become a broader institutional failure involving civil rights, human rights, and the misuse of public resources.

The purpose of the allegory is not to declare a predetermined right or wrong answer. It is a learning exercise designed to distinguish between helpful and unhelpful institutional responses. The central question is what happens to public trust when institutional actors fail to correct misconduct and/or openly embrace it as a tool.

Institutions must continually examine themselves, strengthen accountability, and adapt to changing expectations. When systems become too rigid or resistant to change, they can become disconnected from society, particularly from younger generations. Continuous improvement, effective checks and balances, and meaningful accountability are essential to maintaining public confidence.

*The Allegory of the clan is a hypothetical philosophical thought experiment for learning purposes. Come to any conclusion you desire as there is no right or wrong answer but only helpful and unhelpful ones. Take with a grain of salt. 

Court Performance and Citizen Attitudes Toward Fighting Corruption

• Court performance can influence how citizens view corruption and government efforts to combat it. The study argues that courts can send credible signals about their commitment to fighting corruption through their actions.
• The researchers focus on two important dimensions of court performance: efficiency and impartiality. Their findings indicate that impartiality is particularly important because it demonstrates that courts can operate independently and fairly, even when powerful individuals are involved.
• The study identifies an institutional channel through which effective and impartial courts can increase citizens' trust in the judiciary and their support for government spending on anti-corruption efforts.
• The researchers found less evidence that court performance directly increases citizens' personal willingness to oppose bribery or their belief that they can personally make a difference in fighting corruption. This suggests that institutional attitudes may be easier to change than individual behavior.
• Overall, the study demonstrates that courts can influence the fight against corruption beyond simply punishing corrupt behavior. When courts demonstrate impartiality, particularly in cases involving high-ranking officials, they can strengthen institutional trust and public support for broader anti-corruption policies.

Barbabela, L., Pellicer, M., & Wegner, E. (2022). Court performance and citizen attitudes toward fighting corruption. Governance, 35(3), 717–735. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12604

The Benefits of Swimming in Open Water and the Ocean

Open water swimming is becoming an increasingly popular way to combine exercise, outdoor recreation, and exploration. While the activity offers several health and wellness benefits, swimmers should also understand the potential risks and environmental responsibilities that come with swimming in natural waters.

(Illustrative Only)
A Yellowtail.
If only it was this clear. :)

Recently, I have been getting more involved in spearfishing in Michigan. Likewise I occassionally swim the ocean in California. I have always enjoyed fishing, although I certainly would not consider myself the world's greatest fisherman. I have even started reading a book about fishing lures, so we will see if that improves my skills! What I particularly enjoy about open water activities is the opportunity to combine several interests at once.

When I swim in open water, I put on my flippers, wet suit, take my camera, and explore what I can find beneath the surface. Photography gives me another reason to observe the environment and discover things I might otherwise miss. At the same time, swimming provides an excellent cardiovascular workout and helps develop overall muscle strength and tone. It also engages stabilizer muscles that may not receive as much attention during other forms of exercise.

The benefits extend beyond physical fitness. Spending time in nature has long been associated with improved mood and mental well-being. Open water swimming provides an opportunity to exercise while also getting outside, experiencing nature, and exploring an environment that is very different from a traditional gym.

Research supports many of these perceived benefits while also recognizing that open water swimming comes with certain risks. One important consideration is the potential impact on the environment. Swimmers need to understand the conditions and regulations of the area where they swim and make an effort to minimize their environmental impact. Being mindful of wildlife, vegetation, water quality, and other swimmers helps ensure that these natural environments remain healthy and accessible.

You can't really see anything in the but likely a Yellow Tail Ocean Perch/Rockfish. 

For me, open water swimming is more than just exercise. It combines fitness, nature, exploration, photography, and recreation into one activity. As a fitness instructor, yoga instructor, and someone who enjoys a variety of outdoor activities, I appreciate the opportunity to help others discover ways to stay active and connected with the outdoors.

If you would like a little virtual help with fitness, movement, or developing an active lifestyle, send me a message to the right.

Open Water Swimming, Health, Wellbeing, and Environmental Impacts

• The study examined the perceived health, wellbeing, and environmental benefits and risks of open water swimming using a national online survey of 717 Scottish swimmers.
• Mental wellbeing was identified as the most important perceived benefit by participants in nearly every age group, while swimmers over age 65 placed greater emphasis on physical health benefits.
• The findings suggest that open water swimming provides opportunities for physical activity, connection with nature, social interaction, and improved mental wellbeing.
• Lake swimmers expressed greater concern about potential environmental damage associated with the increasing popularity of open water swimming than participants who primarily swam in rivers or the sea.
• Overall, participants viewed the environmental risks as relatively limited, and the researchers concluded that understanding both benefits and risks can help develop safer, healthier, and more sustainable opportunities for outdoor recreation.

Oliver, D. M., McDougall, C. W., Robertson, T., Grant, B., Hanley, N., & Quilliam, R. S. (2023). Self-reported benefits and risks of open water swimming to health, wellbeing and the environment: Cross-sectional evidence from a survey of Scottish swimmers. PLOS ONE, 18(8), e0290834. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290834

The hypothetical Feather Party Discusses Two Forms of Capitalism and Socialism

If you sort of watch the news lately, you can see that there has been increasing interest in socialism as a concept.. What we're doing here is discussing these issues through a hypothetical Feather Party, which is essentially a learning party designed for illustrative purposes. Rejecting it is absolutely is ok because it doesn't exist. It is built around independent candidates who use certain decision matrix to try to create as much connection with the average person as possible while reducing some of the traditional vetting, money influence, and other barriers. The goal is to introduce a wider variety of ideas, thoughts, and opinions into the discussion. Having new perspectives within any management or decision-making group can be valuable because it encourages new ways of thinking and that can lead to innovation and development (Innovation can be social as well.).

There has also been growing interest in discussing third parties. However, this discussion is not about advocating for any particular party—or for or against parties in general. Instead, it's about considering what the potential impacts of different political and economic systems might be. How might a third party reduce/increase partisanship, improving/hinder decision making around core values, and create greater/lower economic and social outcomes.

Let's say, hypothetically, that there are three systems that a Western society might consider. There are actually many more, but for purposes of discussion, let's look at capitalism, socialism, and different forms of capitalism within that broader spectrum. There are an increasing number socialist candidates winning primaries so the discussion is an important one. 

Capitalism isn't simply one thing. There are many interpretations of what capitalism means, just as there are many interpretations of socialism. These systems can be viewed along a continuum, ranging from relatively free markets to more managed or regulated markets. Each approach has potential benefits and drawbacks, which is one reason societies make different choices about how they structure their economies.

When we discuss concentrated capitalism, we're talking about a system in which wealth and economic power become increasingly concentrated among fewer people or organizations. Broad-based capitalism, by contrast, refers to the idea that wealth and economic opportunity are generated and circulated more broadly throughout the population while still relying primarily on free-market principles.

So, there's no need to establish a simple right-or-wrong answer here. Each person is entitled to their own opinion as long as they reflected on it, and the alternatives, and made a conscious decision. Instead, let's use the hypothetical Feather Party to ask: Which approaches might work well, under what circumstances, and what potential consequences could they have?

We can consider how different systems might affect entrepreneurship, long-term competitiveness, economic opportunity, innovation, and other aspects of society. Ultimately, those are questions for you to think about and evaluate based on your own perspective.

For reference I asked AI, "What is broad-based capitalism versus concentrated capitalism and socialism?" I didn't expect it to come up with such a clear explanation of broad-based capitalism, but it did. So it's interesting to look at these concepts side by side. (With AI make sure you look outside of it to find other resources because you can get mislead by the algorithmic process. It has to use programing so that programming is limited. Generative AI might be different. I'm not the expert. However one might tweak teh explanation by AI to be more of a balanced economy.)

Ultimately, this is about increasing awareness and encouraging thoughtful consideration so that you can better define what you believe. You can support any political party, no party, or a third party. That's entirely up to you. The purpose here is simply to encourage us to concentrate on the ideas and think critically about their potential effects.

There isn't necessarily a single right or wrong answer. There are choices that may be more helpful or less helpful depending on the objectives, circumstances, and perspectives involved. That's why, at the end of an allegory or thought experiment, we often use the phrase: There is no right or wrong answer; there are only helpful and unhelpful ones. What is considered helpful or unhelpful ultimately depends on your perspective and the outcomes you value.

*The hypothetical Feather Party is a learning discussion on what a third party of loosely affiliated independents might look like. There is no right or wrong opinion but only helpful and unhelpful ones. Take with a grain of salt. 

What AI pulled to the question below.....

Concentrated Capitalism

Private power: Wealth and business ownership rest in the hands of a small group of people or large corporations.
Focus: Maximizing profit, market competition, and fast economic growth.
Result: High potential for wealth gaps and extreme income inequality. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Broad-Based Capitalism

Shared power: Ownership of stock, property, and businesses is spread out across a large portion of the population.
Focus: Expanding the middle class so more workers share in the financial gains of the economy.
Result: More widespread financial security while keeping the core foundations of private enterprise and free markets. [1, 2, 3]

Socialism

Public control: The community or the government owns the major means of production (like factories, land, and large systems).
Focus: Meeting basic human needs and creating economic equality rather than chasing private profit.
Result: Heavy public services and reduced market competition, funded often through higher taxes. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]

U.S. Import and Export Prices-July 2026 (Todd Tries to Raise the Value of His Widgets)

 You can see that import and export prices are pretty mixed. Petroleum is cheaper this month, although prices are still higher than they were a year ago. That is a little bit of positive news and provides some relief at the pump, which can have a broader impact on economic development because energy is a major input factor.

(Illustrative Only)

Todd knows that 
if he can take
lower price resources
and produce high 
value products locally
he can increase 
local wealth. 

Some lower imput 
prices are beneficial
and some are detrimental
but you have to be strategic
about the type of industries
you want to foster. 

Economic Hubs

Interactivity

Perpetual Sustainable
Develoment

There are also other forms of energy that we could develop domestically, such as solar and hydrogen, although those technologies and industries are still developing. We also have our own petroleum industry, which has additional capacity for development.

From an economic development perspective, cheaper imports of raw materials and supplies that can be converted into higher-value products and then sold in the market would be ideal. Ultimately, it depends on what is being imported and exported, the value of those goods, and the quantities involved.

This data provides only a snapshot of pricing. To understand the broader economic picture, we would also want to examine the ability to create higher-value products throughout the supply chain. That is where the real opportunities for economic development can emerge.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Show Mixed Movement in July 2026

• U.S. import prices decreased 0.4% in July 2026, following a 0.3% decline in June. The decline was primarily driven by lower fuel prices.
• Import fuel prices fell 7.2% in July, with petroleum and petroleum product prices declining 7.5%. However, import fuel prices remained 25.2% higher than a year earlier.
• Nonfuel import prices increased 0.4% in July and were 4.5% higher than a year earlier, indicating continued cost pressures for imported goods despite lower energy prices.
• U.S. export prices declined 1.3% in July after falling 0.7% in June. Despite the monthly decline, export prices were 8.2% higher than they were one year earlier.
• The data show that international price pressures remain significant. Import prices from China increased 0.8% in July, while export prices to Japan increased 0.2% and were up 10.4% over the previous year.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, August 18). U.S. import and export price indexes—July 2026. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm

US Industrial Production Moderate but Growing July 2026 (A Good Entrepreneurial Idea and the Tommyknockers)

 Manufacturing is the ability of a country to develop and foster economic growth through its manufacturing sector. Ideas are invented and products are developed, often through significant research and development. Other times, innovation can happen much more simply. Someone might be working in their kitchen, experimenting with something, and suddenly come up with a great idea. That is part of how innovation works.

(Illustrative Only)

Tovo heads to
start his mining
robot business
where he creates prototypes
on mainstreet. He figured
that if there are some
restrictions on foreign 
robots he could 
build them and scale
locally at the industrial
center using many
locally sourced materials.
On US2 

He is not neglectful
of giving back
to the Tommnyknockers.
(Can you see them in the woods?)
😟😏

As a side note: I should
try and create stories within
stories to sort of increase
cognitive reach.

The next challenge is taking that idea and scaling it. This is where manufacturing becomes important. Once a product has been developed and tested, the country needs the capacity to manufacture it efficiently and at scale. Having that manufacturing capacity is an important component of economic development.

The current manufacturing report is not bad. Manufacturing is growing, although not particularly quickly. Business equipment is an especially important area because producing business equipment places a country in the center of supply chains and can create significant economic value.

Capacity utilization has also increased, but it remains below its long-term average. This generally indicates that there is excess manufacturing capacity available. In other words, manufacturers could potentially produce more if there were sufficient demand for their products.

That leads to a broader question: How do we get other countries and customers to purchase our products? Cost and manufacturing capacity are only part of the equation. Geopolitical relationships, international trade policies, product quality, and brand reputation also influence whether customers will buy those products.

Overall, the manufacturing picture appears relatively stable. The issue is not necessarily whether we have the capacity to manufacture products. The larger challenge is whether we can manufacture them competitively and develop new customers and markets willing to buy them.

U.S. Industrial Production Shows Continued Moderate Growth

• U.S. industrial production increased 0.2% in July 2026, following a 0.3% increase in June. Total industrial production was 1.1% higher than in July 2025.
• Manufacturing production also increased 0.2% in July. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts performed somewhat better, increasing 0.4%.
• Business equipment production was a strong area of growth, rising 0.8% in July and 6.6% over the previous year, suggesting continued investment in productive capacity.
• Capacity utilization edged up to 76.3% for total industry and 76.0% for manufacturing. However, both remained below their long-run averages, indicating that substantial productive capacity remains available.
• The results present a mixed but generally stable manufacturing picture. Durable-goods production increased 0.7%, while nondurable-goods production declined 0.4%; mining and utilities also posted modest increases.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, August 18). Industrial production and capacity utilization—G.17. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm