Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates to 3.75% to 4% (Squirrels and Chipmonks Set Nut Rates)

 Steady growth and geopolitical risks shape the Federal Reserve's latest decision.

HIAWATHA NATIONAL FOREST, UP🙃-The Federal Reserve has decided to raise interest rates after reviewing the overall economy. Reviewing reports, like many presented in this blog, offer a broad overview of the economic landscape. The Federal Open Market Committee looks at many reports and metrics and come to a conclusion to make a decision. In this case they believe the economy is strong.

(One might wonder whether following the economic disruptions of COVID-19, technological advancements and the expansion of remote work contributed to significant changes in business and employment. Over time, these fluctuations have gradually settled into a more normalized pattern of economic growth. Theorizing🤔)

(Illustrative Only)
Squirrels and Chipmonks
set the forest interest nut
rate during their FOMC 
meeting. It impacts
the costs throughout 
the forest.
The nutty lenders are
all watching. 
Hiawatha Map
where the squirrels live.🙃🌲

The Federal Reserve's rate increase is intended to help manage inflation and prevent excessive economic pressure. While the economy appears to be functioning relatively well, the data continue to reveal challenges that could become more significant in the future.

Geopolitical developments remain a major risk for businesses and the broader economy. Continued monitoring of economic reports, inflation, employment, and global developments will be important for understanding the direction of future growth.

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Decision – September 16, 2026

• Interest rates: The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4.00%.

• Economic growth: Economic activity continues to expand, supported by domestic spending, productivity, and capital investment.

• Employment: Job gains have kept pace with workforce growth, while unemployment has changed little.

• Inflation: Inflation remains elevated, with the Federal Reserve maintaining focus on returning inflation to its 2% target.

• Economic uncertainty: Geopolitical developments continue to create uncertainty, despite resilient domestic spending and investment.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, September 16). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm 

US Import and Export Prices Rise in August 2026: Possible Inflationary Breeze

(Illustrative Only)
Let us think
through this....
Let us say these two
grow produce from their
 local farm
and are exporting
it regionally.
They need
access to different
transportation
infrastructure to
move their
products as cheap 
as possible. Delta County
has connecting highways
to different areas of the 
UP, is near WI,
rail lines, airport,
deep sea port,
data infrastructure,
etc. 

How might a 
small city that
has these things 
also some opportunities?
Could that
attract export
oriented start-ups,
tourism ships, 
resource processeing,
manufacturing, etc
 

Import and export prices moved higher in August 2026, suggesting that price pressures remain present across international trade.

Import prices increased 0.7% in August after declining slightly in July. Export prices also increased, rising 0.6% after falling the previous month.

The increases are notable because they are not being driven solely by fuel prices. Broader price increases across imported and exported goods could indicate that inflationary pressures are coming from a wider range of products and inputs (or even a different source that has wide impact like fuel.).

For consumers and businesses, the takeaway is fairly simple: if these trends continue, some products could become more expensive in the months ahead. However, one month of increases does not establish a long-term trend, so the next several months will provide a better indication of where prices are headed.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Rise in August 2026

• U.S. import prices increased 0.7% in August 2026 after declining 0.3% in July. Over the past year, import prices rose 7.0%, the largest 12-month increase since August 2022. 
• Nonfuel import prices increased 0.8% in August and were up 5.5% from August 2025, reflecting higher prices for industrial materials, capital goods, and consumer goods. 
• Fuel import prices edged down 0.1% in August, although fuel prices remained 26.8% higher than a year earlier. Import natural gas prices increased 102.6% over the same period. 
• U.S. export prices increased 0.6% in August following a 1.4% decline in July. Export prices were 8.6% higher than a year earlier, with both agricultural and nonagricultural exports recording annual increases. 
• The data indicate continued price pressure in international trade, with higher import costs potentially affecting businesses that rely on foreign inputs while higher export prices can influence the revenues and competitiveness of U.S. exporters. 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, September 16). U.S. import and export price indexes—August 2026. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm 

August Monthly Retail Sales Results: U.S. Census Bureau: Retail Sales Show Signs of Economic Resilience

Consumer spending remains active as August sales rise 1.2% from July and 6% year-over-year.

ESCANABA (Sorry playing with this. 🙈) — August retail sales increased, offering a modestly positive signal for the U.S. economy as consumers continued to spend despite mixed economic conditions.

(Illustrative Only)
Jack bought a little 
more stuff last month.
It is harvest season
in the UP

The latest figures from the U.S. Census Bureau show retail and food service sales rising 1.2% from July 2026 and 6% compared with August 2025. The results suggest that consumer demand remains active, an important consideration in an economy where consumer spending accounts for a substantial share of economic activity.

Continued consumer spending can support business revenues and contribute to economic growth. However, the figures are not adjusted for inflation, meaning higher sales values do not necessarily translate into equivalent increases in the volume of goods and services purchased.

While other economic indicators provide a mixed picture, the retail sales report offers another data point suggesting modest economic resilience. Businesses, policymakers, and researchers will continue to monitor whether consumer demand remains sustainable in the months ahead.

Monthly Retail Sales Results: U.S. Census Bureau

• August 2026 retail and food service sales reached $773.9 billion, according to the Census Bureau's advance estimate. This represents a 1.2% increase from July 2026.

• Retail and food service sales increased 6.0% compared with August 2025, indicating higher reported sales activity over the year.

• Sales for the June–August 2026 period were 6.0% higher than during the same period in 2025, suggesting continued growth in retail and food service activity.

• The July 2026 monthly sales change was revised from a 0.6% decline to a 0.5% decline. Revisions demonstrate why economic data should be evaluated as updated estimates become available.

• The August sales figures are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but are not adjusted for price changes. Therefore, the increase in sales reflects a combination of changes in sales volume and prices, rather than necessarily representing real growth in the quantity of goods and services purchased.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2026, September 16). Advance monthly sales for retail and food services: August 2026. https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html 

Chocolate, Oatmeal, Protein Bread at the Cabin

There are cooks that follow recipes and there are cooks that are creative. Cooking comes from your personality. I tend to be somewhere in the second group. I like to cook and prepare as many of my meals as I can. I do not cook every meal—sometimes I get busy, and sometimes the couch wins—but I enjoy trying new things and learning along the way. One thing I have discovered is that once you understand the basics of cooking, you can start adapting recipes and creating your own variations.

(Illustrative Only)
Probably better
for you then just
plain cookies.

Cooking at home has many advantages. You know where your food comes from, what ingredients are being used, and you can tailor meals to your own tastes. In many cases, home cooking can also support better health and energy because you have greater control over what you are eating. It can be more cost-effective, too. Fresh fruits and vegetables are not always cheap, but overall, preparing meals at home can cost considerably less than eating out regularly. The first meal may seem expensive because you have to buy all the ingredients, but if you keep cooking, those ingredients get spread across multiple meals.

There is also something to be said for knowing what is actually in your food. Some highly processed foods can be inexpensive and convenient, but cooking at home gives you more control over the ingredients. And you do not have to become a full-time chef. You might cook most of your meal at home and still go out occasionally for appetizers, dessert, or just because somebody else is doing the dishes.

A picture of
chocolate, 
oatmeal, protein
bread.

The item shown below is a protein chocolate oatmeal-style protein bread that I created without following a recipe. In other words, I was basically conducting a highly scientific kitchen experiment—with no laboratory, no research grant, and questionable measurements. A recipe combining protein oats, flour, cinnamon, a little salt, a little protein powder, brown sugar, regular sugar, maple syrup, baking powder, oil, and water to make a batter. I poured it into a pan and baked it until the edges started turning brown.

It turned out surprisingly well. I also made my own glaze using powdered sugar and vanilla and put that over the top. The more you cook, the more you learn, and I learned something from this batch: I have a tendency to slightly overcook bread. It was perfectly edible, but I like a little more moisture in the center. The one I cooked was perfect or most but for me next time, I will probably take it out a few minutes earlier and let the residual heat finish the job.

That is really what I enjoy about cooking. It is part science, part art, and occasionally part “let's see what happens.” You learn the basic recipes and techniques, but eventually you start developing a feel for things—how long something needs to cook, when it looks right, and when you should probably stop messing with it.

This is also a form of camp cooking. I do this in a log cabin with most of the basic amenities, but cooking in a cabin, on a boat, or in other outdoor settings requires its own skills. You learn to improvise, work with what you have, and sometimes create a pretty good meal without having every kitchen gadget known to humanity. And that is part of the fun.

I'm a certfied fitness trainer and yoga instructor so if you need a little virtual help send me a message to the right. 

September 2026 Empire State Manufacturing Survey-Cautious Optimism

The September 2026 Empire State Manufacturing Survey points to modest growth in New York’s manufacturing sector, with new orders edging higher as businesses continue to navigate a challenging economic environment.

Employment also increased, providing a positive sign for the sector and raising an interesting question about how much of the broader employment gains are being driven by manufacturing. At the same time, supply-chain problems remain a concern, with manufacturers continuing to face disruptions and higher costs.

Inflationary pressure has also not disappeared. Businesses continue to report elevated input costs and higher prices, suggesting that inflation remains an issue for manufacturers and consumers alike.

Despite these challenges, manufacturers remain generally optimistic about future business conditions. That optimism may encourage companies to continue making investments and strategic decisions, even as they weigh uncertainty, changing costs and ongoing supply-chain risks.

For now, the picture is one of modest growth accompanied by continued economic variability—a market in which businesses have opportunities, but also plenty of risks to watch.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

• The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to measure manufacturing activity and business conditions in New York State.
• The survey asks manufacturers about changes in indicators such as new orders, shipments, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, and business conditions compared with the previous month.
• The survey also asks businesses about their expectations for these indicators approximately six months into the future, providing information about business sentiment and expected economic activity.
• The survey is sent to about 200 manufacturing executives, generally presidents or CEOs, with roughly 100 responses received each month. Respondents represent a broad range of manufacturing industries across New York State.
• The September 2026 survey showed modest manufacturing growth, with the general business conditions index at 7.6. Employment increased, the average workweek rose, and both input and selling-price increases accelerated, while firms remained generally optimistic about future activity.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2026). Empire State Manufacturing Survey. https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview

What is Linear Regression and Why You Should Understand it Basics in Business

Linear regression is a commonly used statistical model for examining relationships and making predictions in areas such as business, economics, and research. Essentially, it identifies a line that provides the best fit for a set of data by minimizing the squared differences between observed data points and the regression line.

The model helps researchers examine the relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable. More complex regression models can include multiple independent variables, allowing researchers to examine several factors at the same time.

A basic understanding of statistics is important because many research studies and business analyses rely on statistical models. You do not necessarily need to be a statistics expert unless you are conducting research or working in a highly technical field. However, understanding the basics helps you evaluate what the numbers actually tell you—and what they do not.

People frequently cite research and try and apply the findings but may not have a solid relationship between not only what the variables are but how they relate. Statistics therefore provides a formal way to evaluate, compare, and understand relationships among different independent and dependent variables. It puts teeth to conjecture.

Linear Regression

• Linear regression is a statistical method for estimating the relationship between variables by fitting a straight line to observed data.
• The basic model is expressed as y = a + bx, where y is the dependent variable, x is the independent variable, b represents the slope, and a is the y-intercept.
• Simple linear regression examines one independent variable and one dependent variable, while multiple linear regression uses more than one independent variable.
• The least-squares method identifies the line that provides the best fit by minimizing the squared differences between observed data points and the regression line.
• Linear regression can be used for prediction and to examine relationships in areas such as economics, psychology, business, and the natural sciences. However, the model represents an estimate rather than a perfect description of reality.

Tantawi, R. (2021). Linear regression. EBSCO Research Starters. https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/social-sciences-and-humanities/linear-regression

Escanaba's New Downtown: Local Assets by Fostering Community and the Economy

 Recently, I stopped by one of the little social clubs I visit and took a look at this beautiful downtown out the front door.

This downtown has parallel parking, bike lanes, clean sidewalks, and attractive lamp posts. Look at these buildings. There is room for investment.

The downtown is poised for growth.

Recently, this town has been coming back through the revitalization of the downtown and the area in general. It was a little sleepy but has become a hot spot. It wasn't bad before; it just needed more new businesses, and some new businesses are now moving in. There has also been signifiant investment in the area from Billerud and other companies.

There is a growing sense of community, with activities and events bringing people together. Tourists are coming from all over, and tourism is increasing. The marina has races and sailboats. There are art events, Players de Noc, ice races in the winter, fishing during the summer, and nice beaches with lifeguards.

(I like to think of different sectors working together to create an organic cluster. i.e. metal stamping, wood products, infrastructure-shipping, tourism, start-up, etc. and how they work together.)

There is a lot going on in this town. From anchor businesses, to infrastructure upgrades, to an emerging entrepreneurial smart city feel. 

Now we have a beautiful, revitalized downtown that is ready for investment. There are still a few vacant buildings, but if you have a really good idea, I suggest you call the city with some investment ideas. City of Escanaba (City of Gladstone  is next to Escanaba)

If you have the capacity to invest, you can become part of the continued growth of this wonderful community filled with wonderful people.

We can show the world that we can build something new.

Escanaba's New Downtown

How Small Towns and Cities Can Use Local Assets to Rebuild Their Economies: Lessons from Successful Places

• Small towns and cities can successfully diversify and rebuild their economies by identifying and leveraging local assets, such as historic downtowns, cultural institutions, and natural environments, rather than relying solely on traditional corporate recruitment.

• Sustainable economic development relies heavily on long-range, community-driven planning processes that actively engage residents, local business owners, and regional stakeholders.

• Accessing outside funding—including state or federal grants—and providing local incentives like tax rebates or streamlined development processes helps lower barriers for private investment and business growth.

• Cross-sector collaboration among municipalities, universities, local businesses, and regional organizations allows smaller communities to combine resources and build economic resilience.

• Prioritizing environmental health, smart growth principles, and outdoor recreational assets enhances local quality of life, which in turn helps attract entrepreneurs, talent, businesses, and tourists.

APA Reference: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2015). How small towns and cities can use local assets to rebuild their economies: Lessons from successful places (Publication No. EPA 231-R-15-002). https://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth