Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Economic Crosscurrents: Inflation, AI, and the Road to 2026

Tom isn't really sure about 
which way the economy is going
so he puts a few extra
stockpiles on the side
just in case. 
The Guardian recently published an interesting piece on the economic outlook for 2026. I have to admit, I’m somewhat surprised by the conclusions. A few months ago, I expected the economy to remain sluggish through the New Year—not collapsing, but not particularly strong either. Instead, it appears we’re on a growth trajectory. How stable that growth will be remains uncertain, but for now, the indicators suggest things are holding up reasonably well.

According to the report, inflation is expected to ease, though it will likely remain a concern in the bond market. Unemployment may increase as new technologies are adopted, and there will be continued pressure to accelerate AI development. Job displacement and replacement. All of these factors are still part of a broader, somewhat muddled economic picture, but they are key metrics worth watching closely.

Rapid AI development is a particular concern. While it has the potential to drive growth, it can also create bubbles—especially since many people don’t fully understand the technology yet continue to invest and push its adoption. Progress is difficult, if not impossible, to stop, so we’ll likely have to embrace AI much as we did the internet, accepting that both positive and negative consequences will emerge from the same technology. In the meantime, someone out there is certainly making a great deal of money.

At a personal level, the best approach is to practice sound fiscal judgment: keep your budget in order and be prepared to weather economic shifts. It would also be encouraging to see everyday people—those most affected by policy decisions—have a stronger voice in the decision-making process. They are often the most sensitive to price changes and economic disruptions, and their perspective offers an important lens through which these issues can be understood.

Five charts that explain the global economic outlook for 2026

Sculling Burns Calories and Allows You To Enjoy the Water (Fitness Training)

Omar realizes that
the more he rows the more
the rust falls off. He will
need to hydrate with some coconut
water he brought with him. 
I used to scull and row, and I recently got back into it in San Diego, which has a pretty strong rowing community. I enjoy being on the water while getting my exercise in—there’s something uniquely calming about gliding across the surface and taking in the beauty of the bay. It doesn’t really matter where you’re rowing; what matters is that you’re out there, connected to nature, experiencing the real world long before everything could be replicated in virtual reality.

That said, it actually could be pretty interesting to try ERG rowing with a virtual headset. I’ve never done it, but I imagine it could be a fun and immersive experience. For now I prefer the real stuff. 

Whether you’re rowing indoors or outdoors, you’ll quickly notice how many calories you burn. It’s a highly engaging sport, with roughly 500 or more calories burned in an hour, which is significant. There’s also the benefit of short, intense HIIT-style intervals, where you push through bursts of maximum effort.

The coxswain plays a big role in this process—constantly calling out, pushing you, and demanding that everyone pull their weight. Their ability to spot inefficiencies in stroke technique, arm position, feathering, and overall movement comes from years of experience.

I strongly believe in engaging in a variety of sports so you can use different parts of your body and naturally develop diverse skill sets. I hold both a fitness trainer license and a yoga license, and I’ve participated in many sports throughout my life. If you’re looking for a little guidance or support, feel free to send me a message and we can set something up. 

Monday, December 29, 2025

VA Releases Findings on Vaccines, Heart Disease, and Veteran Homeless Care

The VA has released several interesting findings that highlight ongoing research into respiratory vaccines, potential treatments for heart disease, and healthcare services for homeless veterans. Research aimed at supporting veterans is critically important, as it often leads to new discoveries that can make a real difference in people’s lives. While research is a long and rigorous process, even incremental progress can result in saving or improving hundreds—if not thousands—of lives.

Staying informed about VA news is helpful for veterans and for those who work with or support them. It provides insight into what resources are available and how taxpayer dollars are being used. The three studies referenced below were released by the VA and are available for review if you are interested in their findings.

Thank you, veterans, for your service.

VA Research Wrap Up: New findings on RSV vaccines, heart disease and homelessness

Notes and  Random Thoughts: This is part of a project I am working on with veterans (unpaid because I know its important). I have deep respect for those who are willing to sacrifice for our society. Many people who seek leadership roles—and even some who attain them—have never had to sacrifice or give back in meaningful ways. This lack of lived experience can lead to short-sighted decisions.

Being born with opportunity is not, by itself, a leadership strength. True leadership is often shaped by learning to go without, enduring hardship, and developing empathy through experience. Without having walked in their shoes, it is difficult to truly relate to this population. In many cases, unchecked privilege can actually be a detriment to effective leadership. Veterans often make greater leaders.

A willingness to stand for something greater than oneself is one of the clearest indicators of leadership potential. Veterans embody this quality, and they remain a resource whose skills, perspectives, and leadership capacity have not yet been fully recognized or utilized.

Accountability as a Civic Obligation (The Story of the Clan Thought Experiment)

 Let us examine a learning story on the persistence of corruption and hate, and why these outcomes continue even when they are widely recognized. Numerous studies show that certain environmental and institutional conditions can normalize such behavior—not only within groups, but also among those in decision-making positions. When social contracts and shared civic values are subordinated to self-interest and entrenched “good old boy” networks, accountability weakens. The critical question becomes: what happens when a system loses its ability—or willingness—to correct itself?

Representing the average person
and their belief in something
greater. 
The “story of the clan” serves as a theoretical learning thought experiment framework that illustrates this breakdown. In this scenario, a group targets minorities, individuals and at times good people who expect basic dignity and fairness. Multiple people come forward with complaints, yet most are ignored or deliberately sidelined. When individuals approach the truth too closely, they are often singled out for retaliation and placed on informal lists for future targeting (formal and coordinated informal groups). Vulnerable populations—children, the elderly, sexual assault victims, and those with a record of speaking accurately and consistently—are intentionally harmed. Because of a dehumanizing effect they do not see what they are doing as wrong. 

Within this framework, laws are applied subjectively and arbitrarily, particularly against those labeled as outsiders or "undesirables" by a cool crowd and their associated corrupted officials. In the short term, the impact is clear: victims find they have little to no avenue for redress. Officials caught engaging in misconduct receive preferential treatment; investigations are delayed or blocked, and institutional mechanisms shield them from meaningful consequences (This is in contrast to the vast majority of good officials doing the right thing and turned the tide against corruption and hate. They have an impact on protecting and serving their communities in a positive way). Without the good men and women who challenged some aspects of corruption all would have been lost through hueristic and deeply biased thinking.

There is room for improvement......

The long-term effects are more damaging. Public trust erodes, social concerns deepen, and hostility toward out-groups increases as rhetoric increases (Some research shows that as rhetoric rises so does harm as it is a type of projection. Not of particular concern of those undermining the system). At the same time, awareness grows that reform is necessary—that protections and checks-n-balances must be strengthened so that commitments to social contracts are much more than symbolic gestures. Communities that challenge corruption and hate tend to experience improved social cohesion and economic development, while those that tolerate or protect such behavior often undermine their own stability and growth (You can read history and science and it will generally indicate that corruption and hate often brings low economic performance.).

What, then, should be done when wrongdoing is well known and there is a lack of commitment to social contracts or good and moral use of the law? The answer, however difficult, is persistence. The moral obligation to protect the next, more diverse generation outweighs the convenience of shielding misconduct simply because it is politically or socially tolerated within certain networks (History has shown that open bias in the courts can lead to much bigger problems in the future on a collective level If it matches with other data it is a big concern. It also limits the free exchange of ideas and that limits society's ability to adapt upward.). People who stand up and swear oaths to certain values everyday must believe in those things and not allow them to be watered down (Give honor and praise to those people and officials who walk the talk in values).

In this learning example, decision-makers feel little moral responsibility for the harm caused. The mechanisms for correction are not often used and they seem to be designed as inadequate. They know it is there but feel that the cost would be too high so they fail to correct or put in place meaningful checks-and-balances. Commitments to justice become performative, and loyalty rituals replace accountability. This represents not an accident, but a set of unwritten rules designed to serve some members of society exclusively. Yet the next generation deserves fair treatment, genuine opportunity, and institutions that function a their higest state possible. As more victims come forward neglect of duty and serving the public becomes apparent. 

This thought experiment reminds us that systemic failures do not occur in isolation. Despite pressures to silence victims or normalize the unacceptable, the responsibility remains to build the best society possible: to follow the law (not unwritten clan laws or unexamined application of hate or corruption), to treat others with dignity, and to insist that institutions serve their true purpose—not convenience, personal reward, or internal loyalty, but the people they were created to serve and the future they are meant to protect. Where systems fail people must still believe and do their best to right the wrong and treat all our youth and people and their futures as having value (not just the ones symbolically seen as worthy. ). Great societies are built by commitment and failing to correct is a sign of that lack of commitment and when commitment is lacking trust declines so let us reverse that.

*This is a thought experiment to explore a deep concept so feel free to change around the elements and come to whatever conclusion you desire. 

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Bankruptcy is Up: What is the cause? (A Cluster Seed Idea)

A number of local business
owners meet concerned about costs
decide that there are many shared
expenses and supplies among
them so they discuss
buying in bulk, sharing some services,
creating an area export brand, 
enhancing local skills they
can all use,
and save the costs by collaborating
on what they all need.

They figure if they can successfully collaborate
here they can also consider more
official contractional
collaboration in the future.

Their co-complementary industries
and desire to strengthen their
small businesses leads to 
the seed of an organic local
cluster.

They can create
efficiencies and savings within
their local transactions. That could impact
the cost of cluster imputs but
also improve the reach of outputs. Those
businesses have an advantage over others.
(Theoretically)
Bankruptcies appear to be rising, and the trend seems relatively broad rather than concentrated in a single industry. When bankruptcies are confined to one sector, they often reflect changes specific to that industry. Broader increases, however, may point to more general economic pressures. This would mean it would somewhat an indication of structure influence.

This is not inherently good or bad, as markets naturally evolve—companies expand, fail, and reorganize as part of ongoing economic cycles. If you read through the various analysis you will find that inflation and credit issues seem to be an issue. If so there is going to be an impact on smaller business who do not get the best rates or terms. 

At this stage, there is no clear consensus on the primary cause of the increase. Analysts are offering a wide range of explanations, while other economic indicators continue to perform reasonably well. For now, the most prudent approach is to observe the trend and watch for additional data or indicators that might provide clearer insight.

Some level of bankruptcy is expected during periods of economic adjustment or rejuvenation. What matters most is whether new businesses are forming at a healthy pace. Strong business creation would signal adaptation and resilience, particularly if those new ventures are able to scale and contribute meaningfully to future growth.

(As a thought, if someone were to have a business within a developed cluster would the efficiencies within those clusters create an environment that is more resilient against some costs as companies would have other lower costs/efficiencies when compared to the general market? i.e borrowing costs rise but operational costs decline. Maybe or maybe not? One might also wonder how much advantage and whether that can be measured? Theoretically anway...)

Leading Companies Filing for Bankruptcy 2025

Bankruptcies are Up


Kayaking: A Simple Way to Build Strength and Endurance

Alex realizes that if
he wants to get in really good
shape he should tie bait
to the back of his kayak.
His new invention is
the trolling kayak-delux!
He thinks he could
build some down on
Ludington St.
 I went out kayaking recently using an old kayak that had been sitting next to the boat for about nine or ten years. It had a few holes in it, but I patched them up, and it has been holding up just fine for the past few seasons. There’s something great about being able to hop on a kayak, paddle around the bay, and get a solid workout in—especially on calm mornings.

Sometimes I just jump in and follow a loop that takes me around the bay and back to the boat. It takes about half an hour, making it a quick and efficient workout. Kayaking is excellent for building upper-body strength and core stability. The resistance of the water helps increase muscle density while you’re outside enjoying the weather.

For those interested in more advanced kayaking, there are rapids and other challenging environments to explore. However, for most people, paddling along a river or lake provides more than enough physical benefit and enjoyment.

The key is integrating exercise into your day in a way that feels natural and fun. Kayaking burns roughly 400 calories per hour, and mixing it with other activities—such as cycling, surfing, snowshoeing, or downhill skiing—adds variety and increases overall fitness while reducing the risk of overuse injuries.

I hold a fitness trainer’s license and can help you put together a basic nutrition plan and workout routine tailored to your goals. This can be done virtually, or in person if we happen to be in the same area. Send a message to the right. 

Kayaking Calories Burned

Saturday, December 27, 2025

The Value of Insight When System Improvements are Need (The Story of the Clan)

How does one respond when corruption and hate are openly protected, when there are many victims yet no meaningful accountability? History shows that this is not a new problem and there are others who may have their own special brand of this story. The “story of the clan” serves as a philosophical thought experiment illustrating what happens when justice defaults and does not feel a greater responsibility to the insitution or the people it serves. Slicing and dicing people's value not based in merit. Smacking of dehumanization that is the root of collectivization in one potential future (i.e. "those people"). 

(It is a learning story so keep that in mind and think of this through a philosophical lens).

Allegory of the Cave
teaches us that only insight 
can provide a level of knowledge that
helps us understand the root
of problems. It leads to sharing
that wisdom with others.
 
The importance of this learning story lies in what it reveals: the moment we accept the idea that certain people are effectively second-class citizens, we must also acknowledge that the system itself requires fundamental improvement. Yet the rhetoric of hate often extends beyond a corrupt “clan court” and moves upward through institutional hierarchies, where values of exclusion are normalized. In other words, nothing happens in a vaccum so you want to look at the situation and the context in which it was created. We can learn from thought experiments because we can explore ideas in possibility.

Imagine, for a moment, that the people acting ethically are the victims themselves and the broader community members who still understand the value of neighborliness and shared responsibility. Good people who believe in good things (If you talk to the average person you will see the same goodness). Practices such as informal immunities, favoritism, and preferential treatment within clan-based systems have been widely recognized for years. Negative social and economic impact until hate and corruption were challenged. Despite this awareness, little has changed in checks-and-balances, allowing harmful behaviors to persist and become entrenched over time. It becomes an issue of level of commitment to aligning word and deed.

Those who recognize how corruption functions—and who possess the moral strength to oppose it—carry a responsibility to protect the next diverse generation as best they can. Standing for higher ethical principles is rarely popular and often comes at a personal cost (It is intended that way.). Yet maintaining integrity means upholding shared values and civic oaths, even when others choose self-interest over justice. You can learn from hate and let your values be forged and molded by the hot fire and cooled by the grace of wisdom to create a moral steel that few in society can gain without extreme test. They can make up stories and spread them but we all know why groups like this do this-it has something to do with responsibility. 

For this reason, the story of the clan is not merely an account of a single place, incident, or moment in time. It reflects a broader pattern in society since the beginning of collective existence. Where ethical leadership and community solidarity prevail, social and economic opportunity grows. Where corruption and hate dominate, innovation is stifled, newcomers are discouraged "clikish", institutional trust erodes, and community cohesion weakens. Like Plato’s allegory of the cave, those entrenched in these systems often cannot see the harm they cause—or the lasting ripple effects their actions impose on the collective conscience. Time answers all questions...

*This is a philosophical story so feel free to change around the elements and come to whatever conclusion you desire.