Fed Chair Warsh Delivers First Jackson Hole Keynote

The Federal Reserve chairman’s discussion of the state of the economy is particularly interesting. In his speech, he focused on the integration of artificial intelligence into the economy and the significant changes that AI could bring to productivity, employment, and economic decision-making. He also discussed reducing the Fed’s reliance on forward guidance, which would give policymakers greater flexibility to respond to changing economic conditions. At the same time, this approach could encourage financial markets to develop more independent expectations rather than simply reflecting the Fed’s projections.

Summary of Transcripts

• AI Economic Integration: The Fed is evaluating AI as a potential new factor of production, establishing a task force on productivity and jobs to study how massive capital investments in AI infrastructure influence economic growth, employment, and monetary policy.

• Reframing Forward Guidance: The speaker argues for limiting explicit forward guidance during normal economic times to preserve policy flexibility and avoid a "hall of mirrors" dynamic where central banks and financial markets simply reflect each other's expectations.

• Core Policy Principles: Operational framework relies on contemporaneous data trends over isolated metrics, a firm 2% PCE price stability target, short-term interest rates as the primary policy lever, and careful monitoring of total money creation.

• Broad Economic Strength: General economic performance remains robust with strong consumer spending and rising corporate capital expenditures—over half of which is driven by AI infrastructure—alongside a stable labor market holding at 4.1% unemployment.

• Priority on Inflation: With the 12-month PCE inflation rate standing at 3.7% and over half of its component basket increasing above 3%, bringing inflation back down to the 2% target remains the Federal Reserve's primary focus.

The Bohemian Beach Style for Men-"You got that ...."

 Thinking about wardrobe, I recently started updating some of my clothes. Things get old, especially when you’re more of an outdoor person and your clothing actually gets used. Eventually, it gets to the point where you have to admit, “Yeah, these pants have had a good life,” and into the trash they go. As you get older, though, you also realize you need less stuff and more of the things you actually like. I pretty much know how many pairs of pants I need, how many casual outfits I need, and what works for different situations. As things wear out, I replace them with something new. I occasionally pay attention to what’s in fashion, too. I’m not exactly Mr. Fashion, although I can be—and have been—at various points in my life. It really depends on whether I’m interested at the time. For the most part, though, I like practical clothing that fits my outdoor lifestyle. Even when I’m dressing up for an event, there’s usually going to be a little outdoorsy flavor to it. Maybe it’s a vest, maybe it’s a slightly looser pair of pants, but there’s usually some practical reason behind what I’m wearing. Fashion is nice, but if I can’t move in it, I’m probably not buying it.

(Illustrative Only)
Sort of like this.🙃

Recently, I was shopping at one of my favorite stores: Costco. Yes, Costco. They actually have some pretty good clothes, and you can pick up nice stuff at a reasonable price (I was looking for coffee and jeans.). Every once in a while, though, you have to venture outside your normal shopping territory and see what else is out there. Anyway, I was going through the checkout when one of the employees looked at me and said, “Wow, you really have that Johnny Depp thing going on.” Apparently, I had accidentally wandered into a fashion category without even knowing it. Apparently, the Johnny Depp look is a little relaxed, a little bohemian, a mix of old and new, non conformist, slightly messy but uniquely stylish. In other words, I looked like I had a plan, even though I really didn't.

What I was wearing wasn't particularly complicated: a blue button-up shirt, not buttoned all the way to the top, brown linen pants because it was hot, and sandals. The piece that really pulled everything together, though, was a leather necklace. I actually know how to make these. A friend made this one for me, and after learning how, I made a couple for other people. They liked them enough that they still wear them, so I guess I haven't completely embarrassed myself as a craftsperson. I like homemade things because crafting is an art skill that seems to have faded somewhat in the United States. Previous generations made a lot of these things themselves, and I enjoy keeping some of those skills alive. This particular necklace is pretty simple—some beads, a leather strap, and a casual design—but it adds a little something to an otherwise ordinary outfit. Apparently, it adds enough to make somebody think Johnny Depp.

My hair probably helped, too. It’s a little longer than normal right now. I’m used to keeping it short, partly because of firefighting, outdoor activities, and just my general lifestyle. But I made a bet with one of my AMVETS friends, who is also a veteran. Neither of us has really grown our hair long before, so we decided neither of us would cut it for a year. The loser has to buy the winner a mini pitcher of beer, which costs about three dollars in Michigan. So, obviously, this is now a matter of principle. I refuse to lose a three-dollar beer bet. If necessary, I may have to endure another bad hair day—or several hundred of them—to protect my investment.

Put it all together—the longer hair, leather necklace, linen pants, blue shirt, and sandals—and apparently the outfit worked. The funny thing is, I wasn't even trying. Sometimes you just accidentally put the right pieces together and end up looking like you know what you're doing. I actually like this combination because it works in a lot of situations. I can wear it during the day, go to the beach, go shopping, grab lunch, or wander around town, and it doesn't look out of place. It's comfortable, practical, and still has a little style.

I probably wouldn't wear it to a really high-end restaurant at night unless it was one of those upscale beach-casual places where looking slightly beach casual is apparently a feature rather than a problem. But for everyday life, it works pretty well. And the best part? I didn't even have to try to be fashionable. Apparently, sometimes you just put on your clothes, walk out the door, and accidentally become Johnny Depp.

(Ok...I'm taking the complement, they are rare, so appreciate when they come :)

Dress and the Psychology of First Impressions

• Clothing, hairstyles, makeup, and accessories play an important role in how people form first impressions, yet dress has historically received less attention in social psychology than facial and physical characteristics.
• The authors argue that dress should be incorporated into models of person perception because people naturally evaluate someone's appearance as a combination of their face, body, clothing, and surrounding context.
• Dress can provide clues about a person's social identity, including perceived occupation, cultural background, gender expression, group affiliation, interests, and other social categories.
• Clothing can also influence perceptions of a person's mental state, social status, wealth, power, and aesthetic preferences. These perceptions are shaped not only by the clothing itself but also by the observer's cultural knowledge, stereotypes, attitudes, and experiences.
• The authors conclude that future research needs to examine dress in more realistic and culturally diverse settings. Understanding how clothing influences perception could improve our understanding of first impressions, social interaction, workplace judgments, and other everyday decisions.

Hester, N., & Hehman, E. (2023). Dress is a fundamental component of person perception. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 27(4), 414–433. https://doi.org/10.1177/10888683231157961

Consumer Sentiment Weakens in August 2026 According to UofM Index of Consumer Sentiment

 Consumer sentiment took a notable step backward in August 2026, according to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. The index fell 6.3% from July and was more than 11% below its level in August 2025, suggesting that consumers are becoming increasingly cautious about the economy.

That decline could eventually affect consumer spending, which is an important driver of business sales and overall economic growth. When consumers begin to feel a financial pinch, they may reduce discretionary spending, creating additional pressure on businesses.

The latest numbers highlight the mixed nature of the economy. While some economic indicators continue to point toward stability and modest growth, it remains unclear where that growth is coming from and how sustainable it will be. At the same time, declining consumer confidence suggests that the average consumer—and potentially the average worker—may be feeling more economic pressure than broader economic measures indicate.

Consumer Sentiment Weakens Sharply in August 2026

• The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.7 in August 2026, down 6.3% from July and 11.2% below August 2025.
• The Current Economic Conditions Index declined 5.3% from July to 51.9, suggesting consumers became less positive about current economic conditions.
• The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped 7.0% to 51.5, indicating growing concerns about future economic conditions.
• Inflation remains a major concern. One-year inflation expectations decreased slightly from 4.2% to 4.0%, but remained considerably above the 3.4% level recorded before the Iran conflict. Long-run inflation expectations remained at 3.3%.
• Consumers are increasingly concerned about the broader economy, with expected business conditions declining significantly for both the one-year and five-year outlooks. Older, lower- and middle-income consumers, and those without stock holdings experienced particularly large declines in sentiment.

University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research. (2026, August 28). Surveys of consumers: Final results for August 2026. University of Michigan. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

July 2026 Wider Trade Deficit and Rising Inventories-A Few Things to Avoid

 The trade deficit widened in July 2026, which is something we would like to avoid. Exports declined while imports increased, meaning Americans are purchasing more foreign-produced goods. Ideally, we want to produce more high-value products here in the United States and compete effectively in global markets.

Of course, that depends on the types of products we are trying to compete with. Many countries can produce certain goods at a lower cost. However, when we leverage technology, develop strong human capital, and build industry clusters (innovative environments), we might have greater opportunities to increase exports (In theory). It is not a one-to-one relationship, though. A lot of factors have to align to produce goods and services that are in demand in other countries.

Like most countries, we have areas where we perform well and areas where we need improvement. Ideally, we would like to see this trend reverse so that we are creating more value domestically and selling more products overseas. That is one reason it is important for companies to continue manufacturing in the United States rather than moving production overseas simply because it may provide a slightly higher short-term profit.

Developing domestic markets (small, medium and large businesses, and improving the overall economic environment can strengthen competitiveness and create a better context for long-term economic growth.

*This blog is about exploring concepts so opinions can be the same, counter, change, etc....its all ok. We are learning. 

Advance Economic Indicators: July 2026 Shows a Wider Trade Deficit and Rising Inventories

• The U.S. international trade deficit in goods increased to $118.8 billion in July 2026, up $17.4 billion from $101.4 billion in June.
• July exports declined by $6.0 billion to $199.4 billion, while imports increased by $11.4 billion to $318.2 billion.
• Wholesale inventories increased 1.3% in July to approximately $959.1 billion and were 5.7% higher than a year earlier.
• Retail inventories increased 0.7% in July to approximately $838.5 billion and were 3.8% higher than July 2025.
• Overall, the report provides an early look at trade and inventory conditions. Rising inventories may indicate that businesses are preparing for continued demand, although the larger trade deficit reflects stronger imports relative to exports.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2026, August 27). Advance economic indicators report: July 2026. U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/current/index.html

Unemployment Claims Ending August 22nd, 2026 Declined Indicating Stability in the Labor Market

 The week ending August 22, 2026, looked pretty good, so that is a positive sign. The labor market appears relatively stable, and that is something we like to see. Of course, we want to see as many people working as possible. However, job numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt because they do not necessarily capture people who have dropped out of the labor market or other factors that can affect the numbers. Still, on the surface, this looks pretty good. It would be helpful to know more about what is happening beneath the surface, but based on this report, this is not bad news. A recent rise in disposable income also complements this report.

Unemployment Claims Show a Generally Stable Labor Market

• Initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 203,000 for the week ending August 22, down from the revised 207,000 reported the previous week.
• The four-week moving average increased slightly to 205,500, suggesting that while weekly claims declined, the broader trend remains relatively stable.
• Insured unemployment declined by 18,000 to 1.778 million, while the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%.
• Compared with the same period in 2025, initial claims and insured unemployment remain lower, indicating fewer workers are receiving unemployment benefits than a year ago.
• Overall, the report suggests a relatively stable labor market. Initial claims are considered a leading indicator of labor-market conditions, while continued claims provide confirmation of broader economic trends.

U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. (2026, August 27). Unemployment insurance weekly claims. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The Value of Art: A Fiew Pieces to Ponder (Photography and Painting)

Painting example

Art is a nice little hobby that gets you away from your desk or computer on a regular basis. Sometimes I even sell a few pieces. I recently sold two: I already gave one to the buyer, who had purchased one from me before, and someone else had already asked for dibs on the other.

More importantly, art gives you an opportunity to slow down and create new connections in your brain. It is relaxing, but it also creates space for reflection. When you're painting, observing, or simply thinking about the simple things in life, you may find yourself mulling over an idea or problem. Then, suddenly, the answer comes to you.

Our brains process an enormous amount of information throughout the day. When we finally slow down, we give ourselves an opportunity to reflect, make connections, and develop solutions. Art also teaches us to see things from different perspectives—to notice something in a way we may not have seen it before. That ability to look at the world differently can open new pathways for creativity and innovation.

Photography example

We should also appreciate history and art because they are deeply connected to what makes us human. Across thousands of years, art has preserved stories, experiences, emotions, and ways of life from one generation to the next. We can accumulate all the technology we want, but these deeply human experiences have carried us from our earliest ancestors to the present.

Art, then, is not simply a frivolous or extra but a part of who we are as a species.

Check out my Gallery below. There is a $10 discount ($70 vs $80) or buying from me direct. Free shipping. I try and give a little to charity with each purchase. If there is something specific you need then send me a message to the right or use muradabel@gmail.com 

Art Gallery (Painting and Photos)

$70 Purchase Painting Pay Pal

$60 for photos (Rights to Use or Printing)

Art Gallery eBay (Paintings)

Personal Income and Consumer Spending Rise in July 2026-More Spending on Services and Less on Goods

Personal income and consumer spending both increased, which are positive signs following the decline in the prior month. However, the increases were relatively modest. Disposable income also rose slightly, while the personal savings rate remained relatively low. This suggests that although people are earning and spending a little more, they may not be setting aside much of that additional income. n

Some of the services where they are spending their money may be expenses out of the consumers control while goods has some flexibility if you can't afford it right now. Maybe, maybe not. 

Personal Income and Consumer Spending Continue to Rise in July 2026

1. Personal income increased $115.1 billion, or 0.4%, in July, while disposable personal income rose $125.9 billion, or 0.5%.

   

   Source 

2. Consumer spending increased $36.3 billion, or 0.2%, indicating that households continued to contribute to economic activity despite relatively modest overall growth.
3. The increase in spending was concentrated in services, which rose $86.2 billion, while spending on goods declined $49.9 billion. Real consumer spending increased less than 0.1%.
4. Inflation remained relatively moderate in July, with the PCE price index increasing 0.2%. Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.2%.
5. Personal saving totaled $712 billion, but the personal saving rate was only 3.0% of disposable income. Overall, the report suggests that income and consumer demand remain positive, although the limited growth in real consumption and low saving rate could indicate some pressure on household finances.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026, August 26). Personal income and outlays, July 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026