Fiscal Crossroads-US Treasury Y2025: Debt, Difficult Choices, and the Path to Long-Term Stability

(Illustrative Only)

Samuel sits thinking 
about how to get out
of this mess others 
have made. More
than 20 Years of 
Trends. 

He mulls the concepts
of Economic
Platforms, Perpetual
Sustainable Development,
Economic Synergy,
Attracting Firms,
Shipping
and Human Motivation,
and R&D
wrapped into a 
single flexible system. 
Can't quite
put his finger on it. 
Bounded Rationality

The financial outlook is challenging. Revenues are declining while liabilities remain high, and raising the debt ceiling has become necessary just to meet current obligations. With no clear end in sight, difficult decisions are inevitable—both economically and in how we think about future priorities.

These decisions should be balanced and focused on reducing waste, especially spending driven by short-term or partisan interests. Encouraging independent thinking, open dialogue, and less partisanship can lead to stronger outcomes.

Approaches like broad-based capitalism may help strengthen small and medium-sized businesses while leveraging data and innovation to drive growth. At the same time, decision-makers at the highest levels must act in the broader public interest. Improving contract bidding processes and prioritizing merit over connections can also contribute to better fiscal management.

Much of the current situation has developed over decades, but recent trends suggest it is worsening. Moving forward, the focus should be on long-term financial stability and creating a healthier economic future for the next generation. That means generating new value, strengthening economic fundamentals, encouraging innovation, supporting community development, and investing in human capital—alongside more disciplined fiscal decision-making at the top.

It may be time to rethink some of our core assumptions.

U.S. Treasury FY 2025 Financial Condition and Insolvency Risks Summary:

• The federal government continues operating on structurally high borrowing, issuing $30 trillion in securities in FY 2025 and raising $2 trillion in new cash, highlighting a persistent gap between revenues and obligations that reflects long-term fiscal imbalance
• Avoidance of default required raising the debt limit by $5 trillion, indicating that without legislative intervention the government would face liquidity constraints consistent with technical insolvency risk
• Ongoing reliance on debt markets and refinancing maturing obligations underscores exposure to interest rate risk and rollover risk, both of which can accelerate insolvency pressures if borrowing costs rise or demand weakens
• Efforts to improve payment integrity and reduce fraud signal recognition that waste, improper payments, and inefficiencies exacerbate fiscal strain and indirectly contribute to long-term solvency concerns
• The report emphasizes the need to return to a “fiscally sustainable trajectory,” acknowledging that current financial practices are not sustainable over time without structural changes to spending, revenue, or both
• While no immediate insolvency is declared, the combination of rising debt, continued deficits, and dependence on borrowing indicates elevated long-term insolvency risk if corrective fiscal policies are not implemented

U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2026). Agency financial report fiscal year 2025. home.treasury.gov/system/files/266/Treasury-FY-2025-AFR.pdf

Workers Feel Stuck Amid Economic Uncertainty

(Illustrative Only)

A Gallup poll shows that workers are more pessimistic than in the past. Overall well-being has declined, and fewer people believe it is a good time to find a job. While over half of workers are looking for new opportunities, many are struggling to get interviews.

With a moderately high unemployment rate, financial concerns and job insecurity are adding to the pressure. As a result, many workers feel stuck in their current positions.

There is no simple solution, since much of the job market is outside individual control. However, people can take small steps to improve their situation, such as building skills, continuing education, starting a small business, and managing their finances more carefully. Definately not a cure all. 

In the long term, encouraging small and medium-sized businesses through broad-based capitalism may help create more job opportunities and keep money in the hands of communities and individuals. For now, many workers are hoping for improved conditions in the job market.

U.S. Worker Thriving Declines as Job Market Pessimism Grows

• Worker wellbeing has declined, with 46% of employees “thriving” and 49% “struggling,” marking a reversal from prior trends
• Confidence in the job market has dropped sharply, with only 28% saying it is a good time to find a quality job
• Over half of workers (51%) are looking for or open to new job opportunities, yet many face difficulty securing interviews
• A large portion of workers feel stuck in their current roles due to financial concerns, job security, and perceived risks of switching
• The labor market is described as “restless but stuck,” where dissatisfaction is rising but mobility is limited, potentially impacting productivity and retention

Gallup. (2026). U.S. worker thriving declines as job market pessimism grows. https://www.gallup.com/workplace/703280/worker-thriving-declines-job-market-pessimism-grows.aspx

Annual Outlook 2026: Not so Sure on Growth, Risks and Resilience

(Illustrative Only)

Ayam lives out in 
Rapid River and looked
into his economic
crystal ball. 
He can't see anything
clearly so 
he projects
the flowers will come
out once the snow melts
and it gets warmer. 

The global economy is expected to remain relatively steady, with growth around 2.7%. This reflects moderate performance—neither particularly strong nor weak. Key factors influencing growth include artificial intelligence investment, government policy, and overall market confidence.

In the United States, growth is projected at about 2.1%. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions could still affect economic outcomes. The labor market is expected to stay stable, with unemployment holding at manageable levels.

Many CEOs are less confident about revenue growth this year, highlighting continued uncertainty. While AI remains a major focus for businesses, not all companies have seen the financial returns they anticipated.

Additional concerns include tariffs and broader global risks. Overall, the outlook suggests a familiar environment of cautious growth and ongoing uncertainty, requiring businesses and policymakers to adapt as conditions evolve.

Read the report and make your own thoughts. Seems like we are just not sure what is going to happen.

Annual outlook 2026: Global growth, risks, and resilience

• Global economic growth is expected to remain steady but modest, with GDP projected around 2.7% in 2026, reflecting resilience despite uneven momentum across regions
• Economic stability increasingly depends on a narrower set of drivers, especially artificial intelligence (AI) investment, government policy support, and financial market confidence
• In the United States, growth is forecast at about 2.1%, supported by strong consumer spending and continued investment in AI, data centers, and digital infrastructure
• The labor market is expected to remain stable, with unemployment around 4.4%, though inflation trends are uneven across sectors
• Energy dynamics are shifting, with lower oil prices helping control inflation while rising electricity demand—especially from AI-related infrastructure—pushes some costs higher
• Business leaders face growing uncertainty, with only about 30% of CEOs confident in revenue growth, marking a significant decline from previous years
• AI is a major dividing line in business performance; while heavily invested, many firms have not yet realized meaningful financial returns
• Only a small portion of companies report both cost savings and revenue gains from AI, while more than half report no significant benefits so far
• Key risks shaping the outlook include geopolitical tensions, tariffs, cyber threats, and the challenge of keeping pace with rapid technological change
• Overall, the 2026 outlook highlights a resilient but fragile global economy, where growth depends heavily on successful technological adoption and strategic adaptation

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). (2026). Annual outlook 2026: Global growth, risks, and resilience. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/about-us/newsroom/press-releases/annual-outlook-2026.html

Take the Escanaba Recreation Survey: Health and Happiness

(Illustrative Only)

I'm not a dinghy, 
I know how to
to maximize my
downtime.

Innovation comes
from simple
blank spaces.
Escanaba is
a place executive
minds can wander
into new discoveries
Blank Spaces
and Innovation

Jack thinks of
ways to
maximize recreation
value while
catching perch.

Adventure Tourism SME
and
Esky Smart City

Recreation is more than simply spending time outdoors or socializing with friends. While it certainly includes those activities, it also plays a meaningful role in strengthening community engagement, supporting tourism, and enhancing overall community well-being. There is even such a thing as a “happiness rating” for cities, and higher ratings are often associated with increased social activity and a better quality of life. These factors can, in turn, attract tourism and contribute to broader economic and social growth. Best Places to Live in Delta County-Niche

Take 5 minute Escanaba Recreation Survey

According to the study referenced below, recreation can significantly improve both the overall health and happiness of residents.

Perceived health outcomes of recreation and happiness: exploring the mediating role of resilience

• Study examined how participation in recreational (leisure) activities relates to perceived health, happiness, and psychological resilience
• Sample included 451 adults from multiple regions of Turkey, using survey-based measures of health outcomes, resilience, and happiness
• Recreational activities were found to positively influence perceived health outcomes
• Perceived health outcomes had a direct positive effect on happiness
• Perceived health outcomes also had a positive effect on resilience
• Resilience significantly increased happiness levels, showing a strong psychological role
• Resilience partially mediated the relationship between recreation and happiness, meaning recreation improves happiness both directly and indirectly through resilience
• Findings suggest that engaging in leisure activities enhances both physical and psychological well-being
• Study highlights resilience as an important mechanism linking recreation to overall life satisfaction and happiness
• Supports the promotion of recreational and physical activities as a way to improve mental health and well-being

Sarol, H., Çimen Polat, S., & Ekinci, E. (2024). Perceived health outcomes of recreation and happiness: Exploring the mediating role of resilience. Frontiers in Public Health, 12, 1383367. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11422232/

Patching Cracks in Justice: Hate That Overwhelms Systems

(Illustrative Only)

The next generation
has rights as well
and that doesn't
come out much
in vetted 
special interest
oriented
decision making. 
Patching cracks in the
wall to keep
the next generation safe.
Enlightenment
principles of human
value.

Hate has a corrosive effect on society. When it is tolerated in one instance, it often spreads into others. A type of metric of what is acceptable. From the beginning, laws and institutions were designed to protect people from those who misuse power and hatred for harmful purposes. Wrongdoing should not be incentivized because its convenient or accepted in some circles.

In our thought experiment over the past several years, we’ve explored how normalizing hate as a basis for justice can lead to broader consequences. We call this the Story of the Clan which explores a near complete default in justice based on hate and corruption. In the philosophical story people were financially and socially incentivized for targeting out-group members for mistreatment, manipulating cultic groups to spread rumors/social ostricization and seeking the removal of others from the area they deemed sub human, 2nd class citizens or not in alignment with in-group collective delusions. Their beliefs spared no one ranging from children for racial reasons, silenced intellectuals and concerned citizens, the elderly who were easy to exploit financially, veterans for exercising reasonable free speech, and people supporting religious freedom. Such behaviors created a pattern that reached into other victims through embedded "good ol' boy" corruption from years of blind eye protections and inappropriate immunities.

 Years later some extreme members of the Clan were continuing to retaliate against whistleblowers whose information was purposely shared with some of the Clan members to pressure witnesses into silence. Hatred often begins with the actions of a few individuals, then grows when combined with corruption, unmet psychological needs, and social tensions that are projected onto others. If hate mixes with lack of checks and balances it runs its course down the darkest of paths. It can only follow a path if the underpinnings of that path where already latently present.

Over time, this can show up in more visible ways—such as dehumanizing language (i.e. comparing people to animals), attempts to limit religious freedom to certain groups, devaluing contributions to society, or redefining free speech to fit a narrow viewpoint. These attitudes can also influence economic and social outcomes, shaping how groups perceive value, trust, and cooperation.

At the same time, the exercise shows that most people remain committed to shared values and positive contributions, even if they are less vocal. Those who promote division are often louder, but they do not represent the majority. They are attempting to harm others for self gain (Hate and corruption follow similar patterns of neural networks and thinking through series of justifications.)

Philosophers across traditions have long emphasized that focusing on shared principles, building relationships, and caring for others reduces hatred and its ripple effects. Rejecting hate strengthens freedom and supports the conditions that drive development, innovation, and long-term prosperity. Merit is important than vetted narratives. 

"Men are equal; it is not birth but virtue that makes the difference". Voltaire

In Hate We Trust: The Collectivization and Habitualization of Hatred:

• Hatred is characterized by an overgeneralized and indeterminate focus, where individuals target entire groups rather than specific actions or traits, leading to the collectivization of those perceived as “others.”
• The intensity of hatred does not primarily arise from the actual behavior or qualities of its targets, but from a sustained emotional commitment to the attitude of hatred itself.
• Hatred becomes socially reinforced when shared among groups, creating a collective identity that strengthens in-group cohesion while deepening hostility toward outsiders.
• Through repeated social sharing and reinforcement, hatred develops into a habitual emotional pattern (habitus), making it more stable and resistant to change over time.
• This process creates a self-reinforcing cycle, where collective hatred sustains itself through social dynamics, narratives, and mutual validation within groups.

Szanto, T. (2020). In hate we trust: The collectivization and habitualization of hatred. Phenomenology and the Cognitive Sciences, 19(3), 453–480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11097-018-9604-9

*This is a hypothetical, philosophical, theoretical thought experiment for mental exploration. Feel free to change the elements and come to any conclusion you desire. 

UN State of Global Climate 2025: We Start and Return to Nature-Ice Formations in Munising

Munising Ice
Formation 1

Nature is where we begin, and ultimately where we return. In Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, nature is a defining part of life—wild, open, and often untouched. Wildlife moves freely, the water remains clean, and people tend to reflect that same grounded, good-natured character.

At the same time, global climate change is affecting every corner of the planet, including places like this. While alternative energy sources are part of the solution, they are still developing and may not yet fully meet our growing energy demands. That’s why pursuing multiple forms of energy independence—both at the regional level and at home—can be a practical path forward.

I recently spent time in Munising, about an hour north of Escanaba, capturing some winter scenes. Much of the area is closed this time of year, but a few spots remain accessible. The ice formations are especially striking, and some even attract ice climbers tackling the more challenging routes—something I’d like to try myself, given my climbing background.

We all share a responsibility to protect nature, and there are real—often overlooked—costs when we fail to do so. While the need for affordable energy is clear, so is the importance of sustainability and energy diversity. (Global Climate and the UP)

As an amateur photographer, I’m happy to share my work. If you’re interested in any of the photos, feel free to reach out with what you’re looking for, and I can arrange printing and provide a quote. Color of sky is not great. 

Munising Ice Formation 2

WMO State of the Global Climate 2025:

• greenhouse gas concentrations (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O) reached record highs, with CO₂ at 423.9 ppm in 2024—the highest in at least 2 million years
• global mean temperature in 2025 was about 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the second or third warmest year on record
• the past decade (2015–2025) represents the ten warmest years ever recorded
• oceans absorbed about 91% of excess heat, with ocean heat content reaching record highs for nine consecutive years
• sea level has risen about 11 cm since 1993, with the rate of increase accelerating in recent years
• ocean acidification continues, with global surface pH steadily declining due to CO₂ absorption

  

  Munising Ice Formation 3

• glaciers are experiencing significant mass loss, with most of the worst years occurring since 2016
• Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent remain well below historical averages, with multiple record lows in recent years
• Earth’s energy imbalance is increasing, meaning more heat is being trapped in the climate system
• climate change is contributing to cascading impacts such as food insecurity, displacement, biodiversity loss, and increased extreme weather events

APA reference:
World Meteorological Organization. (2026). State of the global climate 2025 (WMO-No. 1391). https://doi.org/10.59327/WMO/S/CRI/SOC1

March 19th, 2026 Escanaba City Council Meeting: Spring is Coming! Events, Flowers, Yacht Clubs and Social Districts in Small City Development

(Illustrative Only)
 
Spring is almost here!
Just as soon as the 4' of
snow melts.
Joe is excited to sail soon
 into Escanaba
to enjoy the spring,
he walked over to
Aronson Island to
read the book
 "Wealth of Nations"
and contemplate
the possibilities of 
the next leg of development.
He mulls concepts such
as broad based capitalism
that includes social 
development
that fosters
local wealth, human
capital, and
ecological development
through humanistic
bottom up approaches.
Economic Platorms in History,
and Perpetual Sustainable
Development.

Other philosophers are 
talking of similar concepts
Peoplelism. Philosophical
development
is an additive process. 

Another productive Escanaba City Council meeting took place on March 19, 2026, with strong emphasis on citizen input to generate feedback and guide decision-making. A key topic was the Escanaba Yacht Club, including its community benefits and plans to increase public awareness through local media, encouraging engagement, fostering water safety, and supporting tourism by highlighting recreational opportunities.

The agenda also included a proposed social district, fundraising events, street closures for activities like the upcoming block party, and plans for a new municipal dock restroom—each contributing to quality-of-life improvements. Additionally, the approval of new ballistic vests for law enforcement reflects continued investment in public safety. Some preliminary information may indicate household income is up substantially, crime is down, and influence of economic and social development continues (i.e. in theory micro transactions that create long-tail vitality.)

Overall, the city appears to be making steady progress, with signs of growth and development as the local economy strengthens in Escanaba creating increased draw for the broader Upper Peninsula as well as reconnecting to the global market.

City Council March 17th 2026 Meeting Page with the agenda.

• City Council meeting scheduled for March 19, 2026, in Escanaba, Michigan, including standard procedures such as roll call, agenda approval, and public comments
• Public hearing focused on citizen input for the 2026–2027 fiscal year budget, noted as the third of five planned hearings
• Unfinished business includes consideration of a lease agreement with the Escanaba Yacht Club, outlining terms for property use and community engagement
• New business items include approval of a social district application, street closures for community fundraising events, and funding for municipal dock restroom design ($32,945)
• Proposal to purchase ballistic vests for public safety officers totaling approximately $59,653
• Introduction of Ordinance No. 1318 regarding Zoning Board of Appeals (ZBA) membership, with a second reading scheduled for April 2, 2026
• Update provided on negotiations for hiring a new City Manager
• Closed session planned to discuss legal strategy in a pending federal lawsuit involving the City of Escanaba
• Prior meeting (March 5, 2026) included approval of a charitable gaming license and a special event street closure for a block party
• Council approved infrastructure and recreation expenditures, including epoxy flooring repairs and a new playground purchase
• Ordinance related to winter parking restrictions failed to pass during the March 5 meeting
• City Manager hiring process advanced with a motion to offer the position to a candidate pending negotiations and background checks
• Lease agreement details specify a 10-year renewable term with the Escanaba Yacht Club, including public access, community programming, and maintenance responsibilities
• Design-build contract outlines plans for new municipal dock restrooms, including ADA compliance, four unisex stalls, and completion targeted by September 30, 2026

City of Escanaba. (2026, March 19). City council meeting agenda and supporting documents. https://www.escanaba.org/citycouncil/meeting/city-council-regular-meeting-171

Size is Not the Biggest Factor for Investment and Growth:

Escanaba and surrounding area is further finding momentum in its reemergence as a destination location for investment and development based around its unique attributes related to industry, entrepreneurship, skilled trade/college, and quality of life. Let us consider a few things that appear to be forming in that deveopment. Economic size is not the primary factor in the modern economy but the overall way in which local, national, and international elements align.

One approach to maximizing small city market relevance is to build a balanced local economy by supporting anchor businesses across complementary—but distinct—industries (i.e. co-complementary clusters). This helps maximize both growth and stability while reducing overreliance on a single sector. At the same time, fostering downtown startups can strengthen the urban core, attract new investment, and generate scalable businesses that contribute to local tax revenue now and in the future.

Tourism (i.e. recreation, yacht clubs, beaches, parks, tourism, boats, thriving downtown, cultural events such as Native American heritage or lumberjack festivals,  etc. ) can further support development by promoting a desirable lifestyle, which helps attract and retain skilled workers while improving overall quality of life. When these elements align effectively, they create a cohesive, workable system that generates synergy and sustained economic growth.

As a side not consider the study below and how economic growth is non-linear and how smaller cities can build real value. 

• Economic growth is not driven solely by large cities; smaller cities (especially under 500,000 people) have often been more important sources of growth, particularly in smaller and mid-sized countries
• The relationship between city size and economic growth is non-linear and depends on national context—very large cities mainly boost growth in countries with large overall urban populations
• Factors such as infrastructure, governance, and industry composition determine whether large cities generate economic benefits, meaning bigger cities are not always more effective than smaller ones

Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Frick, S. (2017, October 20). Big or small cities: On city size and economic growth. Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/big-or-small-cities-city-size-and-economic-growth