Federal Reserve FOMC Maintains 3.75 -4%: What Does Interest Rate do to GDP?

Interest rates are always top of mind for business leaders and politicians. The Federal Reserve recently voted 10–2 to keep the target federal funds rate steady at 3.75% to 4%. Even so, those two dissenting votes show that support for raising rates is building.

Right now, the underlying economy is doing well. Growth is expanding, consumer spending and investment are holding up, productivity is up, and the workforce remains stable. With things on solid ground, there’s no urgent pressure to cut rates—leaving holding steady or hiking rates as the most realistic paths forward.

(Illustrative Only)
Meanwhile
deep in the forest...
Does interest rates
impact production?
Nut production
in Hiawatha Forest

Sorry just being silly.

The stakes around these decisions are huge because interest rates act as a macro throttle: a 1% rate cut expands GDP by 0.8% within a year, while a 1% hike pulls it back by 0.6%

Key Statistics on GDP Growth & Interest Rate Cuts

• Impact of Rate Cuts on GDP: Historical Federal Reserve data shows that a 1% cut in interest rates is capable of boosting GDP growth by approximately 0.5% to 0.8% within a span of a year.

• Impact of Rate Hikes: Conversely, rate hikes of the same magnitude (1%) typically reduce GDP growth by around 0.6% due to restrained consumption and investment.

Rosenberg Research. (2025, May 23). The impact of interest rates on the economy. Rosenberg Research. https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/2025/05/23/the-impact-of-interest-rates-on-the-economy/

Reading the interest rates allows one to better grasp how decisions were made. 

Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement on Interest Rates and Economic Conditions

• The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10 to 2 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent.

• Board members Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented from the decision, preferring a 1/4 percentage point rate increase.

• Economic activity continues to expand at a strong pace, supported by resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth, and robust capital investment.

• Job gains have matched workforce growth, leaving the unemployment rate little changed, though inflation remains elevated.

• The central bank intends to evaluate incoming information to determine the appropriate policy stance for returning inflation to its 2 percent goal.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, October 28). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm

*If you like these articles consider supporting them through buying art, advertising space or simply just buy me a cup of coffee. 

September 2026 Trade Deficit Moving In Wrong Direction: Could the Trade Balance Be Helped by Small Business?

The ongoing trade deficit remains a key concern, showing that current economic strategies are not delivering the desired results. This issue is not a recent development from the last four years, but rather a long-term trend that has persisted for decades.

(Illustrative Only)
This family
loads their products
on a boat an that
heads for Detroit
and Chicago where
it is shipped out. 
One might wonder
what start-ups
in Delta County
might have a good
chance of exporting
with the right direction
and help. 

Looking at broader historical trends, the decline of small businesses and family farms during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s coincided with a growing concentration of wealth and a reduced capacity for domestic exports. The financial incentive to relocate operations overseas to lower costs undermined local economies. Previously, strong small businesses supported vibrant downtowns, local manufacturing, and family-owned enterprises, all of which fostered balanced regional economic health.

While not a definitive answer, this pattern suggests that as economic power concentrates among fewer large entities, overall national capacity may suffer. Although individual corporations expand their reach, broader economic growth could prove stronger and more resilient with a healthier balance across small, medium, and large businesses. 

It just depends on whose theories we follow. What one can say is that small business is back on the rise while the reasons are not fully known but some studies indicate it is a backlash against this over concentration. Part of a more natural adaptation. 

There is no right or wrong but only a discussion. 

U.S. Advance Economic Indicators Report: September 2026

• The advance goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September, representing an increase of $2.8 billion (or 2.1 percent) from the August deficit of $132.1 billion.

• Advance goods exports for September increased by 2.6 percent to reach a five-month high, driven by a 12.8 percent rebound in foods, feeds, and beverages, while automotive exports declined by 5.6 percent.

• Advance goods imports for September rose by 2.4 percent to a record high, led by a 7.5 percent increase in capital goods imports, while industrial supplies and materials imports decreased by 6.0 percent.

• Preliminary wholesale inventories for September were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,011.5 billion, reflecting ongoing month-over-month shifts in commercial stock levels.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2026). Advance economic indicators report: September 2026 (Report No. 2609). U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/2026/advance_report2609.pdf

Getting that Swim Coach Uniform-Successful Coaching Behaviors

Finally got my swim coach uniform for meets, which was nice! It says, "Raised on the Great Lakes, trained in a pool." That’s a great touch, and honestly, pretty accurate. A lot of us grew up on the Great Lakes—swimming, fishing, and falling in love with the water. I still spend as much time on the water as I can.

(Illustrative)

Be one with the
duck!

Floating, gliding,
and paddeling 
all help when
swimming.

So, what actually makes an effective coach? (I've shared a resource below if you're interested.)

To me, an effective coach:

• Delivers actionable feedback: Helps athletes recognize their own areas for growth so they can take ownership of their development.

• Balances positivity with constructive critique: Shares critique in a way that is easy to digest and actually encourages growth.

• Sets clear boundaries: Maintains focus, respect, and structure on the deck.

• Instills true sportsmanship: Sportsmanship is a real indicator of character, and unfortunately, it's something too many coaches and athletes overlook today.

This study has some good ideas as well, 

Successful Coaching Behaviors: Challenges and Opportunities in Relationships

• Health and wellness coaching utilizes motivational strategies and trusting relationships to help individuals achieve long-term physical, psychological, and social well-being.

• Key foundational frameworks include motivational interviewing, the transtheoretical model of change, self-determination theory, the social ecological model, and positive psychology.

• Successful client-coach relationships are driven by shared cultural and demographic characteristics, equal power dynamics, mutual respect, and approachable, non-judgmental coaching qualities.

• Effective communication relies on client-centered dialogue, asking permission before sharing knowledge, utilizing open-ended questions, and focusing on intrinsic, self-created goals.

• When client-coach relationships become stagnant or incompatible due to mismatched personalities or shifting client needs, coaches can utilize lateral referrals to redirect clients to alternative professionals to maintain continuity of care.

Watkins, D., Rock, M., Vaughan, E. M., Kirschmann, J. M., & Johnston, C. A. (2025). Successful coaching behaviors: Challenges and opportunities in relationships. American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine, 19(6), 832–836. https://doi.org/10.1177/15598276251327917

*If you like these free articles feel free to share, buy an art product, advertise or donate. I'll get a cup of coffee. 

Making Pumpkin Pie and Fritters (Cabin and Boat Cooking)

 I was carving up pumpkins the other day because I figured since I bought a couple, I could scrape enough out to make a pie. Turns out I couldn't! So I cheated: the next time I went to the grocery store, I just bought canned pumpkin puree.

I put the puree in a pot, threw in some white sugar, brown sugar, cinnamon, a touch of lemon, and a couple of eggs, evaporated milk and whipped it all together. Then I poured it into a pie shell and baked it around 350°–370°F, keeping an eye on it until the crust was a nice golden brown. After that, I pulled it off the rack and let it cool. I can make my own pie shell. 

(Illustrative Only)
Sometimes it
is ok to cheat while
cooking

People think cooking is super hard, but it’s really not. Sure, if you’re trying to enter a competition, that’s a different story. But if you’re just camp cooking, cooking off a boat, or making a quick meal at home, you don’t need to overcomplicate things. Besides, how do you even have Halloween without pumpkin pie? 

I don't eat much of it myself, but I love slicing it up and passing it out to folks along the way. Most of the time they love it. Occasionally someone gives it a funny look because it’s a bit rustic, but who cares? It’s all about the process.

That’s what you do with extra pumpkins—make pie! Around here in the Upper Peninsula, we’ve got pumpkins everywhere, and plenty of people grow them. It got me thinking about my future hobby farm and whether I should put in a patch of my own. I’m looking for low-maintenance crops. While I get the basics of farming, I’m still pretty green, and this is just for fun. 

Ideally, I’d love a small setup—maybe three or four acres (3 to 4 for crops another 10 for hunting, a couple acres for sheep or horses, and a couple for the house and pond. At least in my wish list).—just so I can throw on my overalls, head down to the local farmers' market with whatever I harvested, make my $50 or $300, and tell everyone I’m out here farming.

We’ve actually got a lot of great, affordable farmland up here. If you’re looking to start an organic farm, raise sheep or cattle, or set up a horse farm, there are some wonderful small properties available. We really love seeing those spots go to actual families who want to bring their kids, settle down, and build a great life here in the U.P. 

The Value of Self Defense to Improve Physical Ability and Psychological Resilience

Let’s talk fitness! Real fitness isn't just about hitting the gym, pumping iron, or taking shortcuts. True fitness means versatility such as running, swimming, getting your balance on with yoga, hiking, dancing, jumping into a volleyball game or anything else. Add a healthy diet into the mix, and that is real fitness.

(Illustrative Only)
Is fitness strength
alone or does it
include flexibility, 
functional muscle,
agility and
endurance capacity?

One enjoyable way to stay fit is self-defense. For decades, it’s just been a fun hobby for me—training at a local dojo alongside some incredibly skilled martial artists. Beyond the physical workout, self-defense gives you something even better: psychological confidence.

Here is the secret: true confidence gives you options. When you aren't afraid, you don't panic or give an attacker the reaction they are looking for. You stay in control. Nine times out of ten, the best self-defense move is using your brain and cool confidence to de-escalate the situation and walk away. True warriors know they have the skills, but they treat them strictly as a last resort. Your mind is always your best defense!

If you ever want help shaking up your fitness routine, hit me up! I’m a certified fitness and yoga trainer with years of sports experience—just send me a message. (And if you’re feeling extra supportive, check out my art and products!)

This study sort of supports that idea, 

Building resilience through self-defense: The role of martial arts in enhancing psychological strength among women.

• The study investigated psychological resilience differences between 407 female martial arts practitioners (Muay Thai, kickboxing, boxing, taekwondo) and 395 female non-practitioners (Pilates participants).

• Female martial arts practitioners demonstrated significantly higher psychological resilience levels in the sub-dimensions of control and challenge compared to the control group.

• Non-martial arts participants scored higher in the commitment sub-dimension.

• Within the martial arts group, resilience varied significantly based on age, prior experience of violence, and smoking status.

• Findings suggest that martial arts training can help enhance specific psychological strengths related to stress management and embracing challenges.

Pekel, A., Turan, M. B., Eraslan, M., Iqbal, M., Pepe, O., Yoka, K., & Yoka, O. (2025). Building resilience through self-defense: The role of martial arts in enhancing psychological strength among women. Frontiers in Psychology, 16, 1592326. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1592326

The Conference Board Indicates Consumer Confidence Increased 7.5% in October 2026

The Conference Board released its October consumer confidence survey, revealing a general rise in optimism across multiple key metrics compared to the previous month. Survey respondents reported improved views on current business conditions and expressed stronger overall expectations for the future. Vacation plans and broader consumer outlooks both saw noticeable upticks, reflecting a positive shift in overall economic sentiment.

While the exact drivers behind this renewed confidence remain open to interpretation, the findings highlight a clear month-over-month bounce. Whether spurred by steadying market conditions or shifting seasonal expectations, the survey offers a surprisingly upbeat signal regarding near-term consumer behavior.

Overview of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

• The Consumer Confidence Survey reflects prevailing business conditions, consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and expectations regarding inflation, stock prices, and interest rates.

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose by 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100), recovering to June levels after prior declines.

• The Present Situation Index increased by 8.6 points to 120.4, driven by more favorable consumer assessments of current business and labor market conditions.

• The Expectations Index increased by 6.9 points to 72.6, reflecting an improvement in short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor markets.

• The underlying data are categorized by consumer age, income brackets, nine distinct geographic regions, and the top eight states.

The Conference Board. (2026). US consumer confidence. Retrieved October 27, 2026, from https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

*If you like these free articles you can support by buying art, advertising space or other. 

Fayette Historical Park (Photography, Paintings, Art)

The other day, a few friends and I took a short trip around the central part of the Upper Peninsula, staying within an hour of Escanaba. We visited Kitch-iti-kipi and then headed over to Fayette Historic State Park.

I love coming here—I've visited a few times now. It always brings to mind the historical reality of people living in relatively harsh, isolated communities. Back then, food and supplies could usually only arrive by water or wagon (or grown). Because both took a long time, residents had to stock up. Eventually, as industries and infrastructure shifted—especially when mining operations moved overseas—places with such purposes like Calumet also eventually became obsolete.

Taking photographs here helps me reflect on the UP's mining potential, as well as how changes in technology always reshape infrastructure. Today, our focus is shifting toward data infrastructure, yet we still rely heavily on metals and physical resources. Figuring out how to balance these needs is vital for maintaining a healthy, robust economy.

At the end of the day, though, this is history captured through a lens. I enjoy photography, and while some of my shots turned out quite nice and others have room for improvement, I invite you to look through my gallery. If you enjoy my writing and want to support the work I'm doing, purchasing a print would be greatly appreciated.

In the meantime, feel free to check out the links below to learn more about what tourism and state parks do for our local economy.

Two Sites:

Fayette Historic Park

Tourism in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula is driving $1.6 billion in annual visitor spending, new study shows

The Art Gallery

The Walking Path Gallery (Painting and Photos)-Price below.

$70 Purchase Painting PayPal

$60 for photos (Rights to Use or Printing)

Art Gallery eBay (Paintings)